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National Association of Home Builders reports 348 United States metro areas saw GDP growth in 2023; Midland, Texas leads with 42.9% growth driven by oil sector

Jan 22, 2025 Press Release 20 min read

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January 22, 2025 (press release) –

Real GDP of metropolitan areas rose 2.7% in 2023, with the “real estate, rental and leasing” sector contributing 0.34 percentage points and construction contracting growth by 0.11 percentage points. While many metro areas followed the national growth trend, each region has its unique economic narrative. This article explores the economic trends driving these outcomes, focusing on the leading metro areas in real GDP growth, the construction sector’s standout performers over a five-year period, and the top MSAs benefiting from growth in real estate, rental, and leasing.

In 2023, real GDP increased in 348 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), decreased in 34 MSAs, and remained unchanged in 3 MSAs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data, which was recently released in December 2024, shows the range of growth spanned from 42.9% in Midland, TX, to a contraction of -9.3% in Elkhart-Goshen, IN. Three MSAs—Ithaca, NY, Joplin, MO, and Longview, WA—saw no change in real GDP.

The oil and gas sector played a significant role in driving growth in many MSAs. Midland, TX, recorded the highest growth due to a surge in oil production, with the “mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction” industry contributing a hefty 41.2 percentage points to the metro area’s GDP growth. Furthermore, among the top five highest growth areas, four had this industry as the leading contributor.

Top Five MSAs by Real GDP Growth and Leading Contributing Industry

Metro Area 2023 Real GDP Growth (%) Largest Contributing Industry Contribution (Percentage Points)
Midland, TX 42.9 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 41.2
Greeley, CO 18.5 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 15.5
El Centro, CA 16.4 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 14.4
Odessa, TX 11.6 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 7.1
Wheeling, WV-OH 10.7 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 9.9

Construction Sector Growth (2018–2023)

From 2018 to 2023, the construction industry exhibited a mixed performance, with 140 MSAs reporting positive compound annual growth rates (CAGR), 188 recording declines, and 5 showing no change. States like Idaho, Arizona, and Florida emerged as hotspots for construction growth during this period while states in the East North Central divisionPACIFIC AK Census Regions and Divisions of the United States 0 200 400 Miles WEST MIDWEST NORTHEAST WA ME ND MT NEW ENGLAND MN OR VT NH PACIFIC ID WEST WI SD NORTH NY MA MI CENTRAL CT EAST MIDDLE RI WY IA NORTH ATLANTIC CENTRAL PA NE NJ NV M OH OUNTAIN IN IL UT MD DE CA CO DC KS MO WV VA KY NC AZ TN SOUTH NM OK EAST ATLANTIC AR SOUTH SC CENTRAL WEST GA LEGEND SOUTH AL MS CENTRAL REGION DIVISION TX LA STATE 0 200 400 Miles FL PACIFIC SOUTH HI 0 100 200 Miles U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by the Geography Division U.S. Census Bureau Census Bureau Regions and Divisions with State FIPS Codes Region I: Northeast Division I: Division 2: New England Middle Atlantic Connecticut (09) Maine (23) New Jersey (34) Massachusetts (25) New York (36) New Hampshire (33) Pennsylvania (42) Rhode Island (44) Vermont (50) Region 2: Midwest* Division 3: Division 4: East North Central West North Central Indiana (18) Iowa (19) Nebr aska (31) Illinois (17) Kansas (20) Nor th Dakota (38) Michigan (26) Minnesota (27) South Dak ota (46) Ohio ( 39) Missouri (29) Wisconsin (55) Region 3: South Division 5: Division 6: Division 7: South Atlantic East South Central West South Central Delaware (10) Arkansas (05) Alabama (01) District of Columbia (11) Louisiana (22) Kentucky (21) Florida (12) Oklahoma (40) Mississippi (28) Georgia (13) Texas (48) Tennessee (47) Maryland (24) North Carolina (37) South Carolina (45) Virginia (51) West Virginia (54) Region 4: West Division 8: Division 9: Mountain Pacific Arizona ( 04) Montana (30) Alaska (02) Colorado (08) Utah (49) California (06) Idaho (16) Nevada (32) Hawaii (15) New Mexico (35) Wyoming (56) Oregon (41) Washington (53) *Prior to June 1984, the Midwest Region was designated as the North Central Region. appear to have slowdowns in this sector.

Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY, led with a 14.4% CAGR in construction. This boom was primarily driven by the development of the BlueOval SK Battery Park, slated to begin production in 2025. This joint venture between Ford Motor Company and SK On, a South Korean electric vehicle (EV) supplier, is expected to be the largest EV battery manufacturing facility globally.

According to a study by the Hardin County Chamber of Commerce (HCCC)Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Transformation Project ________ Measuring the Impact of the BlueOval SK Battery Park on the Elizabethtown Metro Area Luke B. Schmidt with Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. August 9, 2023 _________ Page | 2 Table of Contents • Transmittal Letter ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....5 • Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……7 • Methodology & Acknowledgements ………………………………………………………………………………………………9 • Executive Summary ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………13 • Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Research & Analysis ………………………………………………………………..….31 o Economic and Demographic Characteristics of the 10-County Elizabethtown Region ……..33 o Elizabethtown – Fort Knox Metropolitan Statistical Area Peer MSA Analysis …………….…….59 o BlueOval SK Battery Park Impact on Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA ………………………………75 • Boomtown Analysis ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..109 o Georgetown, Kentucky …………………………………………………………………………………………………..109 o Reno, Nevada …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………121 o Meridian, Idaho ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..135 o Round Rock, Texas …………………………………………………………………………………………………………146 • Key Stakeholder Engagement – Pre/Post-Project SWOT Analysis & Surveys/Interviews ………………159 o Pre/Post-Project Community Leader SWOT Analysis ……………………………………………………..159 o Key Community Leader Surveys & Interviews ………………………………………………………………..162 o Outer County Leadership Groups …………………………………………………………………………………..174 ▪ Meade County ………………………………………………………………………………………………….174 ▪ Grayson County ………………………………………………………………………………………………..176 ▪ Hart County ………………………………………………………………………………………………………178 ▪ Larue County …………………………………………………………………………………………………….180 • Overview – Competitive Community Economic Development Platforms ………………………………………183 o Bowling Green, Kentucky …………………………………………………………………………………………..……183 o Columbia, Tennessee ………………………………………………………………………………………………………184 o Decatur, Alabama ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………185 • Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Geographical Expansion ………………………………………………………………187 • Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkway Conversions to Interstate Status ………………………………………..193 • Project Recommendations ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..199 Page | 3 Page | 4 Luke B. Schmidt President 2800 Rivers Edge Road Louisville, Kentucky 40222 USA + 1.502.292.2898 (Voice) + 1.502.292.2899 (FAX) + 1.502.718.6342 (Mobile) lbschmidt@lbschmidt.com www.lbschmidt.com August 9, 2023 Dr. Juston Pate, Ph.D. Kenny Rambo President President Elizabethtown Community & Technical College Heartland Communications Consultants 600 College Street Road 55 Public Square Elizabethtown, Kentucky 42701 Elizabethtown, Kentucky 42701 Margy Poorman Rick Games President & Chief Executive Officer President Hardin County Chamber of Commerce Elizabethtown – Hardin County Industrial Foundation 111 West Dixie Avenue 233 Ring Road, Suite 150 Elizabethtown, Kentucky 42701 Elizabethtown, Kentucky 42701 Tom Carrico Vice President & Chief Operating Officer Baptist Health Hardin 913 N. Dixie Avenue Elizabethtown, Kentucky 42701 Dear Juston, Kenny, Margy, Rick, & Tom, On behalf of my project partner, Paul Coomes, we are pleased to provide each of you with your copy of the final report on the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Transformation Project, which accompanies this letter. We appreciate the opportunity to work with each of you and remain available for further consultation and questions. Sincerely, Luke B. Schmidt Luke B. Schmidt cc: Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Page | 5 Page | 6 Introduction The Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Transformation Project has been developed in response to the announcement in late 2021 and subsequent construction of the massive BlueOval SK Battery Park in Hardin County. The battery park, located on the Glendale megasite just south of Elizabethtown will have a profound impact on Elizabethtown, Hardin County and all of Kentucky. BlueOval SK Battery Park will be the largest electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing facility in the world and represents the largest single economic development project in Kentucky’s history. BlueOval SK (BOSK) is a joint venture between The Ford Motor Company and SK On, a South Korean battery manufacturing company. BOSK will produce electric vehicle (EV) batteries for new Ford electric vehicles. L.B. Schmidt & Associates, LLC, a Louisville-based international consulting firm, in partnership with Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus at the University of Louisville, was retained in 2022 by a consortium of clients to study the impact of the battery park on the metropolitan area. Project clients include: • Baptist Health Hardin • Elizabethtown – Hardin County Industrial Foundation • Elizabethtown Community & Technical College • Hardin County Chamber of Commerce • Heartland Communication Additional project clients/funders include: • Abound Credit Union • Elizabethtown Tourism & Convention Bureau • lightsource BP • PNC • South Central Bank • Swope Family of Dealerships • The Cecilian Bank • The Land Store, Inc./Tim Aulbach • WesBanco • West Point Bank • Windstream The findings of the study begin with the Executive Summary which follows. Page | 7 Page | 8 Methodology & Acknowledgements Methodology The Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Transformation Project was conducted by utilizing several types of research, including: • Online research • Key stakeholder interviews • Site visits to “boomtowns” • Analysis of key government geographical market economic data • Analysis of data provided by BlueOval SK The findings which follow in this report are based upon analysis of the “best” data provided by various sources which was available at the time that the research was conducted. Any unanticipated changes in BlueOval SK’s business plan as understood at the time this report was issued may alter the impact numbers presented in this report. Acknowledgements Numerous people provided valuable assistance to the authors as this report was compiled. The following members of the executive team from BlueOval SK provided invaluable support to the authors as part of the BOSK data analysis: • Jiem Cranney, Chief Financial Officer • Neva Burke, Human Resources Director • Niclas Persson, Internal Control Manager • Ursula Madden, External Affairs Manager • Eric Grubb, Director of New Footprint Construction (The Ford Motor Company) • Mike Fine, BlueOval SK Outside Counsel (Wyatt, Tarrant & Combs) The following individuals provided invaluable support to the authors as part of the series of outer county key leaders group meetings: • Annie Emond, Executive Director, Meade County Chamber of Commerce • April Spalding, Executive Director, Grayson County Chamber of Commerce • Ashley Herrington, CEO, Owensboro Health Twin Lakes Regional Medical Center • Blake Burrett, Larue County Judge/Executive • Bonnie Henderson, Mayor, City of Clarkson • Bryan Claycomb, Mayor, City of Brandenburg • David Pace, Chairman, Meade County – Brandenburg Economic Development • Doug Robinson, Superintendent, Grayson County Schools • Harold Miller, Mayor, City of Leitchfield • Heather Whelen, Heartland Communications • Ilsa Johnson, Director, Leitchfield Tourism • Jim Phelps, Mayor, City of Hodgenville • Kenny Rambo, Heartland Communications Page | 9 • Lori Woosley, Leitchfield City Clerk/Treasurer • Nick Sullivan, Director, Larue County Chamber of Commerce The following individuals provided invaluable support to the authors during site visits to “boomtowns:” Georgetown • Jack Conner, Executive Director, Scott County United and Georgetown/Scott County Chamber of Commerce • Joe Kane, Georgetown/Scott County Planning • John Nash, Captain, Georgetown Police Department • John Ward, Chief, Scott County Fire Department • Kim Menke, Regional Director/Government Affairs, Toyota Manufacturing North America • Lori Saunders, Executive Director, Georgetown/Scott County Tourism • Matt Summers, Georgetown/Scott County Planning Meridian • Ashley Squyres, Administrator, Meridian Development Corporation • Bruce Freckleton, Director, Meridian Community Development Department • Caleb Hood, Planning Division Manager, City of Meridian • Dave Winder, Director, Cushman & Wakefield, Boise • David Miles, Chief of Staff, City of Meridian • Matthew Stoll, Executive Director, Community Planning Association of Southwest Idaho • Robert Simison, Mayor, City of Meridian • Sean Evans, President/CEO, Meridian Chamber of Commerce • Trent Bernt, L & K Carpet One, Pocatello Round Rock • Brooks Bennett, Assistant City Manager, City of Round Rock • Joe Brehm, Director of Community Development, City of Round Rock • Jordan Robinson, President & CEO, Round Rock Chamber of Commerce • Ryan Therrell, Director of Business Development, Beck Group, Austin Reno • Mike Kazmierski, President, Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada In addition to the 140 + Hardin County community leaders who participated in the online survey, the following community leaders provided additional support to the project by participating in one-on-one interviews: • Adam King, Director, Hardin County Planning & Development Commission • Beth Avey, Vice President, Knox Regional Development Alliance • Brandon Fogle, Northern Region President, South Central Bank • Brett Barnes, Systems Manager, Metalsa • Carl Swope, President, Swope Family of Dealerships • Daniel London, Executive Director, Lincoln Trail Area Development District • Davette Swiney, President, Central Kentucky Community Foundation Page | 10 • Ed Poppe, City Administrator, City of Elizabethtown • Heidi Hartlage Patterson, Director of Administration, Hartlage Management Company • Janna Clark, Executive Director, Elizabethtown Tourism & Convention Bureau • Jeff Gregory, Mayor, City of Elizabethtown • Jeff Key, Vice President, U.S. Healthcare Systems at Vero Biotech • Jeff Noel, Lead Pastor, Grace Heartland Church • Jeremy Thompson, Chief, Elizabethtown Police Department • Jim Bradford, Deputy Garrison Commander, Fort Knox • Jim Fugitte, Strategy Consultant at Opportunity Expanded • Jim Iacocca, President, Knox Regional Development Alliance • Joe Fowler, President, United Way of Central Kentucky • Joe Humphrey, Partner, Chrome Unboxed • John Ward, Hardin County Sheriff • Josh Hubbard, President, West Point Bank • Juston Pate, President, Elizabethtown Community & Technical College • Keith Taul, Hardin County Judge/Executive • Kelli Bush, Superintendent, Elizabethtown Independent Schools • Ken Howard, City Attorney, City of Elizabethtown • Kenny Rambo, President, Heartland Communications Consultants • Margy Poorman, President, Hardin County Chamber of Commerce • Marilyn Ford, City President, Heartland Region, WesBanco • Michael Bowers, Chairman, Venminder • Ray Springsteen, President, Abound Credit Union • Rick Games, President, Elizabethtown/Hardin County Industrial Foundation • Teresa Morgan, Superintendent, Hardin County Schools • Tim Aulbach, Owner, The Land Store • Tom Carrico, Vice President & Chief Operating Officer, Baptist Health Hardin • Tom Wallace, Senior Vice President, PNC Bank Finally, the authors want to thank Bradley Bottoms, Chief District Engineer, District # 4 of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet for his assistance in providing additional insight into the issue of converting an existing parkway to an interstate highway. Disclaimer: The information presented is accurate as of the date of publication; however, like all data, going forward, it is subject to periodic changes in the business environment. BlueOval SK’s participation was for the purpose of providing information about its activities only. Any conclusions made, and the survey conducted, was done independent of BlueOval SK. Page | 11 Page | 12 Executive Summary BlueOval SK Battery Park will be the largest electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing facility in the world and represents the largest single economic development project in Kentucky’s history. BlueOval SK (BOSK) is a joint venture between The Ford Motor Company and SK On, a South Korean battery manufacturing company. BOSK will produce electric vehicle (EV) batteries for new Ford electric vehicles. The BOSK Battery Park is one of several EV battery plants which are currently under construction around the country. These facilities are being built in response to growing consumer demand for environmentally friendly vehicles. The two charts which follow, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, illustrate the expected growth in the U.S. EV market, along with growth in related battery manufacturing capacity to power these vehicles: Page | 13 When first announced by Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, the initial “impact” numbers for the BOSK Battery Park were astounding: 5,000 new jobs, an initial investment of $5.8 billion, and two four million+ square feet manufacturing facilities. From a sheer physical standpoint (square footage), BOSK’s battery park stands out globally in terms of its size: World’s Largest Manufacturing Facilities1 Total Facility Company Footprint Rank Name Location (Square Feet) Description 1 Volkswagen Wolfsburg, Germany 69,965,417 Auto Assembly 2 AVTOVAZ Tolyatti, Russia 64,583,462 Auto Assembly 3 Hyundai Ulsan, South Korea 54,357,747 Auto Assembly 4 Kia Hwaseong, South Korea 35,585,487 Auto Assembly 4 Kia Yancheng, China 35,585,487 Auto Assembly 5 Foxconn Longhua, China 32,292,731 Electronics 6 Kia West Point, GA 28,115,334 Auto Assembly 7 Kia Teplicka and Vahom, Slovakia 17,792,743 Auto Assembly 8 Kia Seo-gu, China 12,809,053 Auto Assembly 9 Tesla Shanghai, China 9,309,544 Auto Assembly 10 Blue Oval SK2 Hardin County, KY 8,400,000 EV Electric Batteries 11 Toyota Georgetown, KY 8,099,993 Auto Assembly 12 BlueOval City3 Stanton, TN 7,000,000 Auto Assembly/EV Batteries 13 Jaguar Lolihull, UK 5,661,816 Auto Assembly 14 Tesla Sparks, NV 5,489,594 EV Electric Batteries 15 Nissan Smyrna, TN 5,338,899 Auto Assembly 1 Source: R List (4/7/23) as measured by facility square footage 2 Source: Update provided during BlueOval SK Battery Park town hall held on 4/4/23 3 Source: Tennessee Town & City; current construction footprint is 7 million square feet, which may ultimately grow to 10 million square feet Page | 14 As a stand-alone battery plant investment, BOSK Battery Park will be the largest EV electric battery plant in the world in terms of investment, physical size, jobs created, and manufacturing capacity. Largest EV Battery Manufacturing Site Investments4 (Announced) Rank Company Location Investment (B) Jobs GW Hour Capacity 1 BlueOval SK Hardin County, KY $5.8 5,000 86 2 BlueOval City5 Stanton, TN 5.6 6,000 43 3 Hyundai Bryan County, GA 5.5 8,100 35 4 Rivian Ft. Worth, TX 5.0 7,500 50 5 Rivian Covington, GA 5.0 7,500 50 6 GM Orion, MI 4.0 2,350 N/A 7 Panasonic DeSoto, KS 4.0 4,000 30 8 GM/LG Energy Lansing, MI 2.6 1,700 50 9 SK Innovation Commerce, GA 2.6 3,000 31 10 Stellantis/Samsung Kokomo, IN 2.5 1,400 33 11 GM/LG Energy Spring Hill, TN 2.3 1,300 50 12 Envision AESC Bowling Green, KY 2.0 2,000 30 13 Ford Multiple Sites (MI) 2.0 3,200 N/A 14 VinFast Chatham County, NC 2.0 7,500 N/A 15 LG Energy Holland, MI 1.7 1,200 N/A 16 LG Energy Queen Creek, AZ 1.4 TBA 11 17 Toyota Liberty, NC 3.8 2,100 N/A 18 Tesla Austin, TX 1.1 5,000 N/A Finally, as shown in the map which follows, Elizabethtown and Hardin County are centrally located when it comes to new EV battery facilities, which should generate new supply chain manufacturing site selection interest: 4 Ranked by financial investment; sites shaded in green also include a new auto assembly facility; total investment and new jobs created shown 5 BlueOval City is a multi-purpose manufacturing site; the BOSK battery manufacturing site employment will total 2,500 workers out of the total Page | 15 The impact of the BOSK facility on the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA will be enormous. Using data provided by BOSK, the following key impact metrics have been generated: Construction Phase6 • Local: 720 workers • Travelers: 2,880 workers • Peak: 10/23: 3,500 workers Housing Requirements: • Traveling workers: 2,800 units • Management personnel: 300 units Construction Payroll: $1.6 billion Local materials/services: $75 million Source: Business First of Louisville Equipment Installation Phase7 • 1,000 engineers on site Beginning in Q4 of 2023, up to 1,000 engineers from South Korea8 will be on site to begin the installation of equipment in BOSK Kentucky Plant # 1 and extending through the end of Q4 of 2025 in BOSK Kentucky Plant # 2. The number of engineers on site may range from 500 to 1,000 from time to time as some engineers may shuttle between BOSK battery plants in Kentucky and Tennessee. Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution The payroll of the engineers is unknown and is NOT included in the construction payroll figure of $1.6 billion listed above. Confirmed FTE Workforce9 When the BOSK plant was first announced in 2021, the expected Full Time Equivalent (FTE) workforce of the complex was announced as 5,000 workers, making this the largest new announced economic development in Kentucky’s history. 