May 2, 2025 (press release) –
The movement to shift public school funding from local governments to the state is driven by a core belief that the shift will bring more funding. But that assumption is almost certainly wrong.
The
The implication, pushed by the union's own advocacy, is that
Always downplayed in the coverage of this issue is that
The NEA report pegged
When
Counting all K-12 public school expenditures, including capital and interest,
Many believe that these already high public school expenditures would increase substantially if the state picked up a larger share of the tab. But that ignores the reasons why
State spending, which is tied to enrollment and fluctuating state revenues, does not.
From 2001-2019, total state taxpayer funding to district public schools increased in nominal dollars from about
Most of that decline (83.9%) was caused by falling student enrollments. State spending is tied to enrollment, so a decline in enrollment means a decline in state funding. The remaining 16.1 percent was due to actual increases in state appropriations coming close to, but not quite keeping up with, inflation.
By contrast, total local appropriations, adjusted for inflation, doubled, going from
Supporters of higher state spending claim that local governments spend more because the state spends so little. If that were the case, we'd expect to see local spending rise and fall with enrollment. That would indicate that voters adjust their spending based on need.
Instead, even when enrollment falls significantly, local voters typically approve large increases in public school budgets. Local K-12 public education funding appears driven primarily by voters' desire to spend money on their own children and their own communities.
For decades, local voters in
This dynamic is not evident at the state level.
The state budget, including the
Shifting public education funding entirely to the state would divorce it from the two factors that drive most of its increases: the stability of property tax revenues and parents' desire to invest in their own children.
The same is true, though to a lesser extent, if a larger portion of education funding is shifted to the state.
At the national level, K-12 public education spending also has trended up even as enrollment has fallen, as the NEA's own data show. The teachers union's report finds that enrollment fell by 2.5% and average daily attendance fell by 4.2% from the fall of 2015 to the fall of 2024 but, adjusted for inflation, current expenditures per student rose by 9.4% and current expenditures per student in average daily attendance rose by 11.4%.
As enrollment fell, the number of instructional staff increased by 5.4%.
Our research found that
Some hope that shifting all public school spending to the state will cause legislators to adopt an income tax. But Granite Staters don't want an income tax. The more likely outcome is that lawmakers would cobble together funding from other sources and impose the sort of fiscal discipline on K-12 spending that local voters have chosen to avoid.
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