6 Source: BlueOval SK 7 Source: BlueOval SK 8 Technicians are temporary workers who will be here on two-year visas installing, calibrating and training personnel on running equipment 9 Source: BlueOval SK Page | 16 Confirmed FTE Workforce - BlueOval SK Battery Park 6000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5000 4000 3000 2,500 2000 1000 1000 1000 1000 4.5 0 EOY 2023 EOY 2024 EOY 2025 EOY 2026 EOY 2027 Technicians Confirmed FTE Workforce Source: BlueOval SK Additional BlueOval SK FTE Workforce Information – Expected Workforce10 EOY 25 confirmed workforce: 5,000 FTE • EOY 23 workforce: 1,000 FTE • EOY 24 workforce: 2,500 FTE • EOY 25 workforce: 5,000 FTE • EOY 26 workforce: 5,000 FTE • EOY 27 workforce: 5,000 FTE BOSK plans to run two 12-hour shifts (patterns to be determined) In terms of employment, by 2026, BOSK will be one of the largest manufacturing sites in Kentucky based on current employment numbers and the confirmed BOSK employment number as shown in the chart which follows. • Hardin County will be home to two of the 10 largest manufacturers in Kentucky • All but one of the Top-10 manufacturers are located along the I-65 Corridor 10 Source: BlueOval SK Page | 17 Company Number of Employees Location Toyota Motor Manufacturing, Kentucky, Inc. 8,200 Georgetown Ford Motor Company, Kentucky Truck 8,000 Louisville Haier, US Appliance Solutions, Inc. 6,000 Louisville BlueOval SK 5,000 Hardin County Louisville Graphite, Inc. 5,000 Louisville Ford Motor company, Louisville Assembly 4,000 Louisville Metalsa Structural Products 2,000 Elizabethtown Rev-A-Shelf, LLC 2,000 Louisville Bowling Green Metalforming, LLC 1,800 Bowling Green Dart Container Corporation of Kentucky 1,650 Horse Cave Source: IndustrySelect.com 10/5/22 Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Impact Projections – Compiled by Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Key Assumptions used in Modeling Projections: 1. Battery plant construction period: 2022 through 2024; investment of $5.8 billion with average of 4,500 construction jobs over three years with average annual pay of $50,000 2. Plant will begin battery production by EOY 2024 with 2,500 full time employees; EOY 2025 with 5,000 full time employees with average annual pay of $53,000; with fringe benefits: $73,000 3. Battery plant will attract several new supplier/support businesses to Hardin County Custom regional input-output models were built for Hardin County, the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA, and the 10-county Elizabethtown region which provides significant information over 500 industries on such things as local employment, pay, etc. This is the standard method used by regional economists to analyze potential multiplier effects of new developments. In addition, modeling based on Tesla’s “real-world” experience to date in Reno was also factored in. Additionally, projected average annual pay figure was generated by Dr. Coomes based on data provided by BOSK. Key Findings to Date: • Each billion dollars of construction expenditures will support around 11,600 total job years in the region • Each billion dollars of equipment expenditures will support around 823 total job years in the region • The 5,000 jobs expected to operate the plant will support 8,106 total jobs in the region; this represents an employment multiplier of 1.603 o Incremental supply chain development: 1,397 jobs o Incremental household spending development: 1,619 jobs Page | 18 Payroll Information • By EOY 2026, expected direct plant payroll: $265 million • By EOY 2026, expected direct plant payroll (with fringe benefits): $363 million • Cumulative 2026 – 2035 expected direct plant payroll impact: $2.65 billion • Cumulative 2026 – 2035 expected direct plant payroll impact (with FB): $3.63 billion Note: Once BOSK reaches full employment, workers will be subject to a 1% Hardin County Occupational Tax. Tax proceeds collected over the first 10 years will be rebated to BOSK. Initial Occupational Tax proceeds, based upon the $265 million annual payroll will total $2.65 million. First 10 years, assuming no wage increase, proceeds will total $26.5 million. Source: Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. As the data was analyzed, the following issues were considered and clarified with BOSK when possible: • Will BOSK suppliers move to Hardin County? • What will remaining acreage on BOSK site be used for? • Will local governments work to accommodate growth? • Will Hardin County absorb the bulk of new workers, residents? • How many jobs will be filled by workers moving to the area? • Will the pay scale at BOSK draw workers from existing manufacturers? • What will be needed in terms of new housing, schools, etc.? Elizabethtown – Hardin County Population Projections 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 134,242 80,000 105,503 111,862 60,000 94,704 40,000 54,272 20,000 0 22,542 28,531 31,892 2000 2010 2022 Estimated 2030 Projected Population Population Hardin County Population Elizabethtown Population Source: Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Page | 19 Projected Growth/Hardin County: 22,380 people – Age Breakout: • Under age 5 1,424 • Ages 5 – 14 3,128 • Ages 15 – 24 2,924 • Ages 25 – 34 2,956 • All Others 11,949 Source: Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Using Scott County’s growth as a guide, BOSK will catalyze growth in Hardin County for… • 8,811 new housing units • 3,901 new K-12 students • 75 new staffed hospital beds • 389 new hospital jobs • 380 new ambulatory care jobs Source: Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Complete backup data for each of the preceding projections can be found in the section which follows, and which is entitled: Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Research & Analysis, in the subsection entitled: BlueOval SK Battery Park Impact on Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA. Additional Issues Raised with BlueOval SK In addition to data related to employment, BOSK executives were asked to provide input on a variety of issues related to the incoming plant’s needs and community infrastructure needs/issues. Following are the responses: Issue Response Minimum education • High school/GED or Bachelors/master’s degree depending upon the attainment levels required position for BOSK positions Anticipated age breakdown • Unknown at this time as workforce has not yet been hired of workers Supplier Chain Issues • “We expect that companies and people from all parts of the globe will want to do business with BOSK. They will relocate to the region. We are not able to answer what kinds of workers will fill the positions of our suppliers” • Names of companies, site requirements, numbers of employees, etc. are unknown at this time Page | 20 Issue Response Community infrastructure • More temporary and long-term housing options that are affordable needs that are currently for all levels of BOSK’s workforce unavailable in Elizabethtown • “We encourage developers to create high-quality housing at various levels of affordability” • Childcare centers and mass transportation would be an enhancement for employees • BlueOval SK does not intend to provide on-site childcare • “It goes without saying that Elizabethtown will need more housing, more schools, more emergency services, more healthcare services, more healthcare facilities, more hotel capacity and grocery stores” Issue Response Community quality of life • “We recognize the wonderful park ecosystem in Elizabethtown but needs that are currently expect more public spaces will be needed” unavailable in Elizabethtown • “Large YMCA would be good for fitness and may also be a great place for childcare services” • “Our workers will be interested in a variety of restaurants and leisure opportunities (e.g., mall, movie theater, etc.)” • It would be helpful to have a meeting space for large gatherings of people (e.g., convention center)” Issue Response Korean cultural issues for • Develop community task force to develop better understanding of newcomers – how can the the Korean community/culture community assist BlueOval SK? • Provide services/support unique to the Korean culture • Develop long-term platform to foster relationships, including possible Korean sister city • BOSK is developing tools to help educate the Korean population around opportunities for families • BOSK has hired a transition coordinator to assist with basic/immediate needs (e.g., schools, drivers’ licenses, etc.) • BOSK will need for the community to “lean” into helping the new talent feel welcome Page | 21 Issue Response Transportation • Air cargo needs at Elizabethtown Regional Airport (EKX) are unknown at this time • Would like to see flights to/from Memphis to Louisville/Elizabethtown (“expect steady flow of 8 – 15 people”) • Would like to see regional transit system to bring workers in from outlying counties • Would also like to see regional transit system to bring workers from Louisville and Bowling Green Medical Issues • BOSK intends to hire an onsite medical services provider which will work with planned on-site clinics • BOSK intends to contract with an “Occupational Health Services” provider in the area Future BOSK Site Expansion • “BOSK’s primary focus is on delivering its initial plan. Plans for the Plans future will be determined later.” Highlights from other sections of the Study include: Economic and Demographic Characteristics of the 10-County Elizabethtown Region • The 10-county region has 386,000 residents • Hardin County has the youngest population among the ten counties • Taylor and Hardin counties have the most educated residents • The region supports 177,000 jobs, with manufacturing being a significant source of income • Average annual manufacturing pay in the region: $74,000 (Hardin County: $80,000) • Total personal income in the 10-county region: $17.3 billion (2020); $44,772 per-capita Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Area Peer MSA Analysis • Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA has a population of 154,000 • Peer MSA qualifications: (1) population between 100,000 – 300,000; (2) along interstate highway; (3) not a state capitol; (4) not a college town; (5) military installation presence; (6) at least 5,000 manufacturing jobs; or (7) another compelling reason for inclusion Page | 22 Peer Metropolitan Statistical Areas State Military's Government's MSA Manufacturing Share of Total Share of Total Code Population Jobs Jobs Jobs 14020 Bloomington, IN 169,052 9,817 0.5% ND 14540 Bowling Green, KY 180,751 12,593 0.5% 4.6% 17300 Clarksville, TN-KY 314,364 12,481 18.5% 2.3% 19460 Decatur, AL 152,740 13,688 0.8% 1.2% 21060 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 154,356 7,530 7.4% 1.9% 24140 Goldsboro, NC 123,967 5,415 8.5% 5.7% 25620 Hattiesburg, MS 169,554 6,400 1.4% 4.6% 30020 Lawton, OK 126,775 3,621 19.3% 2.4% 36220 Odessa, TX 167,701 5,166 0.3% 1.7% 44940 Sumter, SC 139,775 7,113 9.9% 2.7% 47580 Warner Robins, GA 188,060 8,853 4.1% 2.2% 48660 Wichita Falls, TX 152,485 5,183 7.2% 3.8% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, estimates for 2020. Manufacturing jobs in Warner Robins not disclosed for 2020; 2017 estimate used. State government employment in Bloomington is not disclosed due to Indiana University dominating the total. Page | 23 Page | 24 Boomtown Analysis Four cities across the country that have experienced massive growth due mostly to one significant economic development event were analyzed to find out how the communities managed the growth and what lessons which were learned might translate to Elizabethtown and Hardin County. Boomtowns which were analyzed included: • Georgetown, KY (Toyota auto assembly plant) • Meridian, ID (Micron high-tech facility investments/California migration) • Reno, NV (Tesla EV battery manufacturing plant) • Round Rock, TX (Dell Computer manufacturing/headquarters) While there is a wealth of information on each city in this section (including jurisdictional comparisons with Elizabethtown and Hardin County), some of the key lessons learned in each community included: • Concern about future workforce development – where will the workers come from? • Toyota agreed to be annexed by City to support future growth • Messaging (about ongoing growth) needed to be better; need good communications between city leaders and citizens Georgetown – Toyota Auto Assembly Plant • Tesla exceeded what was projected by Nevada • Tesla facilitated the “re-branding” of Reno; attraction of advanced manufacturing is easier • Workforce development remains a challenge; worker recruitment now extends to Sacramento • Transportation “hot spots” develop quickly Reno – Tesla EV Battery Factory • City has minimal height requirements for new buildings; comprehensive plan drives growth • City/residents need realistic vision and understanding of what is coming • Invest in infrastructure (such as parks, libraries) early • Commuter rail needed to connect Valley cities Meridian – New Lifestyle Center Page | 25 • City’s impact fee places infrastructure expansion costs on developers/customers • City’s economic development efforts led by chamber of commerce • City’s chamber’s five-year Momentum strategy yields strong results Round Rock – The District (Under Development) Key Stakeholder Engagement – Pre/Post-Project SWOT Analysis & Surveys/Interviews The Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Impact Study also included extensive key stakeholder engagement. Over 140 community leaders received online surveys to gauge community opinion on upcoming growth and the future. Ninety-one community leaders responded (65% response rate – very high for a survey of this type). Additionally, thirty-four community leaders participated in confidential, one-on-one in-depth interviews with Luke Schmidt. Summaries of both survey processes can be found later in this Study. Pre- and post-project SWOT analysis were also conducted. The findings of each SWOT analysis can be found on the following two pages. Overview – Competitive Community Economic Development Platforms Going forward, the author believes that the following three cities present the most significant competition for future economic development along the I-65 Corridor: • Bowling Green, Kentucky • Columbia, Tennessee • Decatur, Alabama The economic development agencies in each of these cities has been combined with the local chamber of commerce and/or other agencies to maximize efficiencies. Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Geographical Expansion Beginning in 2028, local officials should begin to monitor U.S. OMB’s review of potential MSA boundary expansion to consider expected new commuting patterns related to BOSK which could expand the current MSA boundary. Additionally, local officials need to begin thinking how to expand Elizabethtown’s urban core population to at least 100,000 people to assure the continuation of the MSA designation, should existing OMB rules change, requiring a minimum 100,000 urban core population requirement. Page | 26 Pre-Project SWOT Elizabethtown/Hardin County Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats August 16, 2022 Post-Online Community Leader Survey SWOT Analysis Elizabethtown/Hardin County Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats April 1, 2023 Strengths Weaknesses •Location, regional medical center, educational opportunities •Lack of sewer in outlying areas •Balanced economy •Unprepared for labor, housing, and infrastructure needs for •Good people/good leadership what's coming •City is poised to lead growth for BOSK with southern •Workforce availability to fill thousands of new jobs annexation; police and fire can handle annexation •Not going big •Lack of unified government Opportunities Threats •Develop high tech research center with ECTC and battery •Current state of volunteer fire departments/EMS industry •Lack of new industrial land to recruit battery supply chain •BOSK will catalyze growth of new retail and restaurants •Lack of vision from community leaders •Recruit EV battery plant supply chain •Residents/community leaders who are resistant to change •Annex south and expand services to accomodate growth •Residential growth that does not align with tax structure to •Expand educational opportunities, medical facilities for fund infrastructure expansion premium job growth •BOSK will threaten existing industry workforce •Transform community into advanced manufacturing •Other communities becoming more progressive and powerhouse gaining new opportunities ahead of Elizabethtown Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkway Conversions to Interstate Status Every parkway built in Kentucky has been or is being converted into an interstate highway. The remaining portion of the Western Kentucky Parkway that has not yet been designated I-569 (from I-165 in Ohio County to Elizabethtown) should be extended so that the entire parkway has been converted. Steps should also be taken to convert the Bluegrass Parkway to I-565. Project Recommendations Finally, the author has taken this opportunity, following extensive community and regional research, to develop several recommendations for consideration by community leaders. The project recommendations are grouped into the following categories: • Community Branding/Promotion • Community Growth Management • MSA Future Planning • Quality of Life • Transportation • Community Leadership/Future Regional Planning & Project Facilitation The full Study now follows. Page | 30 Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Research & Analysis Introduction To fully understand the impact of the BlueOval SK Battery Park on the Elizabethtown Metro Area, significant research and analysis was conducted by Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. This process began by establishing a baseline on just where the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) stands today in terms of economic performance – prior to the opening of the BOSK Battery Park – in terms of size, economic output, etc. Once the baseline was established, the authors also wanted to find out how the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA compares with peer MSAs. Is the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA out-performing or lagging peer MSAs around the country. The authors established a list of peer MSAs taking account of the following key demographic factors (among others): • Advanced manufacturing center • Adjacent to a large military base • Lack of a four-year university (in most cases) • Adjacent to an interstate highway The list of peer MSAs includes: • Bloomington, IN • Bowling Green, KY • Clarksville, TN • Decatur, AL • Goldsboro, NC • Hattiesburg, MS • Lawton, OK • Odessa, TX • Sumter, SC • Warner Robbins, GA • Wichita Falls, TX Finally, the authors examined data provided by BlueOval SK specific to the new battery park. From that, Dr. Coomes generated specific impact numbers for the MSA based on the plant’s expected size, investment, and employment footprint. Project research and analysis now follows: Page | 31 Page | 32 Economic and Demographic Characteristics of the 10-County Elizabethtown Region By Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Elizabethtown lies at the center of a 10-county region that stretches north to the Ohio River, south to the Green River and cave country, east to Bardstown, and west to Leitchfield. Interstate 65 cuts through the middle, connecting industries in the Midwest and Great Lakes to the South. The Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways provide interstate-like transportation corridors to the east and west of Elizabethtown. The region, of course, includes Fort Knox. Indeed, the metropolitan area is named Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY MSA, and includes Hardin, Larue and Meade counties. The ten counties are shown on the map, along with county seats, major roads, and water features11. The region includes several major reservoirs and resort parks, including Rough River, Nolin Lake, and Green River Lake. 11 Christopher Butz created the map. Page | 33 Economic and Demographic Overview In this section, we review the latest data on economic and demographic conditions in the greater Elizabethtown region, with special attention to county-level measures. Among the most important and interesting findings are: 1. The 10-county region has 386,000 residents, up from 231,000 five decades ago. Hardin County accounts for 29 percent of the regional total, followed by Bullitt County (21 percent) and Nelson County (12 percent). Bullitt has been the fastest growing county in the region. The three-county Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA accounts for two-thirds of residents in the region. 2. Hardin County has the ‘youngest’ population among the ten counties in the region, with a median age of 37 years, and Green County has the ‘oldest’ population, with a median age of 44 years. 3. Bullitt, Nelson and Hardin counties have the fewest share of residents reporting a disability. However, over one in five residents of Green, Taylor, Hart and Breckinridge counties report a disability. 4. Taylor and Hardin counties have the most educated residents, with the highest rates of college attainment and the highest rate of adults with a graduate or professional degree. The least educated residents are in Hart and Green counties, where over 20 percent of adults did not finish high school, and less than 12 percent have a college degree. 5. Bullitt and Nelson counties have the highest employment rates, with over 60 percent of adults working, followed by Hardin and Meade. At the low end are Green and Breckinridge counties, with employment rates of 47 percent. 6. The average number of persons per household in the region is 2.62, which is between the state average of 2.55 and the national average of 2.67. Bullitt and Grayson counties have the largest household size, at 2.70 persons. LaRue County has the smallest household size, at 2.47. 7. Meade County has the highest percentage (88%) of households with a broadband internet subscription, followed by Bullitt and Nelson. Broadband access is lowest in Grayson, LaRue and Hart counties. 8. The region supports about 177,000 jobs, up from 106,000 jobs five decades ago. Military employment in the region is down to about 6,000, compared to 41,000 in 1970. 9. Manufacturing is a very significant source of income in the region, with over 21,000 jobs. Hardin County has the most manufacturing jobs, accounting for almost one-third of the regional total. Together with Nelson, Bullitt and Hart, these four counties account for 80 percent of the regional total. 10. Manufacturing jobs in the region have an average annual pay of $74,000, not including fringe benefits. Meade County easily tops the list, with average annual earnings of $117,000. Hardin County ranks second, with average pay of $80,000. 11. The biggest employment story in the region is the explosion of distribution and warehousing jobs in Bullitt County. Employment there grew five-fold in just the last thirteen years, from 1,500 to 8,300 jobs. Page | 34 12. The total personal income of residents in the region in 2020 was $17.3 billion, or $44,772 per person. This compares to per capita income in Kentucky overall of $47,339, and $59,510 in the United States. 13. The personal income data provides insights into regional commuting patterns since worker earnings by county of work have to be adjusted to a county of residence basis. By far the largest adjustment is for Bullitt County, where so many residents work in Jefferson County. Bullitt County residents bring in over $1 billion in earnings by working in other counties than do nonresidents working in Bullitt. Meade and LaRue counties provide thousands of workers to Hardin County, and thus also bring large paychecks home. Nelson County residents commute to Jefferson County and many other surrounding counties. Hardin County has the largest negative residence adjustment, reflecting its role as a central place of work for the region’s population – more nonresidents take their paychecks out than Hardin residents working outside the county bring paychecks in. Taylor County (Campbellsville) is the only other county with a negative residence adjustment. 14. Transfer payments, such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, are a large source of personal income for the region, as they are for the state of Kentucky. In 2020, transfer payments accounted for 30 percent of the personal income overall in the region. There is a wide range of dependence on these across the counties, however. Transfers account for 43 percent of personal income in Green County, and 40 percent in Taylor County. The lowest rates are in Bullitt (25 percent), Nelson (27 percent) and Meade (27 percent). 15. Current commuting patterns only support the inclusion of LaRue and Meade counties in the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA. They each have over 35 percent of their working residents working in Hardin County, and the federal threshold is 25 percent. The next highest county in the region is Grayson, where 13.4 percent of all working residents of Grayson work in Hardin. Using the historical data, it would take another 1,200 commuters from Grayson to Hardin County to meet the 25 percent criteria Population growth Over the past five decades, the population of the region has grown from 231,000 to 386,000. Hardin County remains the most populous county, though booming Bullitt County may soon equal it. All ten counties posted population growth over the period; however, Green County’s population today is only slightly greater than it was in 1970. Page | 35 Five Decades of Population Growth, Ten Counties in Elizabethtown Region 450,000 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis 400,000 Taylor 350,000 Nelson 300,000 Meade LaRue Hart 250,000 200,000 Hardin 150,000 Green Grayson 100,000 Bullitt 50,000 Breckenridge 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 The three-county Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA now has a population of 154,000 and has added 47,000 residents since 1970. In percentage terms, the 10-county region’s population grew by 67 percent, and the MSA population grew by 43 percent. These growth rates are higher than for the state of Kentucky overall, but lower than for the United States. One can see in the table that Bullitt is by far the fastest growing county in the region, with its population tripling over the last five decades. In terms of growth rates, Bullitt is followed by Nelson, Grayson, and Meade counties. Page | 36 Five Decades of Population Growth, Elizabethtown Region 1970 2020 growth rate Breckinridge 14,826 20,537 5,711 38.5% Bullitt 26,462 82,182 55,720 210.6% Grayson 16,590 26,480 9,890 59.6% Green 10,356 10,995 639 6.2% Hardin 78,328 111,309 32,981 42.1% Hart 14,099 19,013 4,914 34.9% Larue 10,714 14,431 3,717 34.7% Meade 18,610 28,616 10,006 53.8% Nelson 23,473 46,450 22,977 97.9% Taylor 17,264 25,707 8,443 48.9% 10-County Region 230,722 385,720 154,998 67.2% Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA 107,652 154,356 46,704 43.4% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA is composed of Hardin, Larue and Meade counties. For comparison, the population of Kentucky grew by 38.6%, and the United States by 61.7%, over the same period. Page | 37 Characteristics of the Population We now turn to the latest Census Bureau data on the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the ten counties in the region. The Bureau’s American Community Survey is conducted each year. Since it is a sample of the population, the accuracy of the estimates is improved by averaging several years of data. Here we use the five-year averages for 2016 to 2020. Share of Civilian Non-institutional Population, Aged Share of Share of 18 to 64, Population, Population Civilian Reporting a Population Median Age Aged 65+ Foreigh Born Veterans Disability Breckinridge 20,283 42.4 19.5% 0.6% 1,564 20.1% Bullitt 80,921 40.8 15.8% 1.6% 5,601 13.0% Grayson 26,313 40.8 17.6% 1.2% 1,319 16.0% Green 11,000 43.8 20.0% 1.1% 713 27.9% Hardin 109,627 37.0 14.1% 4.0% 13,171 15.7% Hart 18,833 40.5 16.8% 0.9% 1,181 21.4% Larue 14,269 41.5 17.4% 3.1% 852 18.7% Meade 28,379 38.9 14.2% 1.3% 3,212 17.4% Nelson 45,915 39.9 15.9% 1.2% 3,172 15.1% Taylor 25,572 37.5 17.5% 1.6% 1,358 20.9% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020, 5-year average. Hardin County has the ‘youngest’ population among the ten counties in the region, with a median age of 37 years, and Green County has the ‘oldest’ population. For comparison, the median age of all Kentucky residents is 39.0, and for the US population it is 38.6. Hardin County also has the most foreign-born residents, as well as the most veterans. This part of the United States tends to have very few foreign-born residents. Nationally, the share of the population that is foreign-born is 13.5 percent, while in Kentucky overall it is only 4.0 percent – the same as for Hardin County. Immigrants are primarily drawn to a few large gateway cities, such as New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco and Washington DC. Towns hosting major universities, with many graduate programs, also tend to have a high percentage of foreign-born residents. Bullitt, Nelson and Hardin counties have the fewest share of residents reporting a disability12. Over one in five residents of Green, Taylor, Hart and Breckinridge counties report having a disability. Kentucky has historically had a high rate of people reporting a disability, and this latest ACS data set shows the rate at 10.3 percent, compared to 16.0 percent nationally. One can see that seven of the ten regional counties have a disability rate above the state average, and all are above the national average. 12 The Census Bureau definition of disability is found on page 62 of https://www2.census.gov/programs- surveys/acs/tech_docs/subject_definitions/2020_ACSSubjectDefinitions.pdf “The ACS identifies serious difficulty with four basic areas of functioning – hearing, vision, cognition, and ambulation. These functional limitations are supplemented by questions about difficulty bathing and dressing, and difficulty performing errands such as shopping.” An adult with a difficulty in any of these areas is considered to have a disability. Page | 38 Median Age of Population 46 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020 5-year average 43.8 44 42.4 42 41.5 40.8 40.8 40.5 39.9 40 38.9 38 37.5 37.0 36 34 32 Education There is a wide distribution among the counties in terms of formal education. Taylor and Hardin counties have the most educated residents, with the highest rates of college attainment and the highest rate of adults with a graduate or professional degree. For Taylor County, 23.5 percent of adults have a bachelor’s degree or higher. In Hardin County, the rate is 22.0 percent. Aggregating across the ten counties, we calculate that the college attainment rate for the region is 17.9 percent. For comparison, the college attainment rate for all of Kentucky is 25.0 percent and is 32.9 percent for the United States as a whole. The least educated residents are in Hart and Page | 39 Green counties, where over 20 percent of adults did not finish high school, and less than 12 percent have a college degree. High school Population 9th to 12th graduate Some Graduate or High school Bachelor's 25 years and Less than 9th grade, no (includes college, no Associate's Bachelor's professional graduate or degree or older grade diploma equivalency) degree degree degree degree higher higher Breckinridge 14,083 3.7% 9.9% 42.3% 21.9% 7.7% 8.2% 6.2% 86.3% 14.4% Bullitt 56,737 3.3% 7.9% 41.5% 21.8% 9.8% 10.4% 5.3% 88.8% 15.7% Grayson 17,921 7.2% 10.2% 44.7% 20.0% 7.1% 6.2% 4.6% 82.7% 10.9% Green 7,978 13.2% 10.4% 41.0% 17.7% 6.2% 5.8% 5.8% 76.4% 11.6% Hardin 72,705 2.6% 5.7% 29.8% 27.2% 12.6% 12.8% 9.3% 91.7% 22.0% Hart 12,708 10.5% 12.4% 42.0% 17.1% 6.5% 6.6% 4.8% 77.1% 11.4% Larue 10,092 5.6% 10.7% 36.2% 21.7% 10.4% 6.5% 8.8% 83.7% 15.3% Meade 19,549 3.1% 7.0% 36.0% 24.4% 11.3% 10.7% 7.7% 90.0% 18.4% Nelson 31,363 2.1% 5.8% 35.9% 24.6% 12.3% 11.7% 7.6% 92.1% 19.3% Taylor 16,785 4.2% 8.2% 37.3% 19.8% 7.0% 14.2% 9.2% 87.7% 23.5% 10-County Region 259,921 4.1% 7.6% 36.9% 23.2% 10.3% 10.6% 7.2% 88.3% 17.9% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020, 5-year average. Percentage of Adults with Bachelor's Degree or Higher 25% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community 23.5% Survey, 2016-2020 5-year average 22.0% 20% 19.3% 18.4% 15.7% 15.3% 15% 14.4% 11.6% 11.4% 10.9% 10% 5% 0% Taylor Hardin Nelson Meade Bullitt Larue Breckinridge Green Hart Grayson Page | 40 Labor force Economic statisticians survey the adult population and distinguish their status into four areas: civilian employed, armed forces, civilians seeking work (unemployed), and those not in the labor force. The civilian labor force is defined as those employed and those unemployed, and the unemployment rate is simply the percentage of that labor force seeking work. A high unemployment rate may truly reflect an excess supply of labor relative to demand, but sometimes a falling unemployment rate reflects more ‘discouraged workers,’ that is, people giving up finding a job and leaving the labor force so defined. Those ‘not in the labor force’ may be retired, have a disability, be raising children, taking care of an ill persons, be a discouraged worker, or simply not interested in a job. Civilian Population Civilian Armed Civilian Not in the Employment Unemployment Aged 16+ Employed Forces Unemployed Labor Force Rate Rate Breckinridge 16,189 7,630 0 647 7,912 47.1% 7.8% Bullitt 65,697 40,657 65 2,152 22,823 62.0% 5.0% Grayson 20,778 10,669 6 389 9,714 51.4% 3.5% Green 8,947 4,184 0 239 4,524 46.8% 5.4% Hardin 85,904 47,832 3,123 3,420 31,529 59.3% 6.7% Hart 14,706 7,607 0 319 6,780 51.7% 4.0% Larue 11,473 6,411 5 157 4,900 55.9% 2.4% Meade 22,797 12,676 817 694 8,610 59.2% 5.2% Nelson 36,135 22,054 50 759 13,272 61.2% 3.3% Taylor 20,448 11,323 97 580 8,448 55.8% 4.9% 10-County Region 303,074 171,043 4,163 9,356 118,512 57.8% 5.2% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020, 5-year average. A useful labor market indicator is the ‘employment rate,’ defined as the percentage of the adult population that is employed or in the armed forces. This provides an indication of a region’s intensity of work. Bullitt and Nelson counties top the list, with employment rates above 60 percent, followed by Hardin and Meade. At the low end are Green and Breckinridge counties, with employment rates of 47 percent. The average for the region is 57.8 percent, which is slightly above the state average of 56.3 percent. However, only two counties have an employment rate above the national average of 60 percent. It is interesting that Hardin County has the second highest unemployment rate, at 6.7 percent, even though it has one of the highest employment rates. This reflects two factors. Recall that Hardin has the youngest population in the region; and therefore, has a greater share of residents in their prime working years. Second, Hardin’s strong manufacturing base and recent growth presents more opportunities for work, and thus more people are seeking work. The overall unemployment rate for the 10-county region is 5.2 percent, which is the same as that for the state of Kentucky and the United States, both at 5.4 percent. The ACS also provides estimates of health insurance coverage. Here we display the results for employed civilians in prime working ages. Keep in mind the data refer to workers based on where they live, not necessarily where they work. Bullitt County workers have the highest rate of private insurance and the smallest rate without health insurance. Taylor and Nelson counties rank 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in terms of having private health insurance. Page | 41 Green, Hart, and Meade counties have the highest percentage of workers with public health insurance. And Hart and Green counties have the highest share of workers that are uninsured. Employed Civilians, 19 With private No health to 64 years health With public insurance old insurance coverage coverage Breckinridge 7,044 82.0% 15.4% 6.6% Bullitt 37,535 88.6% 11.0% 3.9% Grayson 10,007 75.7% 21.1% 7.9% Green 3,827 70.5% 22.1% 10.3% Hardin 43,699 83.2% 19.9% 5.7% Hart 6,910 71.6% 21.1% 11.7% Larue 5,982 78.9% 17.1% 6.5% Meade 11,788 83.1% 20.0% 4.3% Nelson 20,281 86.4% 12.5% 5.5% Taylor 9,575 86.9% 13.3% 4.2% 10-County Region 156,648 83.6% 16.3% 5.6% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020, 5-year average. For comparison, in Kentucky overall 81.3% of such workers have private insurance, 14.9% have public coverage, and 7.2 percent are uninsured. The private insurance rate is the same as that nationally, but Kentucky has a much higher share of workers on Medicaid (public coverage) than does the US (10.5%). Page | 42 Household Characteristics The Census Bureau defines as household as an occupied housing unit. The household might contain a single adult, a married couple with children, a single parent with children, related or unrelated roommates, or anything in between. The average number of persons per household in the region is 2.59, which is between the state average of 2.48 and the national average of 2.60. Bullitt (2.69) and Grayson (2.67) counties have the largest household size. LaRue County has the smallest household size, at 2.42. Share of Owner- Home Homeowner Median Value, Occupied Households Number of Persons per Ownership vacancy rate Rental vacancy Owner- Units with Households Household* Rate % rate % Occupied Unit without a Median Rent Broadband Breckinridge 7,731 2.58 81.8% 2.1 5.4 $104,500 52.9% $296 74.8% Bullitt 29,940 2.69 81.4% 1.4 7.0 $171,300 34.9% $849 84.2% Grayson 9,753 2.67 73.6% 3.1 7.2 $118,100 55.7% $583 70.6% Green 4,440 2.45 72.2% 2.2 0.9 $80,600 51.9% $515 74.3% Hardin 42,059 2.54 61.0% 1.4 8.1 $157,700 37.2% $811 80.1% Hart 7,256 2.56 74.1% 0.2 6.2 $93,000 52.0% $559 73.2% Larue 5,779 2.42 76.2% 2.3 0.3 $125,100 47.1% $711 71.5% Meade 10,690 2.63 74.5% 3.3 8.3 $154,200 37.5% $856 88.3% Nelson 17,991 2.52 78.1% 1.0 4.7 $164,200 39.7% $799 84.0% Taylor 9,659 2.52 63.6% 1.1 1.7 $122,800 47.1% $650 82.3% 10-County Region 145,298 2.58 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020, 5-year average. * Excludes group quarters population, such as corrections, nursing homes, dorms, and military quarters. The region has a high rate of homeownership, that is, the percentage of residents that own rather than rent their home. Only Hardin (61.0%) and Taylor (63.6%) are lower than the state average (67.6%). The share of homeowners without a mortgage varies among the counties. Grayson (55.7%) and Breckinridge (52.9%) have the highest rates, while Hardin (37.2%) and Bullitt (34.9%) have the lowest rates. The state average is 42.8%, and nationally it is 37.9%. Meade County has the highest percentage of households with a broadband internet subscription, followed by Bullitt and Nelson. Broadband access is lowest in Grayson, LaRue and Hart counties. For reference, the state average rate is 81.6%, and the national rate is 85.2%. Only Meade County has a higher average broadband connection rate than the United States. The household size calculation above removes the group quarters population from each county’s total population. The ACS only provides the total number of persons in group quarters13. To see the detailed breakouts, we need to turn to the decennial census data – the recently released results from the 2020 Census. Group quarters may refer to the institutionalized population (corrections, nursing) or noninstitutionalized population (dorms, military quarters). The next table summarizes the 2020 Census data on group quarters. Several things stand out. ➢ Hardin County has the only military quarters population in the region, at Fort Knox, with 1,260 residents. 13 Thanks to Dr. Matthew Ruther, Kentucky State Demographer, at the University of Louisville for helping us sort the group quarters measurement puzzle out. Page | 43 ➢ Taylor County has all the college dorm population in the region, at Campbellsville University, with 947 students. ➢ Grayson County has a high population in adult correctional facilities for adults, due to the Grayson County Detention Center in Leitchfield. The population in other counties in correctional facilities is a function of the county’s population (jails); however, interestingly, the Census reports zero correctional populations in Bullitt and Green counties. ➢ The nursing home population reflects the population size of the home county. Green County has the highest share of its population (0.9%) in nursing homes, double the regional average (0.4%). Recall from our previous demographic discussion that Green also has the highest median age in the region. Interestingly, the Census reports no nursing facility residents in LaRue County Group Quarters Population, 2020 Institutionalized population Noninstitutionalized population Nursing College/Uni Other Correctional facilities/Ski versity noninstituti facilities for Juvenile lled-nursing student Military onal Grand Total Total adults facilities facilities Total housing quarters facilities Breckinridge 299 273 207 0 66 26 7 0 19 Bullitt 147 112 0 26 86 35 0 0 35 Grayson 759 723 584 0 139 36 0 0 36 Green 95 95 0 0 95 0 0 0 0 Hardin 2,556 1,105 577 32 496 1,451 0 1,260 191 Hart 233 233 138 0 95 0 0 0 0 Larue 148 148 117 31 0 0 0 0 0 Meade 230 212 152 0 60 18 0 0 18 Nelson 649 268 122 0 146 381 0 0 381 Taylor 1,416 378 194 0 184 1,038 940 0 98 10-County Region 6,532 3,547 2,091 89 1,367 2,985 947 1,260 778 Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Census, DEC Redistricting Data (PL 94-171) We can now re-calculate the average household size by county using the more precise and more current 2020 Census data. We subtract the group quarters population from the total population of each county to get the household population. Then we divide the household population by the number of occupied housing units (households). These are shown in the next table. Meade (2.70) and Bullitt (2.61) have the most average persons per household, well above the regional average of 2.54. Green (2.39) and Taylor (2.42) have the fewest persons per household. For comparison, the state average is 2.44, and the national average is 2.55, persons per household. The 2020 household size estimates are a bit lower than those from the 2016-2020 ACS, reflecting a national trend in smaller household sizes. Bullitt County had a large drop. Page | 44 Households Total Group (occupied Population, Quarters Household housing Persons per 2020 Population Population units) Household Breckinridge 20,432 299 20,133 8,003 2.52 Bullitt 82,217 147 82,070 31,409 2.61 Grayson 26,420 759 25,661 10,440 2.46 Green 11,107 95 11,012 4,606 2.39 Hardin 110,702 2,556 108,146 42,933 2.52 Hart 19,288 233 19,055 7,418 2.57 Larue 14,867 148 14,719 5,879 2.50 Meade 30,003 230 29,773 11,045 2.70 Nelson 46,738 649 46,089 18,462 2.50 Taylor 26,023 1,416 24,607 10,171 2.42 10-County Region 387,797 6,532 381,265 150,366 2.54 Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Census, DEC Redistricting Data (PL 94-171) Page | 45 Jobs by County of Work The region supports about 177,000 jobs, up from 106,000 jobs five decades ago. This is a growth rate of 69 percent, compared to 82 percent statewide. Jobs are different than employed persons since some people hold more than one job. For example, if someone holds a part-time job at a retail establishment, but also has a sideline business as a consultant, they are counted twice – once as a wage job, and once as a proprietor. Similarly, a factory worker who also has a small farming operation gets counted twice, once as a wage worker, and once as a farm proprietor. Regardless, we can see the steady growth in jobs in the region, as well as the dip in 2020 due to Covid-19 restrictions and closures. Job Growth in 10-County Region Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 + Proprietors 120,000 100,000 Wage and Salary Jobs 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Focusing just on the wage and salary jobs, what has been the regional distribution of growth? Bullitt County dominates the county rankings, contributing almost one-half of all the job growth in the 10-county region over the last five decades, and most of it during the last decade. Nelson and Grayson counties had the next fastest growth rates in jobs. Interestingly, Hardin County, which is the largest employment center in the region, had almost no net job growth over the period. Similarly, the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA posted only a 7.9 percent job growth over the fifty years. That, of course, is about to change. Page | 46 Five Decades of Wage and Salary Job Growth, Elizabethtown Region 1970 2020 growth rate Breckinridge 2,469 3,990 1,521 61.6% Bullitt 2,882 27,418 24,536 851.4% Grayson 2,916 7,913 4,997 171.4% Green 1,793 1,982 189 10.5% Hardin 51,762 52,609 847 1.6% Hart 2,473 5,296 2,823 114.2% Larue 1,587 2,724 1,137 71.6% Meade 2,188 4,575 2,387 109.1% Nelson 5,596 16,571 10,975 196.1% Taylor 6,721 12,915 6,194 92.2% 10-County Region 80,387 135,993 55,606 69.2% Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA 55,537 59,908 4,371 7.9% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA is composed of Hardin, Larue and Meade counties. Wage and salary jobs only, excludes proprietors. Estimates on a place of work basis. Much of the regional job growth summarized above is service based, that is, retail, health care, personal services, and the like that is related to population growth. These are a mixture of part-time, low paying jobs (restaurants, convenience stores) and full-time, high paying jobs (hospitals, K-12 education). Economic growth in our part of the country depends on new jobs in ‘export-based’ industries, where the products are sold to the rest of the world, thus bringing new dollars into the region. This contrasts with areas with strong natural amenities, like oceans and mountains, which draw people to move there, with businesses following them for the talent. Farming is an important export-based industry in the Elizabethtown region, as is the military. However, the manufacturing and logistics are the biggest drivers of growth. Manufacturing has high multiplier effects. A job in, for example, an auto parts plant might support three or four other jobs in the region, through its supply chain and the rounds of re- spending of the employee wages. While farmers export much of their products outside the state, central Kentucky is not a major agricultural area. It is characterized by small farms growing corn and soybeans, as well as cow-calf operations and beef production. There are less than 10,000 farm proprietors in the 10-county region, down from 15,000 five decades ago. Their total farm income averaged only about $40 million per year over the past decade and was negative in 2016 and 2018. Military employment in the region is down to about 6,000, compared to 41,000 in 1970. Federal civilian employment, which includes some Fort Knox-related activity, but also post office and other administrative employees, is down to 5,800, compared to 7,000 five decades ago. Page | 47 Manufacturing is a very significant source of income in the region, with over 21,000 jobs. As one can see, employment peaked in 1997, fell for the next decade, but has been growing again since 2011. Hardin County has the most manufacturing jobs, accounting for almost one-third of the regional total. Together with Nelson, Bullitt and Hart, these four counties account for 80 percent of the regional total. Manufacturing Employment in 10-County Region 30,000 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Estimates through 2000 on a SIC basis; after 2000 on a NAICS basis. 25,000 Green Breckinridge Meade LaRue 20,000 Taylor Grayson Hart 15,000 Bullitt 10,000 Nelson 5,000 Hardin 0 Of course, the manufacturing industry covers a wide range of activities, some requiring little skill, others requiring great skill and training. Wages and salaries reflect the skill and training required, and there is wide variety around the region. Meade County easily tops the list, with average annual earnings of $117,000, not including fringe benefits. The latest data from BEA do not reflect the new Nucor Steel plant with its four hundred expected jobs. Hardin County ranks second, at $80,000. Green County ranks last at $45,000. Page | 48 Confidentiality rules prevent the federal government Average Annual Earnings, Manufacturing from disclosing employment and other economic information if one or two operations dominate a Jobs in Elizabethtown Region regional total. This is to prevent someone from 2010 2020 inferring a company’s actual payroll. Thus, there is not Breckinridge $44,860 $55,341 much data available on the size of the logistics Bullitt $50,005 $69,690 industries among the ten counties. Fortunately, there Grayson $42,412 $68,702 Green $28,413 $45,448 are enough business establishments in Bullitt County Hardin $66,749 $79,924 that the totals have been published since 2007. One Hart $40,387 $68,983 can see the tremendous growth in employment there, Larue $33,356 $50,052 with a five-fold increase in jobs since 2007. Meade $85,093 $117,245 Comparable data are also available for Hardin County, Nelson $56,013 $76,511 showing 1,700 transportation and warehousing jobs Taylor $37,043 $57,170 in 2020, up from 1,500 in 2007. 10-County $53,076 $73,606 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA $64,737 $79,892 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Recent Job Growth in Transporation and Warehousing, Bullitt County 9,000 8,296 8,000 8,025 7,813 7,929 7,000 7,041 6,000 5,983 5,186 5,000 4,538 4,444 4,000 3,301 3,000 2,354 1,932 2,000 1,936 1,488 1,000 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Page | 49 Personal Income of Residents Personal income for a county or other region is measured as follows. First, BEA estimates the wages, salaries and proprietors’ income of people working in, not necessarily residents of, the county. One can see that the total for the 10-county Elizabethtown region is $8.8 billion. Then BEA subtracts out employee and employer contributions to Social Security and Medicare. The next step is related to commuting patterns. An adjustment is made to net out how much residents earn in other counties minus how much nonresidents earn in their county. The result for our region is $2.1 billion, meaning that residents of the 10-county Elizabethtown region earn that much more working outside the region than nonresidents earn working in the region. Finally, BEA adds in property income to residents (dividends, interest, and rent), plus transfer payments. The resulting total personal income is $17.3 billion, or $44,772 per resident. For comparison, per capita income in Kentucky overall was $47,339, and in the United States was $59,510. Derivation of personal income, 10-County Region, 2020 Earnings by place of work $8,844,540 Less: Contributions for government social insurance $1,086,891 Plus: Adjustment for residence $2,059,129 Equals: Net earnings by place of residence $9,816,778 Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent $2,238,942 Plus: Personal current transfer receipts $5,213,650 Total Personal Income of Residents $17,269,370 Population 385,720 Per Capita Personal Income $44,772 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Dollars in thousands, except for per capita income. It is worth highlighting the county details on the residence adjustment, as it reveals much about regional commuting patterns. One can see that by far the largest adjustment is for Bullitt County, where so many residents work in Jefferson County. Recall that Bullitt County is part of the Louisville MSA. Bullitt County residents bring in over $1 billion in earnings by working in other counties than do nonresidents working in Bullitt. Meade and LaRue counties, of course, are part of the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA, and thus provide thousands of workers to Hardin County. Nelson County residents commute to Jefferson County and many other surrounding counties; indeed, in years past it has been deemed part of the Louisville MSA. Hardin County has the largest negative residence adjustment, reflecting its role as a central place of work for the region’s population – more nonresidents take their Page | 50 paychecks out than Hardin residents working outside the county bring paychecks home. Taylor County (Campbellsville) is the only other Residence Adjustment (000) county with negative residence adjustment. Both Hardin and Taylor to Personal Income, 2020 have had negative residence adjustment over the complete fifty-year Bullitt $1,073,048 period for which estimates are available from BEA. Meade $494,932 Transfer payments are a large source of personal income for the Nelson $422,129 region, as they are for the state of Kentucky. In 2020, transfer Larue $184,972 payments accounted for 30 percent of the personal income overall in the region. There is a wide range of dependence on these across the Breckinridge $160,012 counties, however. Transfers account for 43 percent of personal Grayson $107,419 income in Green County, and 40 percent in Taylor County. The lowest Green $98,716 rates are in Bullitt (25 percent), Nelson (27 percent) and Meade (27 percent). Hart $25,939 Taylor -$63,537 What are transfer payments? Economists define them as receipts of Hardin -$444,501 money or a valuable service for which no payment is required. One Source: US Bureau of Economic can see in the next table that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid Analysis are the main sources of transfer payments in the region (and across the state), accounting for almost two-thirds of the total. Unemployment insurance payments, income maintenance benefits, and veterans’ benefits are other major sources of transfers to the region. Page | 51 Transfer receipts (000) in 10-County Region, 2020 Share of Amount Total Current transfer receipts of individuals from governments $4,989,103 95.7% Retirement and disability insurance benefits $1,398,524 26.8% Social Security benefits $1,359,902 Excluding Social Security benefits $38,622 Medical benefits $1,881,999 36.1% Medicare benefits $997,269 Public assistance medical care benefits $812,949 Military medical insurance benefits $71,781 Income maintenance benefits $333,076 6.4% Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits $76,090 Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) $82,819 Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) $100,963 Other income maintenance benefits $73,204 Unemployment insurance compensation $501,163 9.6% State unemployment insurance compensation $499,115 Excluding state unemployment insurance compensation $2,048 Veterans' benefits $320,141 6.4% Education and training assistance $111,145 2.2% Other transfer receipts of individuals from governments $443,055 8.5% Current transfer receipts of nonprofit institutions $183,297 3.5% Current transfer receipts of individuals from businesses $41,250 0.8% Refundable tax credits $542,430 10.4% Total $5,213,650 100.0% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Page | 52 Commuting Patterns in the Elizabethtown Region The personal income discussion above touched on the ‘residence adjustment’ factor that converts worker earnings by county of work to income by county of residence. In this section, we examine these underlying commuting patterns more closely, and speculate about the possibility of adding counties to the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA. Data on county commuting patterns is not as current as those on jobs, population, and income, but the latest Census data reveal that all ten counties in this study contribute a significant number of workers to Hardin County. Jefferson County also supplies a lot of workers. One can see from accompanying table that the top eleven supplying counties account for 97 percent of all workers in Hardin County. By far the most important source of workers is Hardin County itself, providing 73 percent of the workers. The table on the right shows where Hardin County residents go to work. This yields a different pattern from the inflow table. Jefferson and Bullitt counties are major draws for Hardin residents, attracted by job opportunities in the large urban market of Louisville and the booming logistics industries in Bullitt County. Residence of Workers in Hardin County County of Work, Hardin County Residents Share of Share of Number Total Number Total Hardin County 40,498 73.1% Hardin County 40,498 81.4% Meade County 4,088 7.4% Jefferson County 4,012 8.1% Larue County 2,337 4.2% Bullitt County 1,568 3.2% Jefferson County 1,908 3.4% Larue County 632 1.3% Grayson County 1,371 2.5% Meade County 466 0.9% Nelson County 891 1.6% Nelson County 448 0.9% Breckinridge County 829 1.5% Grayson County 249 0.5% Hart County 778 1.4% Breckinridge County 110 0.2% Bullitt County 623 1.1% Warren County 96 0.2% Green County 290 0.5% Hart County 85 0.2% Taylor County 104 0.2% other 1 ,680 3.0% other 1,599 3.2% Total workers 55,397 100.0% Total workers 49,763 100.0% Source: US Census Bureau, estimates for 2011-15. Source: US Census Bureau, estimates for 2011-15. www.census.gov/data/tables/2015/demo/metro- www.census.gov/data/tables/2015/demo/metro- micro/commuting-flows-2015.html micro/commuting-flows-2015.html Page | 53 Warren County also makes the top ten, but Green and Taylor counties attracts only a few dozen Hardin residents and are not represented. Unfortunately, such detailed Census data are only available with a long lag time. The average over the years 2011 to 2015, as shown, has been calculated using detailed data from the annual American Community Survey, and is the latest available. We will also look at the historical commuting patterns more closely, with an eye to detecting more recent trends using some alternative data sources. The next batch of county-to-county worker flows will be based on the ACS for 2016-2020 and is expected to be released in 2023. What about the commuting flows among the ten study counties? First, consider LaRue and Meade counties, as they are officially part of the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA. The county-to-county flow of workers is the primary consideration in defining MSAs, and this shows up clearly in the data. One can see in the first table above that Meade and LaRue are the top two suppliers of nonresident workers to Hardin. More Meade residents work in Hardin (4,988) than work in Meade (3,733). And more LaRue residents work in Hardin (2,337) than in LaRue (2,142). Top Five County Destinations for Work County of Residence 1 2 3 4 5 Breckinridge Breckinridge Hardin Jefferson Perry Grayson Bullitt Jefferson Bullitt Hardin Clark Nelson Grayson Grayson Hardin Jefferson Warren Ohio Green Green Taylor Hardin Hart Marion Hardin Hardin Jefferson Bullitt Larue Meade Hart Hart Barren Hardin Warren Jefferson LaRue Hardin Larue Jefferson Nelson Bullitt Meade Hardin Meade Jefferson Harrison Bullitt Nelson Nelson Jefferson Bullitt Hardin Washington Taylor Taylor Marion Adair Green Jefferson Source: US Census Bureau, estimates for 2011-15. www.census.gov/data/tables/2015/demo/metro-micro/commuting-flows-2015.html None of the other counties in the study region have such a strong employment interchange with Hardin County as do LaRue and Meade. Some are more pulled into the Louisville orbit (Bullitt). Some are pulled south towards Bowling Green (Hart). And some have sufficient job opportunities in their home counties that the commute to Hardin is less attractive (Breckinridge, Grayson, Green, Nelson, Taylor). We anticipate shifts in this dynamic as Hardin County provides many more high-paying jobs over the next decade. Page | 54 Another Census Bureau program, OnTheMap (OTM), provides more current, though less comprehensive, information on the place of residence for workers. This program merges data on individuals from the Unemployment Insurance system and other federal state databases and can identify worker flows down to the census track and zip code level. It matches the person’s work address to his or her home address, and generates detailed estimates by age, gender, industry and pay. Jobs in Hardin County, by Residence of Worker, 2019 Private County of All Private Primary Primary Residence All Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Hardin 21,778 16,428 20,686 15,478 Jefferson 2,512 2,309 2,314 2,122 Larue 2,037 1,644 1,950 1,568 Meade 1,904 1,532 1,815 1,448 Grayson 1,289 1,044 1,247 1,009 Nelson 1,150 844 1,095 802 Bullitt 1,007 894 951 841 Breckinridge 830 713 787 675 Fayette 480 430 442 400 Daviess 469 425 438 399 Warren 468 409 440 385 Barren 446 393 422 373 Hart 426 373 409 358 Oldham 355 318 332 298 Shelby 322 290 293 264 other 7,624 6,724 7,154 6,303 Total 43,097 34,770 40,775 32,723 Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap, https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/ The latest data on residence of Hardin County workers is shown in the table above. The OTM data do not match the commuting data just analyzed, as the program obviously covers fewer workers. However, the top suppliers of workers are the same as we found using the older Census data on county-to-county commuting. Jefferson, Larue, Meade, Grayson, Nelson, Bullitt, and Breckinridge top both lists. This is an indication that the basic commuting patterns in the region have not changed much over the last decade. Green and Taylor counties do not show up in the top twenty-five supplying counties in the OTM database. Page | 55 The OTM program provides estimates going back to 2002. The next chart shows the top ten counties supplying workers in Hardin County, focusing only on ‘primary jobs,’ or those most likely to support a commute to another county. One can see the effects of the 2008-10 national recession, but that there has been no discernable change in the proportions over this long time. Hardin County Workers, County of Residence, Primary Jobs 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Hardin Jefferson Larue Meade Grayson Nelson Bullitt Breckinridge Fayette Warren Possibility of Additional Counties for the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA The US Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is the official determiner of MSA boundaries. It currently relies on the results of the ACS commuting patterns discussed above, using non-overlapping five-year ACS results. This means the next measures considered will be from the 2016-2020 ACS, expected to be released in 2023. There are a lot of definitions and rules involved, but for the current issue the main criteria has to do with adding counties to an existing MSA: “Outlying Counties A county qualifies as an outlying county of a CBSA if it meets the following commuting requirements: (a) At least 25 percent of the workers living in the county work in the central county or counties of the CBSA”, where the CBSA is the Core Based Statistical Area that can refer to metropolitan or micropolitan areas.14 14 See the Office of Management and Budget 2010 Standards for Delineating Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas; Notice June 28, 2010, www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2010-06-28/pdf/2010-15605.pdf Page | 56 Current commuting patterns only support the inclusion of LaRue and Meade counties, which have over 35 percent of their working residents Share of Working County working in Hardin County. The next highest is Grayson, where 1,371 Residents that Work in Hardin resident workers commute to Hardin. This is 13.4 percent of all working County residents of Grayson. Using the historical data, it would take another 1,200 commuters from Grayson to Hardin County to meet the 25 Breckinridge 11.0% percent criteria. Bullitt 1.7% More information on MSA boundary expansion can be found in the Grayson 13.4% section which focuses on this issue, beginning on Page 187. Green 6.6% Hart 11.5% LaRue 41.5% Meade 35.1% Nelson 4.5% Taylor 1.0% Source: US Census Bureau, estimates for 2011-15. www.census.gov/data/tables/2015/de mo/metro-micro/commuting-flows- 2015.html Page | 57 Page | 58 Elizabethtown – Fort Knox Metropolitan Statistical Area Peer MSA Analysis By Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Major industrial developments are occurring in the greater Elizabethtown area, and local leaders are endeavoring to both maximize the regional economic impacts and to prepare the community for anticipated new needs, such as infrastructure, workforce development, housing, and land use planning. This section of our research examines a set of similar metropolitan areas to learn where the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) now stands in terms of demographics, education, economic structure, household income, and other important measures. Such ‘peer cities analyses’ have been used extensively by economic development groups around the US, including nearby markets Louisville and Owensboro. There are 385 MSAs in the US, ranging in population size from Carson City, NV (56,000) to New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (19,124,000). The Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA has a population of 154,000. Elizabethtown is located on one of busiest interstate highways in the country, the north-south I-65, and is served also by limited access parkways running east and west. It has a long close historical tie with nearby Fort Knox, a major Army facility. And the MSA supports about 7,500 manufacturing jobs, with thousands more in the pipeline. We use these features to filter across the 385 MSAs to find similar places. We have identified eleven other MSAs that roughly fit the following criteria: (a) population between 100,000 and 300,000, (b) existence of interstate highway, (c) not a state capitol, (d) not a college town, (e) presence of military installation, (f) with at least 5,000 manufacturing jobs, or (g) have some other compelling similarity to Elizabethtown-Fort Knox. The twelve MSAs are shown in the table and on the map below. All are on or near an interstate highway. Most have a major military installation; however, three are home to large universities. • Bloomington, IN is home to Indiana University, and thus a classic college town. There is no military installation there. However, it does have substantial manufacturing employment. Interstate 69 passes through it, and it is only thirty-five miles west of I-65. • Bowling Green, KY is also home to a large public university, Western Kentucky University; and there is no military installation. However, it is along I-65 south of Elizabethtown, and has very substantial manufacturing activity. Moreover, an electric vehicle battery plant is also planned there. • Clarksville, TN-KY has the largest population of the group and is of course home to Fort Campbell. It is served by I-24, which connects Nashville and St. Louis. Page | 59 Peer Metropolitan Statistical Areas State Military's Government's MSA Manufacturing Share of Total Share of Total Code Population Jobs Jobs Jobs 14020 Bloomington, IN 169,052 9,817 0.5% ND 14540 Bowling Green, KY 180,751 12,593 0.5% 4.6% 17300 Clarksville, TN-KY 314,364 12,481 18.5% 2.3% 19460 Decatur, AL 152,740 13,688 0.8% 1.2% 21060 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 154,356 7,530 7.4% 1.9% 24140 Goldsboro, NC 123,967 5,415 8.5% 5.7% 25620 Hattiesburg, MS 169,554 6,400 1.4% 4.6% 30020 Lawton, OK 126,775 3,621 19.3% 2.4% 36220 Odessa, TX 167,701 5,166 0.3% 1.7% 44940 Sumter, SC 139,775 7,113 9.9% 2.7% 47580 Warner Robins, GA 188,060 8,853 4.1% 2.2% 48660 Wichita Falls, TX 152,485 5,183 7.2% 3.8% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, estimates for 2020. Manufacturing jobs in Warner Robins not disclosed for 2020; 2017 estimate used. State government employment in Bloomington is not disclosed due to Indiana University dominating the total. • Decatur, AL, further down I-65, is near the Redstone Arsenal and Huntsville, with its well-known concentration of military personnel and researchers. It has twice the concentration of manufacturing jobs as Elizabethtown-Fort Knox. • Goldsboro, NC is the smallest of the MSAs, is on I-795 and near to I-95. It is home to the Seymour- Johnson Air Force Base. • Hattiesburg, MS is on I-59, and has a major Army Training center. It is also home to Southern Mississippi University, with 14,000 students, so it can also be considered a college town, though not so much as Bloomington and Bowling Green. • Lawton, OK is on I-44, and is home to Fort Sill Military Reservation, with 5,000 employees. It has the fewest manufacturing jobs of any of the peers. • Odessa, TX is located on I-20 out on the high Texas plains. Historically, its fate rises and falls with the oil market, but it nevertheless has a substantial manufacturing base. Sumter, SC is close to I-95 and I-20 and is home to Shaw Air Force Base. Page | 60 • Warner Robbins, GA is on I-75, just south of Macon. It is home to Robbins Air Force Base. • Wichita Falls, TX is northwest of Fort Worth, on I-44. It is home to Sheppard Air Force Base, with its 7,200 employees. These twelve cities are in ten states as shown on the map15. All but Bloomington are to the south of Elizabethtown. Summary of Findings Not surprisingly, because the peers have been chosen for their similarities to the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA, we find a high correlation among them for most measures. However, Elizabethtown does stand out in a few areas: 1. Relatively strong growth in manufacturing jobs over the past few decades. 2. High annual pay for manufacturing jobs. 15 Christopher Butz created the map. Page | 61 3. High concentration in production, transportation and material moving occupations. It ranks very low in sales and administrative office occupations, and also low in the service occupations. 4. Despite the presence of Fort Knox, the MSA does only ranks fifth highest in military’s share of total employment. It does rank third in the number of working age veterans (12,000) and in the total number of resident Armed Forces (4,000). 5. Older population, with few foreign-born residents. 6. Elizabethtown-Fort Knox is one of just two MSAs without a college dorm population. The other is Decatur. Historical Population Growth One can see in the next table how these MSAs have grown in terms of total population over the past five decades. Clarksville clearly stands out, both in terms of total number of residents added and in percentage terms. Warner Robbins ranks highly in both categories, as does Bowling Green. Elizabethtown-Fort Knox ranks eighth in absolute population growth and ninth in percentage growth. Wichita Falls posted very small net population growth over the period, and essentially no growth over the last decade. Manufacturing Job Growth Five Decades of Population Growth, Peer MSAs Growth MSA 1970 to Code 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2020 Rate 14020 Bloomington, IN 97,656 115,057 126,773 142,709 160,140 169,052 71,396 73.1% 14540 Bowling Green, KY 89,652 107,557 114,270 135,367 159,352 180,751 91,099 101.6% 17300 Clarksville, TN-KY 135,674 168,672 190,352 233,367 274,994 314,364 178,690 131.7% 19460 Decatur, AL 105,018 120,435 132,118 146,095 153,956 152,740 47,722 45.4% 21060 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 107,652 123,258 125,466 134,506 149,852 154,356 46,704 43.4% 24140 Goldsboro, NC 85,747 97,314 104,896 113,648 122,891 123,967 38,220 44.6% 25620 Hattiesburg, MS 96,397 116,240 126,171 143,768 162,866 169,554 73,157 75.9% 30020 Lawton, OK 114,835 120,234 118,112 121,695 131,568 126,775 11,940 10.4% 36220 Odessa, TX 92,704 117,052 118,652 120,694 137,060 167,701 74,997 80.9% 44940 Sumter, SC 105,380 116,269 129,782 137,330 142,557 139,775 34,395 32.6% 47580 Warner Robins, GA 79,693 97,150 110,920 135,165 168,518 188,060 108,367 136.0% 48660 Wichita Falls, TX 134,547 138,486 140,303 151,847 151,657 152,485 17,938 13.3% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA has posted strong manufacturing growth over the past few decades, and now has more than twice as many jobs as it did in 1970. Among the peer MSAs, only Warner Robins had faster growth, both in absolute and percentage terms. Goldsboro and Sumter on net lost manufacturing jobs over the period. Page | 62 Manufacturing Employment in Peer Cities Growth, 1970 to 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2020 Rate Bloomington, IN 9,566 8,374 10,589 10,879 8,815 9,817 251 2.6% Bowling Green, KY 8,172 9,967 10,528 14,169 (D) 12,593 4,421 54.1% Clarksville, TN-KY 9,020 12,038 12,671 15,516 10,236 12,481 3,461 38.4% Decatur, AL 12,263 14,988 16,568 (D) 12,187 13,688 1,425 11.6% Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 3,159 5,072 6,112 7,978 5,427 7,530 4,371 138.4% Goldsboro, NC 6,702 9,138 8,959 7,335 5,311 5,415 -1,287 -19.2% Hattiesburg, MS 7,319 8,444 9,004 8,261 4,917 6,400 -919 -12.6% Lawton, OK 2,068 3,549 3,506 3,859 (D) 3,621 1,553 75.1% Odessa, TX 3,621 7,574 4,562 4,972 4,826 5,166 1,545 42.7% Sumter, SC 8,604 10,908 11,627 14,378 6,704 7,113 -1,491 -17.3% Warner Robins, GA 2,929 5,218 5,588 6,708 7,200 8,853 5,924 202.3% Wichita Falls, TX 4,125 9,982 8,733 9,055 5,490 5,183 1,058 25.6% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Estimates before 2001 are on a SIC basis, and thereafter on a NAICS basis. D: not disclosed due to confidentiality rules. Warner-Robbins data not disclosed for 2020; 2017 estimate shown here. Average Pay The average wage and salary job in the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA paid $48,654 in 2020. The national average was $64,018, which is pulled up by the largest urban markets with their concentration of high paying professional jobs. One can see in the table that all the peer cities had average pay less than that for the United States, though oil drilling mecca Odessa comes close16. Elizabethtown ranks fourth highest among the peers, after Odessa, Warner Robins, and Decatur. This reflects Elizabethtown’s high concentration of manufacturing employment. 16 Odessa supports between 10,000 and 15,000 oil-related jobs, depending on market conditions. By contrast, the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA supports less than 200 mining jobs, in rock quarrying. Page | 63 Average Annual Pay Relative to United States Total Average Pay, 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2020 Bloomington, IN 0.81 0.77 0.77 0.74 0.71 0.73 $46,912 Bowling Green, KY 0.72 0.79 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.70 $44,588 Clarksville, TN-KY 0.77 0.81 0.76 0.76 0.88 0.76 $48,519 Decatur, AL 0.86 0.92 0.85 0.83 0.81 0.77 $49,415 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 0.77 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.85 0.76 $48,654 Goldsboro, NC 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.71 $45,465 Hattiesburg, MS 0.70 0.74 0.73 0.68 0.71 0.67 $42,705 Lawton, OK 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.73 0.85 0.73 $46,946 Odessa, TX 0.95 1.10 0.89 0.78 0.93 0.95 $60,968 Sumter, SC 0.65 0.71 0.74 0.69 0.73 0.72 $46,325 Warner Robins, GA 1.04 0.98 0.90 0.88 0.92 0.80 $51,248 Wichita Falls, TX 0.82 0.87 0.80 0.71 0.74 0.69 $44,128 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Wages and salaries divided by wage and salary employment. Manufacturing jobs in the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA average almost $80,000 per year in pay. This is fourth highest Average Annual Pay per Job in among the peers and is why it ranks high in overall pay per job. Decatur is easily the highest in terms of manufacturing Manufacturing, 2020 pay, at $89,000 per job. It is home a GE Appliance-Haier Bloomington, IN $79,066 (refrigerators) plant, with about 1,400 jobs, a 3M plant with Bowling Green, KY $64,996 950 employees, and the Nucor Steel mill, with over seven hundred employees17. Clarksville, TN-KY $67,275 Decatur, AL $88,762 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY $79,892 Goldsboro, NC $65,572 Hattiesburg, MS $60,918 Lawton, OK $80,367 Odessa, TX $80,134 Sumter, SC $67,209 Warner Robins, GA $61,671 Wichita Falls, TX $72,643 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for Warner Robins not disclosed for 2020; 2017 data shown. 17 See https://mceda.org/facts-mapWe nows/top-employers Page | 64 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics We now take a deeper look at the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the peer cities. The most recent data are from the American Community Survey, produced by the US Census Bureau. The survey is performed every year, but the accuracy is improved for smaller places by averaging several years of data. The five- year ACS, 2016-2020 is the latest available, and we explore some of the results next. Percent of Percent Veterans, Median Population Foreign Aged 18 to Population Age Aged 65+ Born 64 Bloomington, IN 168,172 31.5 13.8% 7.3% 3,697 Bowling Green, KY 176,852 35.1 14.3% 7.1% 4,786 Clarksville, TN-KY 304,584 31.2 11.1% 4.5% 27,325 Decatur, AL 152,321 40.9 17.6% 3.7% 4,311 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 152,275 37.7 14.4% 3.4% 11,695 Goldsboro, NC 123,785 37.6 16.4% 7.0% 7,268 Hattiesburg, MS 168,646 35.5 14.3% 2.2% 5,534 Lawton, OK 127,157 33.6 13.0% 5.6% 10,517 Odessa, TX 162,067 30.6 9.6% 13.9% 3,166 Sumter, SC 140,540 38.5 18.1% 2.8% 7,249 Warner Robins, GA 182,819 35.8 13.1% 5.8% 13,691 Wichita Falls, TX 151,352 35.7 15.6% 5.6% 6,858 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020 5-year average. The median age of the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA population is 37.7. Only Decatur and Sumter have an older population. Odessa, with its young oil workers and large immigrant population has the lowest median age (30.6) and the smallest share of residents aged sixty-five or older (9.6%). The two college towns, Bloomington and Bowling Green, skew younger, and their foreign-born share is lifted by foreign students. The presence of large military installations provides a high number of working-age veterans for Clarksville, Warner Robins, Elizabethtown- Fort Knox, and Lawton. Human Capital Most of the residents of the peer cities have completed high school, though in Odessa almost one-fourth of the population is without a high school diploma. The distribution gets much wider when considering college degrees. Over 49 percent of Bloomington residents have at least a bachelor’s degree, and over 19 percent have a graduate or professional degree. Odessa is again at the bottom, with only 17 percent of residents with a college degree. The Page | 65 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA ranks eighth highest in college attainment (20.7 percent), and 7th highest for advanced degrees (8.9 percent). Percent with a Graduate or High School College Professional Attainment* Attainment* Degree Bloomington, IN 91.9% 40.7% 19.4% Bowling Green, KY 86.4% 27.1% 11.1% Clarksville, TN-KY 91.3% 26.0% 9.2% Decatur, AL 83.3% 20.1% 6.6% Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 90.6% 20.7% 8.9% Goldsboro, NC 85.5% 19.8% 6.2% Hattiesburg, MS 87.8% 27.1% 10.4% Lawton, OK 90.4% 22.8% 9.3% Odessa, TX 76.6% 16.6% 4.9% Sumter, SC 85.3% 19.5% 7.5% Warner Robins, GA 91.3% 29.6% 13.0% Wichita Falls, TX 88.6% 23.1% 7.6% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020 5-year average. * Percentage of persons aged 25 and older with at least a high school or bachelors degree. Labor Force Characteristics The labor force includes persons aged sixteen or older that are employed and those seeking work (unemployed). Economic statisticians distinguish between the civilian labor force and those in the armed forces. The latest labor force estimates for the peer cities are provided in the next table. For example, the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA has 120,000 persons aged 16+. Of those, 3,900 are in the military, 67,000 are employed civilians, 4,300 are seeking work, and 45,000 are not in the labor force. Those not in the labor force may be retired, disabled, raising children, taking care of an ill person, or simply not actively seeking work. One can see the strong military presence in Clarksville, Lawton, Wichita Falls, Warner Robins, Elizabethtown, and Sumter. The raw numbers need some interpretation. A useful summary measure is the “Employment Rate,” measured as the percentage of adults who are working, either as civilians or in the armed forces. Elizabethtown-Fort Knox ranks in the middle of the peers, with an employment rate of 59 percent. Odessa tops the list with an employment rate of almost 64 percent. Sumter and Decatur are at the bottom. Page | 66 Employment Rate Percent of Population Aged 16+ Working Odessa, TX 63.9% Warner Robins, GA 61.0% Clarksville, TN-KY 60.9% Bowling Green, KY 60.6% Wichita Falls, TX 59.6% Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 59.0% Lawton, OK 58.6% Bloomington, IN 58.1% Goldsboro, NC 57.3% Hattiesburg, MS 56.1% Decatur, AL 53.2% Sumter, SC 51.9% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% The widely reported unemployment rate is a measure of the mismatch between labor supply and demand, though it can be misleading. It is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed by the sum of those employed and those unemployed (the civilian labor force). When people want to work, but give up searching for a job, they are no longer counted as unemployed – they are out of the labor force. Thus, it is possible to have a low unemployment rate but a lot of people on the sidelines. For the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA the average unemployment rate Page | 67 over the five-year period was 6.0 percent. This is eighth highest among the peers, bracketed by Sumter (9.3 percent) and Wichita Falls (4.4 percent). Population, Civilian Civilian Armed Not in the Age 16+ Employed Unemployed Forces Labor Force Bloomington, IN 143,758 83,450 5,565 104 54,639 Bowling Green, KY 141,187 85,431 4,766 105 50,885 Clarksville, TN-KY 231,964 120,694 8,257 20,577 82,436 Decatur, AL 121,820 64,708 3,110 61 53,941 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 120,174 66,919 4,271 3,945 45,039 Goldsboro, NC 97,864 53,058 3,031 3,023 38,752 Hattiesburg, MS 132,588 73,636 6,256 789 51,907 Lawton, OK 100,348 50,243 3,598 8,523 37,984 Odessa, TX 118,021 75,343 5,305 42 37,331 Sumter, SC 112,132 54,819 5,541 3,329 48,443 Warner Robins, GA 142,579 82,810 5,352 4,206 50,211 Wichita Falls, TX 120,969 65,849 3,016 6,215 45,889 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020 5-year average. What is the distribution of employed persons by industry among the peer MSAs? The ACS provides twelve industrial categories, summarized in the next two tables. The first column provides the number of employed civilians in the MSAs, and the other columns show the percentage distribution across industries. As expected, the Agriculture, forestry, Transportation Employed fishing and and Civilians, hunting, and Wholesale warehousing, Aged 16+ mining Construction Manufacturing trade Retail trade and utilities Bloomington, IN 83,450 0.7% 5.5% 10.8% 1.4% 9.8% 3.7% Bowling Green, KY 85,431 1.7% 6.5% 16.6% 3.0% 12.4% 5.8% Clarksville, TN-KY 120,694 1.2% 6.8% 13.3% 2.0% 11.1% 5.2% Decatur, AL 64,708 1.2% 8.6% 22.0% 2.6% 11.6% 4.6% Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 66,919 0.9% 6.3% 15.8% 1.7% 11.7% 6.4% Goldsboro, NC 53,058 4.2% 6.2% 13.8% 2.7% 13.3% 4.4% Hattiesburg, MS 73,636 2.4% 6.4% 10.7% 2.4% 12.2% 5.5% Lawton, OK 50,243 2.0% 5.5% 10.0% 1.1% 11.8% 3.5% Odessa, TX 75,343 15.2% 8.0% 6.3% 3.9% 13.4% 8.7% Sumter, SC 54,819 1.9% 7.0% 15.2% 2.1% 10.7% 5.9% Warner Robins, GA 82,810 0.8% 4.8% 8.6% 1.4% 13.2% 5.5% Wichita Falls, TX 65,849 3.5% 6.5% 8.4% 2.0% 13.2% 6.1% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020 5-year average. Page | 68 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA ranks high in Manufacturing (third) and the ‘Transportation and warehousing, and utilities’ (2nd) industries. It ranks first in the Information industry, though this is a very small share of employment in all the MSAs. It ranks low in ‘Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining.’ and in the ‘Educational services, and health care and social assistance’ industries, both 10ths highest. Professional, scientific, and Arts, management, entertainment, Finance and and Educational and recreation, insurance, and administrative services, and and real estate and and waste health care accommodatio Other services, rental and management and social n and food except public Public Information leasing services assistance services administration administration Bloomington, IN 1.8% 4.5% 7.7% 34.4% 11.1% 4.4% 4.1% Bowling Green, KY 1.0% 4.0% 7.9% 23.7% 10.6% 4.4% 2.3% Clarksville, TN-KY 1.6% 4.4% 9.8% 23.2% 9.5% 4.6% 7.4% Decatur, AL 1.2% 3.6% 8.6% 19.5% 8.3% 4.7% 3.4% Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 2.0% 4.8% 7.7% 20.9% 9.2% 4.9% 7.7% Goldsboro, NC 1.0% 3.5% 7.5% 22.9% 8.9% 5.4% 6.1% Hattiesburg, MS 1.2% 4.9% 6.3% 27.5% 11.3% 4.9% 4.3% Lawton, OK 1.3% 4.6% 8.5% 25.8% 11.2% 5.2% 9.6% Odessa, TX 1.2% 4.5% 6.4% 16.3% 8.1% 5.2% 2.8% Sumter, SC 1.4% 4.2% 7.7% 23.4% 8.6% 5.5% 6.4% Warner Robins, GA 1.2% 5.1% 9.0% 21.7% 9.2% 4.0% 15.5% Wichita Falls, TX 1.4% 5.0% 6.9% 24.7% 11.0% 5.7% 5.6% What is the distribution of occupations in the peer MSAs? The next table provides a summary. In fitting with its large manufacturing base, the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA has a high concentration in ‘Production, transportation and material moving’ occupations. It ranks very low in ‘Sales and office’ occupations, and also low in the Service occupations (healthcare support, firefighting, law enforcement, food preparation, building maintenance, personal care). Production, Management, Natural resources, transportation, business, science, construction, and and material and arts Service Sales and office maintenance movin Bloomington, IN 44.0% 18.7% 19.0% 6.8% 11.4% Bowling Green, KY 32.3% 17.8% 21.7% 9.1% 19.1% Clarksville, TN-KY 32.1% 19.1% 21.9% 10.0% 16.9% Decatur, AL 30.6% 16.2% 20.3% 10.9% 22.0% Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 33.8% 16.7% 19.5% 10.6% 19.5% Goldsboro, NC 29.6% 19.8% 20.6% 11.9% 18.1% Hattiesburg, MS 34.3% 17.5% 23.3% 9.2% 15.7% Lawton, OK 37.3% 19.9% 20.2% 9.4% 13.2% Odessa, TX 23.8% 14.8% 24.0% 17.4% 20.0% Sumter, SC 29.0% 18.6% 22.6% 10.8% 19.1% Warner Robins, GA 35.4% 17.0% 23.8% 10.4% 13.5% Wichita Falls, TX 32.3% 20.1% 21.2% 11.3% 15.1% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020 5-year average. Page | 69 Household Characteristics The Census Bureau defines a household as an ‘occupied housing unit.’ It could refer to a single adult, a married couple with kids, unrelated roommates of any age, or anything in between. As one can see in the table, most of the peer cities have households averaging around two and one-half people each. Odessa with its large young immigrant population has the highest household size (2.99). Elizabethtown-Fort Knox ranks in the middle of the peers in terms of persons per household. It ranks higher in median and average household income (third). But it ranks only eighth in terms of the share of households with a broadband connection. Percent of Households Average Median Average with Number of Household Household Household Broadband Households Size Income Income Connection Bloomington, IN 65,229 2.34 $52,226 $70,787 86.4% Bowling Green, KY 67,547 2.50 $51,591 $72,185 84.4% Clarksville, TN-KY 111,845 2.63 $54,911 $70,402 84.5% Decatur, AL 58,939 2.55 $51,842 $68,866 75.1% Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 58,528 2.55 $56,680 $75,605 80.7% Goldsboro, NC 48,198 2.51 $47,221 $65,694 83.7% Hattiesburg, MS 62,222 2.64 $48,231 $67,866 77.2% Lawton, OK 45,456 2.59 $52,219 $70,509 86.0% Odessa, TX 53,602 2.99 $63,096 $83,130 84.1% Sumter, SC 54,479 2.51 $45,854 $60,607 77.4% Warner Robins, GA 68,257 2.63 $63,074 $78,422 86.1% Wichita Falls, TX 56,210 2.44 $51,099 $67,321 80.5% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020 5-year average. Page | 70 The household size calculation above removes the group quarters population from each county’s total population. The ACS only provides the total number of persons in group quarters18. To see the detailed breakouts, we need to turn to the decennial census data – the recently released results from the 2020 Census. Group quarters may refer to the institutionalized population (corrections, nursing) or noninstitutionalized population (dorms, military quarters). The next table summarizes the 2020 Census data on group quarters. Several things stand out. ➢ The college dorm population is very significant in Bloomington, Bowling Green and Hattiesburg. Elizabethtown-Fort Knox is one of just two MSAs without student housing. Institutionalized population: Noninstitutionalized population: Nursing Total Correctio facilities/ Other College/U Other nal Skilled- instituti niversity noninstit facilities Juvenile nursing onal student Military utional Subtotal for adults facilities facilities facilities Subtotal housing quarters facilities Bloomington, IN 12,441 1,250 255 21 927 47 11,191 10,645 0 546 Bowling Green, KY 6,354 1,574 616 35 808 115 4,780 4,391 0 389 Clarksville, TN-KY 9,874 3,122 1,777 47 1,168 130 6,752 1,450 5,049 253 Decatur, AL 2,501 2,284 1,443 33 792 16 217 0 0 217 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 2,934 1,465 846 63 556 0 1,469 0 1,260 209 Goldsboro, NC 3,972 2,516 1,388 26 491 611 1,456 400 580 476 Hattiesburg, MS 6,598 1,811 363 58 1,324 66 4,787 4,297 0 490 Lawton, OK 9,470 3,955 3,008 68 707 172 5,515 161 5,174 180 Odessa, TX 2,550 1,245 782 40 423 0 1,305 674 0 631 Sumter, SC 3,812 2,543 1,737 78 728 0 1,269 410 419 440 Warner Robins, GA 2,999 1,080 482 21 577 0 1,919 1,168 302 449 Wichita Falls, TX 11,268 5,133 4,091 35 1,002 5 6,135 1,594 4,200 341 Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Census, DEC Redistricting Data (PL 94-171) ➢ The military quarters population stands out in Lawton, Clarksville, and Wichita Falls, with Elizabethtown- Fort Knox ranking fourth. ➢ The corrections population is very large in Wichita Falls (Alfred Unit maximum security prison) and Lawton (Lawton Correctional Facility, medium security, adult male). ➢ The nursing home population follows the population size of the MSAs. The ACS provides detailed estimates of homeownership and related housing variables. The Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA does not really stand out in any of these measures. Bloomington, Clarksville, and Bowling Green have the highest median home values, while Wichita Falls, Sumter, and Lawton have the lowest home values. Odessa, Bloomington, and Clarksville have the highest median monthly rents, while Decatur, Sumter, and Goldsboro have the lowest rents. 18 Thanks to Dr. Matthew Ruther, Kentucky State Demographer, at the University of Louisville for helping us sort the group quarters measurement puzzle out. Page | 71 Share of Owner- Median Occupied Median Rent Home Value, Owner- Housing Units of Occupied Homeowner Rental Ownership Occupied Without a Units Paying Vacancy Rate Vacancy Rate Rate Units Mortgage Rent Bloomington, IN 1.4 5.2 58.3% $177,700 37.3% $931 Bowling Green, KY 1.4 5.4 62.7% $161,500 40.6% $798 Clarksville, TN-KY 1.6 8.1 59.3% $165,100 33.6% $920 Decatur, AL 0.9 6.7 73.5% $137,600 49.7% $666 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 1.9 7.7 65.0% $153,700 38.4% $806 Goldsboro, NC 1.4 3.8 62.9% $125,900 43.6% $784 Hattiesburg, MS 1.3 10.5 65.1% $135,600 48.2% $815 Lawton, OK 3.1 7.7 54.4% $121,500 41.0% $810 Odessa, TX 1.3 7.0 65.5% $147,900 54.2% $1,073 Sumter, SC 1.9 5.8 67.5% $116,000 49.4% $773 Warner Robins, GA 1.5 6.9 66.0% $155,200 32.7% $907 Wichita Falls, TX 2.1 10.8 63.9% $106,500 51.5% $818 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016-2020 5-year average. Next, we summarize the MSA rankings for selected measures discussed above. Ranking of Metro Areas for Selected Indicators Median Household Number of Residents Median Age Working Age Veterans Income College Attainment Rate 1 Clarksville Decatur, AL Clarksville Odessa Bloomington 2 Warner Robins Sumter Warner Robins Warner Robins Warner Robins 3 Bowling Green Elizabethtown-Fort Knox Elizabethtown-Fort Knox Elizabethtown-Fort Knox Bowling Green 4 Hattiesburg Goldsboro Lawton Clarksville Hattiesburg 5 Bloomington Warner Robins Goldsboro Bloomington Clarksville 6 Odessa Wichita Falls Sumter Lawton Wichita Falls 7 Decatur, AL Hattiesburg Wichita Falls Decatur, AL Lawton 8 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox Bowling Green Hattiesburg Bowling Green Elizabethtown-Fort Knox 9 Wichita Falls Lawton Bowling Green Wichita Falls Decatur, AL 10 Sumter Bloomington Decatur, AL Hattiesburg Goldsboro 11 Lawton Clarksville Bloomington Goldsboro Sumter 12 Goldsboro Odessa Odessa Sumter Odessa Page | 72 Ranking of Metro Areas for Selected Indicators Growth Rate, Manufacturing Average Annual Pay in Student housing Military quarters Employment Rate Employment, 1970 to 2020 Manfuacturing population population 1 Odessa Warner Robins Decatur, AL Bloomington Lawton 2 Warner Robins Elizabethtown-Fort Knox Lawton Bowling Green Clarksville 3 Clarksville Lawton Odessa Hattiesburg Wichita Falls 4 Bowling Green Bowling Green Elizabethtown-Fort Knox Wichita Falls Elizabethtown-Fort Knox 5 Wichita Falls Odessa Bloomington Clarksville Goldsboro 6 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox Clarksville Wichita Falls Warner Robins Sumter 7 Lawton Wichita Falls Clarksville Odessa Warner Robins 8 Bloomington Decatur, AL Sumter Sumter Bloomington 9 Goldsboro Bloomington Goldsboro Goldsboro Bowling Green 10 Hattiesburg Hattiesburg Bowling Green Lawton Decatur, AL 11 Decatur, AL Sumter Warner Robins Decatur, AL Hattiesburg 12 Sumter Goldsboro Hattiesburg Elizabethtown-Fort Knox Odessa Page | 73 Page | 74 Economic and Fiscal Impacts of BlueOval SK EV Battery Plant on Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA: Preliminary Estimates Introduction BlueOval SK Battery Park is now under construction. The battery park, located on the Glendale megasite just south of Elizabethtown will have a profound impact on Elizabethtown, Hardin County and all of Kentucky. BlueOval SK Battery Park will be the largest electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing facility in the world and represents the largest single new economic development project in Kentucky’s history. When first announced by Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, the initial “impact” numbers for the BlueOval SK Battery Park were astounding: 5,000 new jobs, an initial investment of $5.8 billion, and two four-million square feet manufacturing facilities. From a sheer physical site impact (square footage), BOSK’s battery park stands out globally in terms of its size: World’s Largest Manufacturing Facilities19 Total Facility Company Footprint Rank Name Location (Square Feet) Description 1 Volkswagen Wolfsburg, Germany 69,965,417 Auto Assembly 2 AVTOVAZ Tolyatti, Russia 64,583,462 Auto Assembly 3 Hyundai Ulsan, South Korea 54,357,747 Auto Assembly 4 Kia Hwaseong, South Korea 35,585,487 Auto Assembly 4 Kia Yancheng, China 35,585,487 Auto Assembly 5 Foxconn Longhua, China 32,292,731 Electronics 6 Kia West Point, GA 28,115,334 Auto Assembly 7 Kia Teplicka and Vahom, Slovakia 17,792,743 Auto Assembly 8 Kia Seo-gu, China 12,809,053 Auto Assembly 9 Tesla Shanghai, China 9,309,544 Auto Assembly 10 Blue Oval SK20 Hardin County, KY 8,400,000 EV Electric Batteries 11 Toyota Georgetown, KY 8,099,993 Auto Assembly 12 BlueOval City21 Stanton, TN 7,000,000 Auto Assembly/EV Batteries 13 Jaguar Lolihull, UK 5,661,816 Auto Assembly 14 Tesla Sparks, NV 5,489,594 EV Electric Batteries 15 Nissan Smyrna, TN 5,338,899 Auto Assembly From a market impact/stand-alone investment, BOSK Battery Park will be the largest EV electric battery plant in the world in terms of investment, physical size, jobs created, and manufacturing capacity. 19 Source: R List (4/7/23) as measured by facility square footage 20 Source: Update provided during BlueOval SK Battery Park town hall held on 4/4/23 21 Source: Tennessee Town & City; current construction footprint is 7 million square feet, which may ultimately grow to 10 million square feet Page | 75 Largest EV Battery Manufacturing Site Investments22 (Announced) Rank Company Location Investment (B) Jobs23 GW Hour Capacity 1 BlueOval SK Hardin County, KY $5.8 5,000 86 2 BlueOval SK24 Stanton, TN 5.6 6,000 43 3 Hyundai Bryan County, GA 5.5 8,100 35 4 Rivian Ft. Worth, TX 5.0 7,500 50 5 Rivian Covington, GA 5.0 7,500 50 6 GM Orion, MI 4.0 2,350 N/A 7 Panasonic DeSoto, KS 4.0 4,000 30 8 GM/LG Energy Lansing, MI 2.6 1,700 50 9 SK Innovation Commerce, GA 2.6 3,000 31 10 Stellantis/Samsung Kokomo, IN 2.5 1,400 33 11 GM/LG Energy Spring Hill, TN 2.3 1,300 50 12 Envision AESC Bowling Green, KY 2.0 2,000 30 13 Ford Multiple Sites (MI) 2.0 3,200 N/A 14 VinFast Chatham County, NC 2.0 7,500 N/A 15 LG Energy Holland, MI 1.7 1,200 N/A 16 LG Energy Queen Creek, AZ 1.4 TBA 11 17 Toyota Liberty, NC 3.8 2,100 N/A 18 Tesla Austin, TX 1.1 5,000 N/A Finally, as shown in the map which follows, Elizabethtown and Hardin County are centrally located when it comes to new EV battery facilities, which should generate new supply chain manufacturing site selection interest: Specific market impact/projected numbers now follow. 22 Ranked by financial investment; sites shaded in green also include a new auto assembly facility; total investment and new jobs created shown 23 Number of jobs as of the date of project announcement 24 BlueOval City is a multi-purpose manufacturing site; the BOSK battery manufacturing site employment will total 2,500 workers out of the total Page | 76 Construction Phase • Local: 720 construction workers • Travelers: 2,880 construction workers • Peak: 10/23: 3,500 construction workers on site • Additional 500 – 1000 (non-construction) technicians on-site Q3 2023 – EOY 2025 Housing Requirements: • Traveling workers: 2,800 units • Management personnel: 300 units Construction Payroll: $1.6 billion Local materials/services: $75 million Source: BlueOval SK Updated BlueOval SK Employment Confirmed FTE Workforce - BlueOval SK Battery Park 6000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5000 4000 3000 2,500 2000 1000 1000 1000 1000 4.5 0 EOY 2023 EOY 2024 EOY 2025 EOY 2026 EOY 2027 Technicians Confirmed FTE Workforce Source: BlueOval SK Page | 77 Additional BlueOval SK FTE Workforce Information – Expected Workforce25 EOY 25 confirmed workforce: 5,000 FTE • EOY 23 workforce: 1,000 FTE • EOY 24 workforce: 2,500 FTE • EOY 25 workforce: 5,000 FTE • EOY 26 workforce: 5,000 FTE • EOY 27 workforce: 5,000 FTE BOSK plans to run two 12-hour shifts (patterns to be determined) Employment/Payroll Projected Impacts The 5,000 jobs expected to operate the plant will support 8,106 total jobs in the region; this represents an employment multiplier of 1.603 • Incremental supply chain development: 1,397 jobs • Incremental household spending development: 1,619 jobs • By EOY 2026, expected direct plant payroll: $265 million (1% HC Occupational Tax: $2.65 million) • By EOY 2026, expected direct plant payroll (with fringe benefits): $363 million • 2026 – 2035 expected direct plant payroll impact: $2.65 billion26 (HC Occ. Tax: $26.5 million) • 2026 – 2035 expected direct plant payroll impact (with FB): $3.63 billion27 Source: Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. As the data was analyzed, the following issues were considered and clarified with BOSK when possible: • Will BOSK suppliers move to Hardin County? • What will remaining acreage on BOSK site be used for? • Will local governments work to accommodate growth? • Will Hardin County absorb the bulk of new workers, residents? • How many jobs will be filled by workers moving to the area? • Will the pay scale at BOSK draw workers from existing manufacturers? 25 Source: BlueOval SK 26 With no pay adjustment 27 With no pay adjustment Page | 78 • What will be needed in terms of new housing, schools, etc.? Elizabethtown - Hardin County Population Projections 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 134,242 80,000 105,503 111,862 60,000 94,704 40,000 54,272 20,000 22,542 28,531 31,982 0 2000 2010 2022 Estimated 2030 Projected Population Population Hardin County Population Elizabethtown Population Source: Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Projected Growth/Hardin County: 22,380 people – Age Breakout: • Under age 5 1,424 • Ages 5 – 14 3,128 • Ages 15 – 24 2,924 • Ages 25 – 34 2,956 • All Others 11,949 Source: Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Using Scott County’s growth as a guide, BOSK will catalyze growth in Hardin County for… • 8,811 new housing units • 3,901 new K-12 students • 75 new staffed hospital beds • 389 new hospital jobs • 380 new ambulatory care jobs Source: Dr. Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Page | 79 Finally, following are answers to several questions submitted to BOSK executives relative the expected growth in Elizabethtown and Hardin County: Issue Response Minimum education • High school/GED or Bachelors/master’s degree depending upon the attainment levels required position for BOSK positions Anticipated age breakdown • Unknown at this time as workforce has not yet been hired of workers Supplier Chain Issues • “We expect that companies and people from all parts of the globe will want to do business with BOSK. They will relocate to the region. We are not able to answer what kinds of workers will fill the positions of our suppliers” • Names of companies, site requirements, numbers of employees, etc. are unknown at this time Issue Response Community infrastructure • More temporary and long-term housing options that are affordable needs that are currently for all levels of BOSK’s workforce unavailable in Elizabethtown • “We encourage developers to create high-quality housing at various levels of affordability” • Childcare centers and mass transportation would be an enhancement for employees • BlueOval SK does not intend to provide on-site childcare • “It goes without saying that Elizabethtown will need more housing, more schools, more emergency services, more healthcare services, more healthcare facilities, more hotel capacity and grocery stores” Issue Response Community quality of life • “We recognize the wonderful park ecosystem in Elizabethtown but needs that are currently expect more public spaces will be needed” unavailable in Elizabethtown • “Large YMCA would be good for fitness and may also be a great place for childcare services” • “Our workers will be interested in a variety of restaurants and leisure opportunities (e.g., mall, movie theater, etc.)” • It would be helpful to have a meeting space for large gatherings of people (e.g., convention center)” Source for all of the above charts: BOSK Page | 80 Issue Response Korean cultural issues for • Develop community task force to develop better understanding of newcomers – how can the the Korean community/culture community assist BlueOval SK? • Provide services/support unique to the Korean culture • Develop long-term platform to foster relationships, including possible Korean sister city • BOSK is developing tools to help educate the Korean population around opportunities for families • BOSK has hired a transition coordinator to assist with basic/immediate needs (e.g., schools, drivers’ licenses, etc.) • BOSK will need for the community to “lean” into helping the new talent feel welcome Issue Response Transportation • Air cargo needs at Elizabethtown Regional Airport (EKX) are unknown at this time • Would like to see flights to/from Memphis to Louisville/Elizabethtown (“expect steady flow of 8 – 15 people”) • Would like to see regional transit system to bring workers in from outlying counties • Would also like to see regional transit system to bring workers from Louisville and Bowling Green Medical Issues • BOSK intends to hire an onsite medical services provider which will work with planned on-site clinics • BOSK intends to contract with an “Occupational Health Services” provider in the area Future BOSK Site Expansion • “BOSK’s primary focus is on delivering its initial plan. Plans for the Plans future will be determined later.” Source for all of the above charts: BOSK Following is extensive data/backup for the market projections generated by Dr. Coomes. Additional issues raised by BlueOval SK executives regarding the company’s arrival in Hardin County can be found immediately following this section. Page | 81 Economic and Fiscal Impacts of EV Battery Plant: Preliminary Estimates by Paul Coomes and Barry Kornstein Revised again July 29, 2023 (original 11-28-22) The BlueOval SK electric vehicle battery plant is under construction near Glendale, just south of Elizabethtown along Interstate 65. Ford is building two 4.2 million square feet buildings on its 1,550-acre campus. SK Innovation will install the equipment to make the batteries28. The battery plant will use less than one-half the acreage at the site, and it is too early to know how the remaining acreage will fill with suppliers and ancillary businesses29. We anticipate significant future developments related to the plant, both at the site and elsewhere in the region. To project the economic and fiscal impacts on the Elizabethtown region we have made some plausible assumptions, based on company announcements, interviews with decision-makers, economic models, and references to the one other similar site in the US – the Tesla Gigafactory (EV battery plant) outside of Reno NV, which has been operating for five years. We examine the Tesla experience to learn about likely construction and operations payrolls, as well as supplier linkages. The key assumptions used in our analysis are: 1. Construction of the battery plant will occur over three years, from 2022 through 2024. The total investment will be $5.8 billion. There will be an average of 4,500 construction jobs over the three years (Tesla Giga), with average annual pay per job of around $50,000. 2. The plant will begin battery production by the end of 2024. By the end of 2025, there will be 5,000 employees. The average annual pay for the employees will be $53,000. With fringe benefits, the average employee compensation will be $73,000. 3. The battery plant will attract several new supplier and support businesses to the site and elsewhere in Hardin County. Two South Korean companies – Advanced Nano Products and Lotte Aluminum - have already announced major investments to support battery production, total 215 new jobs. We have used these basic assumptions to project the direct and spin-off economic activity in the region. Custom regional input-output models were built for Hardin County, the three-county Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA, and the ten-county region. These models have rich information on over 500 industries, how much each industry purchases from all other industries, as well as the current local employment, pay, and output for each industry. This is the standard method used by regional economists to analyze potential multiplier effects of new developments. Main findings to date 1. Each billion dollars of construction expenditures is expected to support around 11,600 total job-years in the region. And each billion dollars of expenditures on new manufacturing equipment is expected to 28 The two Hardin County plants are to support 86 gigawatt hours per year of annual battery cell production capacity. See announcement: https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/09/27/ford- to-lead-americas-shift-to-electric-vehicles.html . 29 A November 14, 2022 Wall Street Journal story on the EV supply chain reports that currently almost all the raw materials (lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese) are found outside the US, particularly in China, Australia, Indonesia, and Africa. China dominates refining of the materials. See www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles- scarce-parts-supply-chain-11668206037 . Page | 82 support 823 total job-years in the region. The equipment impacts are much smaller than the construction impacts, since presumably the sophisticated machines used to make the batteries will be imported from other regions – this equipment is not available locally. 2. We have built customized regional input-output models to simulate the operation of the battery plant. Because there is no history of battery production in the region, we have modified the models to reflect the new industry, as well as adding the capacity associated with the two supplier plants already announced. 3. The 5,000 jobs expected to operate the plant will support 8,016 total jobs in the region. This represents an employment multiplier of 1.603. The interindustry spending linkages (supply chain) accounts for only an additional 1,397 jobs. The new household spending related to the extra payroll in the region, provides an additional 1,619 jobs. This indicates that, without the presence of more major battery plant suppliers in the region, the largest economic impact is through the new payroll caused by the plant. 4. At full operation, by 2026 we expect the direct payroll at the plant to be around $265 million, excluding fringe benefits. The one percent occupational tax recently levied for the site would therefore be worth $2.7 million that year, and grow with pay raises for workers at the plant. Assuming a three percent average annual wage increase, by 2035 the occupational tax revenue would be $3.6 million. The Tesla Battery Factory near Reno Batteries for electric vehicles are only now becoming a major US industry, and thus there is little economic evidence on which to base the BlueOval SK scenario. However, Tesla built an EV battery plant near Reno, Nevada over five years ago. State officials, in crafting tax and other incentives, hired economists to project the impacts of construction and operations, and their reports are publicly available30. They estimated that the construction phase would involve expenditures of $4.9 billion over three years, an amount and timeframe very similar to that for the BlueOval SK plant. The following table provides their projections. The average annual pay per job in the table is $56,900 for each year, whether during construction or operations. It appears that the job numbers in the first three years refer to Tesla employees and are considered operations jobs, not construction jobs. Later in the report, the analysts provide a more detailed discussion of construction and focus on the Installation expenditures (their Figure 2). There they estimate direct construction employment to be 3,800, 4,900, and 4,700 respectively, in the first three years, plus hundreds more jobs per year as further equipment is installed over the horizon. They estimate the average direct personal income per construction job to be $44,700. In 2018, the State of Nevada commissioned another economic impact study to bring up to date the developments at the site . They found that Tesla had invested $6.0 billion in plant and equipment, much more than the $4.95 billion originally projected. Employment at the Gigafactory by mid-2018 was 7,100, as compared to the 6,500 jobs originally projected. Average annual pay per job was $53,600 . The update also provides fresh estimates of the regional economic impacts. For employment in 2018, they find that the 7,100 direct jobs lead to an increase in total regional jobs of 15,300. This implies an employment multiplier of 2.167. However, it is not clear how the The IMPLAN model of Reno or the state of Nevada that the researchers used would not have any data on battery manufacturing, since there was no history of such production in the region. Presumably, the researchers used the national battery sector, which would lead to an overestimate of regional impacts (the national IMPLAN model incorporates all suppliers in the US).spinoff impacts were measured, as the authors do not explain their methods. 30 See www.leg.state.nv.us/Session/79th2017/Exhibits/Assembly/GA/AGA355F.pdf Page | 83 The IMPLAN model of Reno or the state of Nevada that the researchers used would not have any data on battery manufacturing, since there was no history of such production in the region. Presumably, the researchers used the national battery sector, which would lead to an overestimate of regional impacts (the national IMPLAN model incorporates all suppliers in the US). Projections for Tesla Gigafactory EV Battery Plant Outside Reno, Nevada Jobs Payroll Contruction Equipment Installation 2015 700 $39,817,456 $335,000,000 $592,500,000 $88,875,000 2016 1,700 $96,699,536 $345,000,000 $1,382,500,000 $207,375,000 2017 4,700 $267,345,776 $320,000,000 $1,382,500,000 $207,375,000 2018 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $592,500,000 $88,875,000 2019 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $100,000,000 $15,000,000 2020 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $250,000,000 $37,500,000 2021 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $250,000,000 $37,500,000 2022 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $500,000,000 $75,000,000 2023 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $500,000,000 $75,000,000 2024 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $500,000,000 $75,000,000 2025 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $500,000,000 $75,000,000 2026 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $650,000,000 $97,500,000 2027 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $750,000,000 $112,500,000 2028 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $1,000,000,000 $150,000,000 2029 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $0 $0 2030 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $0 $0 2031 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $0 $0 2032 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $0 $0 2033 6,500 $369,733,520 $0 $0 $0 2034 6,500 $184,866,760 $0 $0 $0 20 Year Total $6,504,465,848 $1,000,000,000 $8,950,000,000 $1,342,500,000 Source: "Economic Impact of Tesla on Washoe and Storey Counties", by Applied Economics for the Nevada Governor's Office, page 5, September 14, 2014. Construction Payroll at BlueOval SK Site We are assuming, based on the Tesla analysis, that there will be an average of 4,500 construction jobs over three years. The latest data on construction pay is shown in the next table, for both the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA and the State of Kentucky. One can see that the average pay across all construction categories is between $47,200 and $48,500. Given the May 2021 reference date for the pay data, as well as the recent labor shortages in the trades, we will assume the average pay for the BlueOval SK project to be $50,000 per year. This implies a total construction payroll of $673 million, or $224 million per year for three years31. 31 BOSK has provided us with an estimate of total construction payroll of $1.6 billion. Page | 84 Average Annual Pay in Selected Construction Occupations, May 2021 Elizabethtown- Fort Knox State of SOC Code Occupational title MSA Kentucky 47-0000 All Construction and Extraction Occupations $47,200 $48,510 47-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Worke$r6s2,810 $67,940 47-2031 Carpenters $41,850 $45,940 47-2051 Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers $40,510 $41,870 47-2061 Construction Laborers $42,850 $39,480 47-2073 Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators$51,960 $51,580 47-2111 Electricians $50,750 $53,370 47-2141 Painters, Construction and Maintenance $36,800 $39,270 47-2152 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters $55,940 $57,630 47-2211 Sheet Metal Workers $44,840 $48,730 47-4011 Construction and Building Inspectors $62,060 $53,830 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Survey, www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_21060.htm Operations Payroll at BlueOval SK The companies have announced that, once operational, there will be around 5,000 full-time employees at the battery plant. We have used the national employment matrix to make an estimate of the average pay across the various occupations. Storage battery manufacturing is classified under the industry NAICS 335900, “Other electrical equipment and component manufacturing”. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles an employment matrix that reveals the occupational makeup of employees in each industry. The top 25 occupations for this industry are shown in the next table, along with the average annual wage for each occupation. The weighted average across these occupations in 2021 was $53,04932. This is likely below the average wage for the BlueOval SK plant, but until we have better information we will use this pay. Multiplying the 5,000 operations jobs by the average pay gives us a total annual payroll of $265.2 million33. The average pay shown above does not include fringe benefits, which are expected to be very significant. For Kentucky manufacturing industries the average fringe rate is 27 percent, i.e., the ratio of employee compensation to wages and salaries paid. However, the rate is higher for manufacturing of electrical equipment (37 percent) and manufacturing of motor vehicles (28 percent). These fringe rates are very consistent over time. Using the more specific electrical equipment rate implies that total labor compensation at the BlueOval SK batter plant will be 32 Limiting the list to the top 25 occupations biases downward the weighted average, since there are several occupations with fewer workers that earn much higher wages. For example, just outside the top 25 are Industrial Engineering Technicians ($61,230) and Software Developers ($120,990). 33 BOSK provided us with an estimated breakout of workers by major occupation, as well as an hourly wage range for most of the workers. The occupational breakout is: 81% operators, 8% maintenance, 5% engineers, 6% management/supervisor. Using the mid-point of their wage rates for production workers, and BLS averages for annual salaries of engineering and management occupations, and assuming 2,000 hours per year, we get $440 million payroll per year, excluding fringe benefits. Page | 85 $363.1 million annually. With average wages of $53,049, this implies average total compensation of $72,700 per operations job. Top 25 Occupations in National Employment Matrix, 335900 Other electrical equipment and component manufacturing 2021 2021 Percent Average Occupation Employment of Industry Annual Code Occupation Title (000) Employment Wage 51-2028 Electrical, electronic, and electromechanical assemblers, except coil winders, tapers, and finishers 28.1 19.8 $39,630 51-2090 Miscellaneous assemblers and fabricators 15.0 10.6 $37,780 51-9061 Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers 5.2 3.7 $44,810 51-1011 First-line supervisors of production and operating workers 5.1 3.6 67,330 17-2112 Industrial engineers 3.6 2.5 $95,200 53-7062 Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 3.5 2.5 $34,950 41-4012 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products 3.2 2.2 $72,390 43-5071 Shipping, receiving, and inventory clerks 3.2 2.2 $38,210 51-4021 Extruding and drawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 3.2 2.3 $40,520 11-1021 General and operations managers 3.1 2.2 $115,250 51-4041 Machinists 3.1 2.2 $49,020 51-4081 Multiple machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 3.0 2.1 $40,830 17-2071 Electrical engineers 2.5 1.8 $107,890 11-3051 Industrial production managers 2.0 1.4 $117,780 17-2141 Mechanical engineers 2.0 1.4 $97,000 49-9071 Maintenance and repair workers, general 2.0 1.4 $44,920 43-4051 Customer service representatives 1.9 1.4 $39,070 17-3023 Electrical and electronic engineering technologists and technicians 1.8 1.3 $69,070 51-4072 Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 1.8 1.3 $37,530 13-1020 Buyers and purchasing agents 1.6 1.2 $72,540 13-2011 Accountants and auditors 1.5 1.0 $83,980 43-5061 Production, planning, and expediting clerks 1.5 1.1 $52,220 43-9061 Office clerks, general 1.5 1.0 $38,990 49-9041 Industrial machinery mechanics 1.5 1.1 $58,780 51-4121 Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers 1.4 1.0 $48,290 Top 25 occupations 102.3 72.3 $53,049 Total, all occupations 142.2 Source for occupational makeup of industry: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://data.bls.gov/projections/nationalMatrix?queryParams=335900&ioType=i Source for wage data: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm Page | 86 Fringe Benefits in Manufacturing, Kentucky, 2021 Compensation of Wages and employees salaries Ratio Manufacturing $19,842,591,000 $15,603,496,000 1.27 Durable goods manufacturing $12,723,443,000 $9,982,472,000 1.27 Wood product mfg $555,240,000 $440,498,000 1.26 Nonmetallic mineral product mfg $532,029,000 $424,742,000 1.25 Primary metal mfg $1,209,149,000 $975,997,000 1.24 Fabricated metal product mfg $1,614,946,000 $1,320,706,000 1.22 Machinery mfg $1,576,435,000 $1,245,518,000 1.27 Computer and electronic product mfg $426,546,000 $338,795,000 1.26 Electrical equipment, appliance, and component mfg $1,197,085,000 $874,426,000 1.37 Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, and parts mfg $4,622,970,000 $3,620,500,000 1.28 Other transportation equipment mfg $345,605,000 $265,390,000 1.30 Furniture and related product mfg $231,430,000 $189,380,000 1.22 Miscellaneous mfg $412,008,000 $286,520,000 1.44 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Modeling the Linkages Between the New Developments and Overall Regional Activity We have constructed IMPLAN models of Hardin County, the 3-county Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA, and the 10- county region of interest34. These models reveal the economic activity in each of over 500 industries, as well as how much each industry purchases from the other industries to generate its output. The models also predict how the new payroll translates in new household income and then local spending on goods and services. We use the models to predict the spinoff impacts of the battery plant construction and then the ongoing impacts of operations. There is no history of battery production in the region, and hence our default models are not capable of simulating the operation. We made several adjustments to the models to more accurately reflect the how the plant will likely impact the region. Modeling the linkages between capital expenditures and overall regional activity The construction phase involves developing the necessary infrastructure (roads, water, sewers, telecommunications, parking lots, lighting), putting up the two large buildings, and installing the manufacturing equipment. The companies have announced an investment total of $5.8 billion over three years, though detailed spending by category has not been released. Much of the infrastructure has been put in place by the state and Hardin County prior to the BlueOval SK decision. We focus here on the impact of constructing the buildings and installing the equipment35. Since we do not know the breakout of spending between buildings and equipment, we have analyzed these on a ‘per $100 million’ basis. That way, the impact estimates can be scaled up to the ultimate capital investment when more details become available. We use our IMPLAN models of the region to predict each type of impact. 34 For information about the model, see www.implan.com . 35 Barry Kornstein built the spending patterns profiles for the construction phase, and simulated the model. Page | 87 First consider the construction of the buildings. For Hardin County alone, our model predicts 825 direct construction jobs per $100 million in construction spending, and total of 1,067 jobs across all industries in the County. One can see in the table how the estimated impacts rise as the geographic reference area is widened. The indirect effects reveal the impact of interindustry spending. The induced effects reveal the impact of new household spending. One can see that the household spending impacts are greater than the interindustry impacts. This reflects the fact that construction materials must be imported into the region, and thus there are relatively few supplier-related jobs. The spending chain from construction payroll has a greater impact on the regional economy than the supply chain for materials. The models also predict the new labor income generated by the construction. For all three geographies, the estimated direct labor income is between $43 and $45 million. This indicates that labor accounts for over 40 Predicted Employment Impacts per $100 million of manufacturing construction Elizabethtown- Fort Knox 10-County Hardin County MSA Region Direct 825.2 852.4 875.6 Indirect 91.9 94.5 106.1 Induced 149.8 168.2 181.4 Total 1,066.8 1,115.0 1,163.1 Source: IMPLAN models, using 2019 economic data; simulation of sector #51 "Construction of new manufacturing structures" Predicted Labor Income Impacts per $100 million of manufacturing construction Elizabethtown- Fort Knox 10-County Hardin County MSA Region Direct $42,876,305 $43,409,141 $45,391,668 Indirect $5,179,188 $5,091,437 $5,271,638 Induced $6,076,670 $6,516,855 $6,656,621 Total $54,132,162 $55,017,434 $57,319,927 Source: IMPLAN models, using 2019 economic data; simulation of sector #51 "Construction of new manufacturing structures" Page | 88 percent of the building construction cost. The total predicted labor income, direct plus spinoff, rises from $54 million when considering Hardin County alone to $57 million when zooming out to the 10-county region. If one divides the direct labor income by direct employment, one can see that the average income per job is just under $52,000, in line with the occupational wage data we analyzed in the previous section. These estimates can be scaled up as needed to reflect the actual building construction costs. If, for example, the buildings cost $1 billion to construct, the estimates shown here can be multiplied by ten. Keep in mind that the model predictions are on an annual basis, while the construction phase will last three years. Given the new one percent occupational tax levied on the special district, we can use these estimates to get a feel for the taxes that will be generated from construction. Keeping with the $1 billion example, the direct Hardin County labor income would generate $4.3 million in occupational taxes. Most of the spin-off labor income in Hardin County would presumably be captured in Elizabethtown or one of the other municipalities in the County that levy their own occupational tax. Next, consider the impact of expenditures on equipment. Again, we simulate the impact on a per $100 million basis, which can be scaled up as more information about actual expenditures becomes available. Here the regional economic impacts are much smaller than for the construction of the buildings. This is due to lack of local suppliers of the sophisticated equipment needed for the battery plant. The model predicts only 60 total jobs for Hardin County, and 82 total jobs for the 10-county region. Similarly, the predicted labor income impacts are relatively small, only $4.2 million under the 10-county simulation. Predicted Employment Impacts per $100 million of manufacturing equipment expenditures Hardin Elizabethtown- 10-County County Fort Knox MSA Region Direct 37.9 39.7 52.6 Indirect 12.1 12.2 16.5 Induced 9.5 10.5 13.2 Total 59.5 62.4 82.3 Source: IMPLAN models, using 2019 economic data; simulation using capital expenditures (Furniture, Fixtures, Equipment) template 3359 - Other electrical equipment and component manufacturing So, for example, if capital expenditures on equipment were $1 billion, we can multiply these results by ten. For the 10-county region, the model predicts 823 new jobs and $42.1 million in new labor income. Note that this only refers to the capital expenditures, not the labor required for installation. The labor component is included in the construction section just discussed. Page | 89 Predicted Labor Income Impacts per $100 million of manufacturing equipment expenditures Hardin Elizabethtown- 10-County County Fort Knox MSA Region Direct $2,588,193 $2,500,989 $3,036,971 Indirect $587,174 $553,712 $686,823 Induced $386,991 $408,940 $484,038 Total $3,562,358 $3,463,641 $4,207,832 Source: IMPLAN models, using 2019 economic data; simulation using capital expenditures (Furniture, Fixtures, Equipment) template 3359 - Other electrical equipment and component manufacturing Modeling the linkages between plant operation and overall regional activity We turn now to modeling the impact of the battery plant operation. One of the industries in the model is sector number 333, is ‘Storage battery manufacturing’. Unfortunately, because there is no history of regional economic activity in battery manufacturing, the models are empty of data for the sector. To simulate the battery plant, we have used the national production function for that industry and introduced battery employment36. The model looks at what is required (nationally) to make storage batteries, checks that against the local capacity for each supplying industry, and predicts the regional spin-off activity37. Currently, as one might expect, the region does not supply much of what a battery plant requires. Many of the most important inputs are minerals mined and processed elsewhere, typically outside the US. However, several key suppliers have announced major investments in Hardin County. In July 2022, Lotte Aluminum Materials USA, Annual Economic Impact of 5,000 Battery Plant Jobs, 10-County Region Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 5,000.0 $394,406,081 $653,168,025 $1,828,114,564 Indirect Effect 1,397.4 $70,292,335 $119,665,315 $286,712,700 Induced Effect 1,618.8 $60,217,751 $121,232,215 $223,083,101 Total Effect 8,016.2 $524,916,167 $894,065,556 $2,337,910,364 implied multiplier 1.603 1.331 1.369 1.279 Source: modified IMPLAN model of 10-county region, using 2019 economic data. 36 Barry Kornstein performed the adjustments to the model, and provided explanations that are paraphrased here. 37 The process is actually more complicate than this. When battery manufacturing is introduced into the model, the regional inputs it uses are then not available to other industries that use those inputs. This mitigates some of the positive multiplier effects predicted by the model. Page | 90 was approved by the City of Elizabethtown for an Industrial Revenue Bond valued at $250 million38. Lotte, a South Korean firm, will make cathode aluminum to supply the EV battery plant, and expects to employ 122 people full- time. In August 2022, South Korea’s Advanced Nano Products announced a $50 million investment in a ‘carbon battery nanomaterials’ plant in Hardin County, to create 93 high-paying jobs39. We have adjusted the IMPLAN models to reflect this new supplier capacity; and also adjusted it to reflect local (as opposed to national) average pay per job in the battery industry. The largest regional spinoff impacts are in sectors like truck transportation, restaurants, building materials, and building services. The result, summarized in the table above for the case of 5,000 battery plant workers, shows an employment multiplier of 1.603, which is modest for a manufacturing industry. Note that the Indirect Effect, which captures interindustry spending linkages, is only an additional 1,397 jobs. The Induced Effect, which measures the effect of new household spending related to the extra payroll in the region, provides an additional 1,619 jobs. This indicates that, without the presence of more major battery plant suppliers in the region, the largest economic impact is through the new payroll caused by the plant. Note that IMPLAN predicts direct labor income of $394.4 million, which is slightly higher than the $363.1 million we predicted above using BLS data on manufacturing pay and fringes. This type of difference is common in such modeling exercises. For the same simulation, the top ten sectors most impacted in terms of employment are shown in the next table. Again, the main employment gains are expected in consumer-facing industries, driven by the higher household incomes due to the battery plant. Sectors like restaurants, retail, and auto repair are most linked to household, not industrial, spending. Sector Description Employment Labor Income Value Added Output 333 Storage battery manufacturing 5,000.0 $394,406,081 $653,168,025 $1,828,114,564 417 Truck transportation 188.2 $13,083,162 $15,339,813 $30,627,470 510 Limited-service restaurants 141.9 $2,609,575 $4,260,771 $10,708,800 447 Other real estate 127.8 $2,065,737 $7,120,265 $22,735,097 476 Services to buildings 118.8 $3,234,431 $4,153,723 $8,850,933 405 Retail - Building material and garden equip and supplies 114.4 $4,668,019 $8,357,187 $12,801,477 509 Full-service restaurants 110.0 $2,334,228 $3,465,061 $6,832,929 396 Wholesale - Other durable goods merchants 108.0 $5,698,342 $11,059,914 $24,613,381 411 Retail - General merchandise stores 91.6 $2,768,508 $3,947,540 $6,682,988 512 Automotive repair and maint, except car washes 75.2 $4,499,397 $5,185,577 $7,851,433 As expected, the battery plant multipliers are slightly smaller when the geographic scope is reduced. For example, the employment multiplier for the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA is 1.591, and for Hardin County alone is 1.555. 38 See www.thenewsenterprise.com/news/local/two-new-companies-coming-to-e-town-s-industrial- park/article_d035f4fa-0c91-11ed-b525-ef0e07d950d6.html 39 See www.lanereport.com/158717/2022/08/advanced-nano-products-creating-93-jobs-with-nearly-50m- investment-to-locate-in- elizabethtown/?utm_source=Faster%20Lane%20Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign= Page | 91 The primarily reflects the smaller markets to capture household spending as fewer counties are included in the analysis. We have focused on employment impacts, but the model also tracks other economic categories. Labor income includes not only wages and salaries of employees, but also fringe benefits and income to self-employed persons and/or unincorporated business owners. Output is the value of production. Value added is the difference between an industry’s Output and the cost of its intermediate inputs. That is, it is a measure of the industry’s contribution to regional GDP. Value added is the best measure of how much of Output ‘sticks’ to the regional economy. A good example is a new car dealership. If a person pays $35,000 for a new car, only two or three thousand dollars are likely captured locally, as most of the spending goes to an out-of-the-region car manufacturer. Clearly, everyone expects the battery plant to quickly draw suppliers to the site and region. As these are identified, we can add these to the model and this will yield higher and higher estimates of regional economic impact. The Tesla Gigafactory outside Reno is a good example. There are now many supplier operations located near its battery factory. Pay increases over time The Toyota/Georgetown experience suggests that average wages rise as workers gain experience, productivity improves, and the cost of living increases. The accompanying chart shows the strong growth in average wages statewide the past several years, as the job market tightened and inflation returned. One can also see the declines in average wages after the 2009-10 recession. The compound annual growth rate over the fifteen years shown is 2.8 percent. Assuming a 3.0 percent annual growth rate for the EV plant implies that total wages would grow to $356 million by 2035. The one percent occupational tax recently levied for the site would then generate $3.6 million per year. Page | 92 Average Hourly Earnings, Manufacturing Workers, Kentucky Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Survey $30.00 $28.20 $26.81 $24.64 $25.00 $21.52 $21.73 $21.72 $22.07 $21.99 $22.24 $22.67 $21.83 $20.61 $20.25 $20.63 $19.59 $20.00 $18.56 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Electricity Usage The company expects to purchase 1,900 gigawatt-hours of electricity annually to operate the plant. We do not have access to the confidential industrial electricity rate negotiated by the company, presumable with LGE/KU. The US Energy Information Agency reports that industrial electricity users in Kentucky paid around 6.5 cents per kilowatt-hour in March 202340. Presumably, such a large customer as BOSK could negotiate a lower rate than the state average. At 5.0 cents, that implies an annual electricity purchase of $95 million. Hardin County schools levy a three percent sales tax on utilities41. Under these assumptions, the school system would receive $2.85 million annually from the tax. 40 See www.eia.gov/electricity/data.php#sales 41 See rates at https://revenue.ky.gov/Business/Utility-Gross-Receipts-License-Tax/Pages/default.aspx Page | 93 Anticipated Regional Growth in Population, Housing, K-12 Students Revised Draft: June 12, 2023 The new BlueOval SK EV battery plant and other recent announcements certainly ensure regional growth in employment, population, housing, school enrollment, traffic, health care, retail sales, and a host of other economic and demographic measures. But how much growth? No one knows for sure, as there are yet so many key decisions and responses to make. Businesses have plans, but plans have a habit of changing under new conditions. Will suppliers to the battery plant move operations to Hardin County, or simply ship the materials and components in from existing facilities? How will the large remaining acreage fill up with suppliers or other manufacturing operations? Will local governments accommodate the growth in housing, or will some refuse to extend utilities and grant building permits? Will Hardin County absorb the bulk of new workers and residents, or will most jobs be filled by residents of surrounding counties? How many jobs will be filled by workers moving to Kentucky from downsized Ford (or other company’s) plants in other states? Will the pay scale at the battery plant draw workers from existing manufactures in the Elizabethtown area, creating labor shortages and new worker recruitment and training challenges? Will all county school systems add classrooms and staff, or will new workers with children opt to move to the county most ready to grow and educate? These kinds of questions cannot be answered with any precision in advance. However, we can begin to anticipate the size and character of regional growth by studying other communities that have experiences a transformational industrial development. Two examples stand out – Georgetown KY and Reno NV. We find that: 1. The Toyota plant in Georgetown began producing Camrys in 1988, beginning with about 3,000 workers. It now employs around 8,000 people. With the new Toyota plant and suppliers, Scott County began a long boom in jobs, population, and housing. 2. Scott County has been one of the fastest growing Kentucky counties over the past three decades, almost tripling in population. The strong employment growth caused many people to move to the Georgetown area. Scott County’s proximity to fast-growing Lexington also makes it an attractive location for commuters who can zip down I-75 and be in Fayette County in minutes. 3. An 8,000 growth in Scott County manufacturing jobs was accompanied by a 37,000 growth in County residents, a population growth factor of 4.6. If we were to apply that to the 5,000 new manufacturing jobs expected for Hardin County, this would lead a growth in Hardin’s population of 22,380. As we get more information about suppliers setting up operations in the region this estimate will need to be revised upwards. 4. Both the total number of workers in Scott County, as well as the number of Scott County residents working there essentially doubled over the period. The total number of people working in Scott grew by 15,900, with 8,100 of those filled by Scott County residents. Fayette supplied the most additional workers (2,700), followed by Harrison (1,000), Madison (700), and Bourbon (400). The Scott County experience suggest that counties surrounding Hardin would provide one-half of the workers induced by the growth in Hardin. However, since Hardin County has a much larger population and labor force than Scott, we believe up to three-fourths of the workers will be Hardin residents. 5. The Toyota-induced boom, beginning in 1988, led to an increase in housing units directly proportional to the increase in population. Based on the Scott County experience, the growth in Hardin County’s population would lead to 8,811 new housing units. Page | 94 6. In Scott County, there was a slight shift toward home rental as opposed to ownership during the first decade after Toyota began operations. The homeownership rate slipped from 67% to 66% from 1980 to 1990. However, over the last three decades the homeownership rate increased substantially and is now over 72%. Hardin County has a low homeownership rate, 61%, due to the large military population. With over 16,000 renter-occupied units, a very high rental vacancy rate of 8.1%, and thousands of new units in the permit stage, Hardin seems well-positioned to handle the early influx of new residents. 7. There is an indication that the Scott County housing market was over-built by 2010, with the overall vacancy rate (combined owner-occupied and renter-occupied) at 9.8%. It has since come back to its historical norm of just over 6%. Due to Scott’s small residential workforce, the Toyota plant drew workers from over 75 Kentucky counties. Many long-distance commuters stayed in RV parks and extended stay hotels. This is much less likely in Hardin County. 8. There was a tight relationship between population growth and school enrollment in Scott County. By 2020, there were 142 public school students per 1,000 Scott County residents. Applying that ratio to the projected Hardin County population growth calculated above, this suggests that the Hardin County schools might add 3,901 students. The Scott County experience suggests that the greatest growth in students comes several years after the initial surge in manufacturing jobs. Also, the growth in enrollment was very even across grade levels, suggesting an even age profile for the new households. 9. Tesla opened its lithium-ion battery plant (Gigafactory) near Reno in 2016, and has steadily increased direct employment, as have its suppliers. The facility is in the Tahoe Reno Industrial Center (TRIC), along Interstate 80, about 24 miles east of Reno. TRIC, anchored by Tesla, now has about 15,000 employees, compared to 2,000 employees a decade earlier. 10. The Gigafactory and TRIC are situated in very sparsely populated Storey County. It is very arid and has few towns, homes, or schools. 11. The workforce at the Gigafactory and TRIC are primarily commuters from Reno-Washoe County. The demographic and economic impact of the industrial park on the Reno MSA is much harder to detect than that for Georgetown and Scott County, as the Reno market is much bigger than that of Georgetown or Elizabethtown. The population of the Reno MSA was already growing steadily before the Gigafactory was developed. There was a slight acceleration of population in the 2015 to 2020 period, but it is difficult to attribute all that to the explosive growth at the industrial park. 12. Using historical ratios, the anticipated growth in Hardin County’s population will lead to a need to increase hospital capacity by 75 staffed beds, associated with an additional 389 hospital jobs. The population growth will also support an increase of 380 ambulatory care jobs, e.g., at offices of physicians. The Toyota-Scott County experience The most relevant case study in Kentucky is that of the Georgetown Toyota plant. It began producing Camrys in 1988, with about 3,000 employees. It has subsequently added production lines and now employs about 8,000 people42. Several auto-related suppliers have also located there. Scott County had a small population in the mid- 1980s and has tripled since. 42 See The Kentucky Encyclopedia, John Kleber editor, 1992, page 891; and https://pressroom.toyota.com/facility/toyota-motor-manufacturing-kentucky-tmmk/ Page | 95 Before we examine the historical data, we should recognize two primary differences between the industrial sites. First, Elizabethtown and Hardin County are much larger and more economically diversified than Georgetown and Scott County was thirty-five years ago. Part of this is sheer size, as Hardin County encompasses 628 square miles, compared to only 285 square miles in Scott County. Second, Scott County is adjacent to Fayette County, and part of the Lexington MSA, thus providing a large nearby workforce and supplier network. Hardin County is part of the three-county Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA, and therefore is more self-contained. One can see the exponential growth in manufacturing employment in Scott County beginning in the late 1980s. Employment went from around 3,000 jobs to 12,000 jobs over the next decade and remains above 10,000 today. In 1970, manufacturing accounted for 30 percent of all wage and salary jobs in Scott County; by 1998, manufacturing accounted for 51 percent of those jobs. The share is now down to 37 percent, as strong population growth induced thousands of new retail and service jobs. Manufacturing Employment in Scott County, KY 14,000 Toyota production begins 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Estimates are on a SIC basis through 2000, then on a NAICS basis. 0 Page | 96 The manufacturing jobs were filled by a mixture of existing County residents, new County residents, and commuters from surrounding counties. The average wage for Scott County manufacturing jobs is now over $77,100 per year, with another $18,500 in fringe benefits, meaning these are some of the best jobs in the state of Kentucky. Scott County has been one of the fastest growing Kentucky counties over the past four decades, almost tripling in population. The strong employment growth caused many people to move to the Georgetown area. Scott County’s proximity to fast-growing Lexington also makes it an attractive location for commuters who can zip down I-75 and be in Fayette County in minutes. Population Growth in Scott County, KY 70,000 Toyota production begins 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Estimates are on a SIC basis through 2000, then on a NAICS basis. 0 Page | 97 So, there are several contributing factors to Scott’s population growth. How have commuting patterns around Scott County changed since the late 1980s? The latest data reveals the wide range of County of Residence of Workers in commuters from around the Bluegrass region. Sixteen Kentucky Scott County KY, 2011-2015 counties each provide more than 150 workers to Scott County, and six counties supply more than 500 workers. These are all in the Scott 14,962 52.7% Bluegrass region, with the most workers supplied by adjacent Fayette 4,696 16.5% Fayette (4,700) and Harrison (1,500) counties. Madison, Bourbon, Harrison 1,531 5.4% Franklin and Clark counties each supply between 500 and 1,000 Madison 808 2.8% workers. Woodford and Jessamine counties also supply a significant number of workers to Scott County. Interstate 75 makes it a short Bourbon 683 2.4% trip, for example, for the 39 miles from Richmond to Georgetown. Franklin 645 2.3% Compare now the commuting patterns in 1990 with the most Clark 573 2.0% recent data. We see that the number of Scott County residents Woodford 456 1.6% working in Scott County of Residence of Workers in Jessamine 419 1.5% County more than doubled since 1990. Scott County KY, 1990 Census Owen 297 1.0% Only two Scott 6,907 55.4% Grant 253 0.9% surrounding Fayette 2,046 16.4% Anderson 252 0.9% counties, Fayette Harrison 545 4.4% and Harrison, Shelby 232 0.8% supplied more than Franklin 357 2.9% Jefferson 230 0.8% 500 workers to Jefferson 336 2.7% Montgomery 224 0.8% Scott. Fayette more Bourbon 285 2.3% than doubled its Nicholas 218 0.8% commuter flow to Clark 222 1.8% Pendleton 155 0.5% Scott over the Owen 215 1.7% subsequent twenty- Woodford 163 1.3% Other counties 1,747 6.2% five years, and Harrison tripled its Madison 153 1.2% supply of workers. A Montgomery 90 0.7% Total workers 28,381 100.0% similar ramp-up in Grant 88 0.7% Source: US Census Bureau, estimates for commuters is 2011-15. Jessamine 87 0.7% evident throughout www.census.gov/data/tables/2015/de the Bluegrass Estill 66 0.5% mo/metro-micro/commuting-flows- region. Madison Anderson 58 0.5% 2015.html County, for example, increased. Other counties 859 6.9% Total workers 12,477 100.0% Source: US Census Bureau https://www2.census.gov/programs- surveys/commuting/datasets/1990/worker- flow/kywrkco.txt Page | 98 Note that both the total number of workers in Scott County, as well as the number of Scott County residents working there both doubled over the period. The total number of people working in Scott grew by 15,900, with 8,100 of those filled by Scott County residents. Which counties in the region made up the difference? Fayette supplied the most additional workers (2,700), followed by Harrison (1,000), Madison (700), and Bourbon (400). The Scott County experience suggest that Hardin County will see strong population growth because of the new battery plant. Moreover, the surrounding counties will provide one-half of the workers induced by the growth in Hardin. This will also stimulate the counties in the region, causing them to grow faster than otherwise. Let us summarize the historical relationship between job and population growth in Scott County. Interestingly, over the forty years shown in the table, the growth rate for all wage and salary jobs is the same as the growth rate in manufacturing jobs (approximately 300%). This suggests a strong linkage between Toyota (plus other manufacturers) and county-wide employment in retail and service industries. Scott County Job and Population Growth Growth 1980 Growth 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 to 2020 rate Manufacturing jobs 2,616 5,089 11,401 7,994 10,579 7,963 304.4% All wage and salary jobs 7,079 11,997 24,418 22,724 28,932 21,853 308.7% Population 21,834 23,943 33,422 47,271 58,470 36,636 167.8% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jobs are on a place of work basis, not place of residence. Population estimates are as of July 1; whereas decennial census estimates area as of April 1. However, the growth in population was much slower than job growth, consistent with our discussion of regional commuting patterns above. An 8,000 growth in manufacturing jobs was accompanied by a 37,000 growth in County residents, a population growth factor of 4.6. If we were to apply that to the 5,000 new manufacturing jobs expected for Hardin County, this would lead a growth in Hardin’s population of 22,380. Housing. How did the housing market in Scott County respond to the strong population and employment growth? It turns out that the number of housing units grew at an almost identical rate as did population. Just looking at the thirty-year period from 1990 to 2020, we see that the household population grew by 33,200 (145%), while 13,600 housing units were added (149%). As a result, the average number of people per household remained unchanged. Based on the Scott County experience, the growth in Hardin County’s population would lead to 8,811 new housing units. There was slight shift toward home rental as opposed to ownership during the first decade after Toyota began operations. The homeownership rate slipped from 67% to 66% from 1980 to 1990. However, over the last three decades the homeownership rate increased substantially and is now over 72%. Page | 99 Scott County Housing Characteristics ACS 2016- 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2020 Total population 21,813 23,867 33,061 47,173 55,961 57,155 Household population 20,817 22,866 31,593 45,857 54,648 56,054 In group quarters 996 1,001 1,468 1,316 1,313 1,101 Total housing units 7,782 9,173 12,977 19,303 22,535 22,795 Occupied housing units (households) 7,268 8,501 12,110 17,408 21,186 21,371 Owner-occupied housing units 4,878 5,628 8,450 12,336 15,326 Renter-occupied housing units 2,390 2,873 3,660 5,072 5,358 Vacant units 514 672 867 1,895 1,349 1,424 Share of occupied units owner-occupied 67.1% 66.2% 69.8% 70.9% 72.3% Overall vacancy rate 6.6% 7.3% 6.7% 9.8% 6.0% 6.2% Persons per household 2.86 2.69 2.61 2.63 2.58 2.62 Median value, owner-occupied units * $44,000 $68,200 $107,900 $197,900 Median rent, renter-occupied units * $195 $270 $513 $934 Source: US Census Bureau, decennial census results, plus the American Community Survey 5-year average for 2016-2020. Beginning with the 2010 decennial census, only a few housing questions were included. Detailed housing characteristics are now only available from the ACS each year. * For decennial census years, the valuations refer to the prior year, e.g., 1980 Census refers to home values in 1979. There is also an indication that the housing market was over-built by 2010 (as it was nationally), with the overall vacancy rate (combined owner-occupied and renter-occupied) at 9.8%. It has since come back to its historical norm of just over 6%. Following our projection of Hardin County’ population in the previous section, we can apply the Scott County housing experience to project new housing units in Hardin. Adding 22,380 new residents to Hardin would require about 8,811 new housing units. Schools. We see that public school enrollment grew rapidly after Toyota arrived, but not as fast as population or jobs. Jobs are measured on a place of work basis, so it makes sense that all the regional commuters into Scott Summary of School Attendance Relative to Population and Jobs Scott County, KY Growth 1988 to 1988 1990 2000 2010 2020 2020 rate Schools: average daily attendance 3,852 4,173 5,066 7,175 8,331 4,479 116.3% County population 22,852 23,943 33,422 47,271 58,470 35,618 155.9% Wage and salary jobs in County 9,358 11,997 24,418 22,724 28,932 19,574 209.2% Students per 1,000 residents 169 174 152 152 142 -26 -15.5% Students per 1,000 waga and salary jobs 412 348 207 316 288 -124 -30.0% Sources: school attendance from Kentucky Department of Education; population and jobs from US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page | 100 County would not put pressure on the school system. The relationship is tighter with population growth. But the new residents of the County did not induce public K-12 enrollment at the pre-Toyota rate.43 Alternatively, the new residents did not have kids at the historical rate. By 2020, there were 142 public school students per 1,000 Scott County residents. Applying that ratio to the projected Hardin County population growth calculated above, this suggests that the Hardin County schools might add 3,901 students. One can see that average daily attendance (ADA) in Scott County public schools has more than doubled since Toyota began operation. ADA was 3,852 in 1988 and was 8,331 in the 2020 school year. Interestingly, the greatest growth rate in ADA was not during the first decade, but in the 2000 to 2010 decade. This aligns with County population growth rates, which were also the strongest in that second decade. Also note the recent flattening of attendance, with no growth since 2016. What was the age profile of new students? Thankfully, there are grade-level enrollment data available since the 1999-2000 school year, and these are summarized in the next chart. One can see the strong growth in 2000-2010 decade, where kindergarten attendance jumped 55 percent, grade 1 to 3 attendance jumped 42 percent, grade 4-8 attendance jumped 44 percent, and high school attendance jumped 41 percent. The evenness of the growth across grades suggests that new residents brought an even age profile of students to the County. 43 There is at least one private school in Scott County, St. John’s Catholic, K-8 with 150 students. Interestingly, the school had been closed since 1976, but came back to life just as Toyota was building their new plant. See https://stjohnschoolonline.org/st-john-school-history . Its enrollment is of course not included in the public- school attendance data shown here. Page | 101 Scott County Schools, Average Daily Attendance 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Source: Kentucky Department of Education, annual Revenue and Expenditure reports, https://education.ky.gov/districts/FinRept/Pages/Historical-Revenues-and-Expenditures.aspx 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Scott County School Attendance Source: Kentucky Department of Education,Superintendent's Annual Attendance Report (SAAR) 10,000 9,000 Grades 9 to 12 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Grades 4 to 8 4,000 3,000 2,000 Grades 1 to 3 1,000 Kindergarten 0 Page | 102 The Tesla Gigafactory in Storey County, NV (Reno MSA) experience Tesla opened its lithium-ion battery plant near Reno in 2016, and has steadily increased direct employment, as have suppliers44. The facility is in the Tahoe Reno Industrial Center (TRIC), along Interstate 80, about 24 miles east of Reno. TRIC, anchored by Tesla, now has about 15,000 employees, compared to 2,000 employees a decade earlier. How has that job growth translated into demographic and housing growth in the region? One can see in the next chart that before Tesla there almost no manufacturing jobs in Storey County. From 2015 to 2020, the County added 10,000 manufacturing jobs. Other sectors also posted strong growth, particularly transportation and warehousing, which added 1,500 jobs. Across all industries, the County gained 12,500 jobs, doubling its employment base in just five years. The average annual pay in manufacturing is now over $96,500, with fringe benefits bringing the average compensation to over $117,000, in Storey County, meaning these are some of the best paying jobs in the state of Nevada. Manufacturing Employment in Storey County, Nevada 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 44 For an overview, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_Nevada and www.nevadaappeal.com/news/2021/dec/25/gilman-reflects-10-years-tahoe-reno-industrial-cen/ . For a major recent supplier announcement, see www.wsj.com/articles/redwood-materials-plans-3-5- billion-battery-materials-plant-in-nevada-11658750400 Page | 103 Storey County is part of the Reno MSA, together with Washoe County and Carson City. The MSA has a population of over 480,000. Storey County is very arid and sparsely populated, with only 4,300 residents. So, the workforce at the Gigafactory and TRIC are primarily commuters from Reno-Washoe County. The demographic and economic impact of the industrial park on the Reno MSA is much harder to detect than that for Georgetown and Scott County. One can see that the population of the Reno MSA was already growing steadily before the Gigafactory was developed. Pop Growth, Reno MSA There was an acceleration in the 2015 to 2020 period, but it is 2005 to 2010 to 2015 to difficult to attribute all that to the explosive growth at the 2010 2015 2020 industrial park. The Reno market is much bigger than that of Georgetown or Elizabethtown. 29,420 20,532 34,791 7.4% 4.8% 7.8% However, it is clear from economic data that manufacturing was Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis the strongest growth component in the Reno MSA since 2015. The growth in manufacturing jobs in the MSA mirror that in Storey County. No other industrial sector posted a comparable employment growth rate in the MSA. Manufacturing Employment in Reno NV MSA 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Indeed, total MSA employment grew only 8.5 percent between 2015 and 2020, compared to 78.5 percent growth for manufacturing. With such high annual pay, clearly the Gigafactory and TRIC have been the growth engine for Reno the past several years. I find some evidence that the run up in manufacturing employment boosted home prices in the Reno MSA. The Federal Housing Finance Agency uses home purchase transactions to monitor the growth in prices. As one can see in the chart, Reno follows the national pattern, with the pre-bubble buildup in 2004 to 2006 followed by the Page | 104 national housing bust and recession of 2007 to 2010. However, Reno did see a relative acceleration in home prices as the Gigafactory was being built and then operating, with Reno’s prices rising faster than the national average from the second quarter of 2014 through the second quarter of 2017. It appears that once the plant was up and running that the housing marker reverted to its traditional pattern. Year-Over-Year Growth Rate, Index of Housing Prices 50% 40% 30% 20% Reno MSA 10% United States Nevada 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -10% -20% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Housing Price Index, quarterly, not seasonally adjusted, www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index-Datasets.aspx#mpo -30% Given the above, I do not believe there is a lot to learn from the Gigafactory experience regarding demographics and housing. The industrial park is in a very sparsely populated county, with little in the way of infrastructure, housing or schools. Employees at the Storey County facility commute from adjacent and very developed Reno and Washoe County. In 2020 the Washoe population is 477,000, compared to Storey’s population of only 4,200. Indeed, there are four times more people working in Storey County than there are residents. Washoe County was large enough to absorb the new employees and residents without unusual stress on its housing market. There is plenty to learn, however, from studying the suppliers that built operations next to the Gigafactory. Page | 105 Anticipated Growth in Health Care Industry How will the expected growth in Hardin County’s population translate into growth in health care facilities? Scott County KY is not a good example to study, since it is so proximate to Lexington and its major hospitals. However, one of the boomtowns we have analyzed, Meridian ID, provides some rich insights. Meridian is the fastest growing city in Idaho. It is in Ada County, which includes Boise, and is by far the most populous county in the state. One can see the exponential growth in the following chart, particularly over the last few decades. The county has added 200,000 residents in just the last twenty years. Population of Ada County, Idaho 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis 0 Page | 106 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Good data on health care employment in Ada County is available since 2001. We examine two sectors – ambulatory care facilities45 and hospitals. Between 2001 and 2021, the county population grew 62 percent, while employment at ambulatory care facilities grew 182 percent, and hospital employment grew 58 percent. The next chart summarizes the recent growth in employment in terms of jobs per thousand residents. As elsewhere, there has been a shift from inpatient to outpatient treatment, so that now there are more jobs at the ambulatory care facilities than at hospitals. Combining the two sectors, we find that the number of employees per thousand residents rose from 43 to 59 over the period shown. The overall increase in health care employment per capita is due to the aging population. The median age of county residents increased from 33.0 in 2000 to 37.8 years in 2020. Health Care Employment per 1,000 Residents, Ada County Idaho 40 35 Hospitals 30 25 Ambulatory Care 20 15 10 5 Source: Employment data from US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, for NAICS 621 and 622; population data from US Bureau of Economic Analysis. 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 The number of health care employees in Hardin County is much lower on a per capita basis than in Ada, ID. In 2021, there were 14.3 ambulatory care employees per thousand residents, and 17.4 hospital employees per thousand residents. Combining the two yields only about 32 employees per thousand residents, compared to 60 in Ada County. The relatively low numbers for Hardin County are no doubt due to its proximity to Louisville and its many large hospitals, as well as the full complement of specialists supported by the much larger population and 45 The ambulatory health care services industry, NAICS 621, includes the offices of physicians, dentists and other practitioners, outpatient care centers, diagnostic labs, and home health care services. Page | 107 the University of Louisville Medical School. This, of course, will not change with the new battery plant and associated regional growth. The next chart is included for consistency but is deceptive because BLS did not disclose employment data for the one (large) hospital owned by local government. Only the data for 2021 is useful here, as it reflects employment at Baptist Health, which acquired Hardin Memorial in 2020. The data on ambulatory care facilities is comprehensive and reveals a very steady pattern of employment as a ratio to the number of residents. One can also see the ambulatory care pullback in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID-19 related service postponements. Health Care Employment per 1,000 Residents, Hardin County KY 20 18 16 Ambulatory Care 14 12 10 8 Hospitals 6 4 Source: Employment data from US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, for NAICS 621 and 622; population data from US Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, no data were disclosed for the ond hospital owned by local 2 government (Hardin Memorial). The hospital was acquired by Baptist Health in 2020, and their employment shows up under private hospitals in 2021; hence the spike. 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 So, what does all this data suggest about future health care employment in Hardin County? First, the ambulatory care component has been quite stable historically (pre-COVID), at about 17 employees per thousand residents. This implies that the 22,380 anticipated new residents will support 380 ambulatory care jobs. Similarly, the 17.4 hospital jobs per thousand residents (in 2021) leads to an additional 389 hospital jobs in the County. Assuming an average of five employees per bed, this implies that hospital capacity will need to increase by 75 staffed beds. Page | 108 Boomtown Analysis Introduction This component of the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Transformation Project includes an examination of small cities that have gone through BOOMTOWN CITIES massive growth due primarily to major economic development in the community. • Georgetown, KY While each city is different, lessons can be learned by how each community • Meridian, ID managed the growth as it occurred (and, if they were allowed a “do-over,” • Reno, NV what would they do differently?). Luke Schmidt conducted each of the site • Round Rock, TX visits and in each case held scheduled meetings with various community leaders. The site visits included the following key components: • Community Profile Compilation • Economic Driver Analysis • Growth Management Issues Analysis The boomtown (city/county) jurisdictions are compared with Elizabethtown/Hardin County. Except for Reno, Elizabethtown at one point was larger than each of the examined communities. Each city serves as the anchor city of or lies within a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). Georgetown, Kentucky Georgetown is in Central Kentucky, just north of Lexington alongside Interstates 64 and 75. Page | 109 Georgetown has three and a half exits along I-75 and one exit on I-64. Downtown Lexington is 13 miles away. Boomtown Economic Driver Georgetown is the county seat of Scott County. The city’s economy is driven primarily by Toyota Motor Manufacturing Kentucky’s huge manufacturing complex located on the northeast side of the city. Toyota Motor Manufacturing Kentucky Georgetown Auto Assembly Plant Page | 110 Source: Google Image/USA Today Toyota by the Numbers FUTURE WORKFORCE • Toyota started operations with a “clean sheet,” meaning that the DEVELOPMENT company intentionally targeted first/new hires WITHOUT prior auto industry experience…12 of the original 2,000 workers had prior auto industry experience With today's low • Today, Toyota draws workers from 78 Kentucky counties (87% of unemployment rate, all Scott County workers live in the nine Bluegrass counties) bets are off…Toyota leader • Some of the workers that commute stay temporarily in extended is concerned that BlueOval stay hotels, RV camps, or share apartments with other Toyota SK workers may be workers recruited/come from other • Approximately 37% of the Toyota workforce lives in Scott County, existing manufacturers in with adjacent Fayette, Franklin, Harrison, and Woodford counties the region, which could be supplying a large share of workers problematic for all existing • 40% of the current Toyota workforce are females employers • Toyota has an on-site day care center for children • Two subsidiary companies employ an additional 1,100 workers Toyota Motor Manufacturing Kentucky Milestones •Plant construction begins 1986 - •Engine plant announced 1987 •Auto assembly begins with 2,000 workers (Camry) •Engine plant production begins (V4 engines) 1988 - 1991 •Plant expansion begins •Engine plant expansion announced •Expanded plant production begins (Avalon) 1992 - 1994 •Expanded engine plant production begins (V6 engines) •Continuous improvements to Camry, Avalon and Solara models 1997 - •Ancillary plant expansions 2015 •Lexus production begins (750 new jobs added) •TMMK produces 11-millionth vehicle 2016 - 2018 •$1.3 billion plant modernization announced (700 new jobs added) •9 million square foot facility •9,300 workers 2022 •550,000 vehicles produced each year Page | 111 First Lexus Rolls Off the Georgetown Assembly Line Source: Google Image/USA Today Community Profile Toyota’s impact on Georgetown and Scott County has been monumental, as the charts illustrating leading indicators show the changes over time, beginning with the change in population chart46 which follows: Population Change - Georgetown/Scott County, KY (1980 - 2020) 70,000 57,155 60,000 47,173 50,000 33,061 40,000 23,867 30,000 21,813 37,086 20,000 29,098 10,000 10,972 18,080 11,414 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Georgetown Scott County • Georgetown’s population rate of growth (1980 – 2020): + 238% • Scott County’s population rate of growth (1980 – 2020): + 162% 46 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Page | 112 City of Georgetown Payroll Tax Receipts (1985 - 2020) 18,000,000 15,614,737 16,000,000 14,000,000 8,542,504 12,000,000 8,576,027 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 2,597,473 4,000,000 1,586,553 531,079 2,000,000 0 1985 1987 1990 2000 2010 2020 Georgetown Payroll Tax Georgetown/Scott County Building Permits (Annual Cost of Construction - All Permits Excluding TMMK) 120,000,000 100,000,000 96,668,041 80,000,000 108,109,682 60,000,000 26,087,149 40,000,000 37,224,788 20,000,000 7,638,500 0 1985 1990 2000 2010 2020 Georgetown/Scott County Building Permits Source: Scott County United (above and below) Page | 113 Scott County Property Assessed Value Changes (1985 - 2000) 8,177,466,826 9,000,000,000 5,399,753,431 8,000,000,000 5,571,628,122 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 1,730,139,219 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 468,003,553 1,000,000,000 0 1985 1990 2000 2010 2020 Scott County Property Assessed Value Average weekly wages are strong in Scott County, and typically exceed the state averages, as shown in the following chart: Average Weekly Wages in Industry by Place of Work - 2020 Industry Scott County Kentucky Contract Construction $1,128.00 $1,093.00 Manufacturing 1,716.00 1,166.00 Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 1,334.00 1,083.00 Information/Communication 1,642.00 1,263.00 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 1,355.00 1,371.00 Services 775.00 698.00 Federal/State/Local Government 797.00 903.00 Professional/Science/Technical 1,429.00 1,301.00 Source: KY Stats/KY Workforce Development/KY Cabinet for Economic Development/Scott County United Fourth Quarter by NAICS Codes 2020 Toyota’s Approach to Georgetown • Upon arrival in the Georgetown community, Toyota was driven exclusively by Japanese culture: the company worked to "harmonize" with the community, not dominate it • During the past 30 years, Toyota has worked to help diversify the community's economy, to shield it from severe ups and downs of the auto industry; such cycles are not as pronounced in Georgetown as they are in Michigan • While Toyota strives to be a "good neighbor," the thought still exists in the minds of many that when it comes to community improvements, "Toyota will pay for it!" o This is not the company's approach, as it feels it is doing its part by providing millions in annual payroll (it does support various community initiatives at “appropriate” levels) Page | 114 To support future community growth, driven by the facility, Toyota agreed to be annexed by the City of Georgetown early on. General Comments Following are general comments shared by site visit meeting participants: • Georgetown Police Department is short five officers; pay is an issue; previously officers received salary and health benefits which covered full families; families are no longer covered which has made it more difficult to recruit/retain new officers; city is now looking at this issue • Georgetown needs a reset when it comes to how revenue is raised • Property tax rate increases are constrained by the 4% revenue growth caps per state law • Communities need to plan long-range for growth, revenue and expenditures • Communities that receive a large economic development project, such as Toyota, need to "plan for life" after the incentive package runs out • Community has dual occupational taxes; Scott County workers pay this tax once, while Georgetown workers’ pay the Scott County occupational tax, along with the Georgetown occupational tax • The existing school district does not include a technical training component • City and county did not keep up with planning for growth; good people were involved; however, it also requires community will • Communities should plan for the future by including capital budgeting for Quality-of-Life issues and other incremental improvements • Georgetown and Scott County are impacted by Lexington and the surrounding area; a regional economic development strategy is under development Page | 115 Jurisdiction Demographics47/Comparisons Community Factor Georgetown Elizabethtown Scott County Hardin County Population 37,730 31,931 58,252 111,607 Geography Population/Sq. Mile 2,187.8 1,155.1 202.8 177.6 Land Area/Sq. Mile 16.95 27.18 281.7 623.4 Population Demographics Age/Sex Under 5 Years 7.5% 6.4% 6.2% 6.3% Under 18 Years 25.7% 23.6% 24.6% 24.7% 65 Years and Over 10.0% 15.0% 12.7% 14.7% Female 52.1% 51.9% 50.6% 49.9% Race White 84.2% 76.9% 90.3% 80.4% African American 6.2% 12.1% 5.6% 12.4% Hispanic 6.3% 4.9% 4.6% 6.1% Housing Housing Units 10,733 13,039 23,224 47,324 Owner-Occupied 63.0% 45.6% 72.3% 61.0% Median Value/O-O $176,300 $175,400 $197,900 $157,700 Median Gross Rent $940 $765 $934 $811 Building Permits N/A N/A 591 353 Computer/Internet Use Homes with Computer 93.0% 87.0% 93.1% 91.2% Homes with Internet 88.5% 76.1% 88.0% 80.1% Education High School Graduate + 92.7% 92.2% 92.7% 91.7% Bachelor’s Degree + 29.6% 27.7% 30.4% 22.0% Transportation Mean Trav. Time Work 20.1 Min. 20.2 Min. 21.8 Min. 22.3 Min Income & Poverty Med. HH Income $66,972 $47,270 $71,750 $57,101 Per Capita Income $30,339 $30,424 $33,536 $30,779 Persons in Poverty 12.1% 13.4% 8.0% 11.2% 47 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2021 Statistics & Estimates Page | 116 Jurisdiction Governance, Operations & Miscellaneous/Comparisons Community Factor Georgetown Elizabethtown Scott County Hardin County Population48 37,730 31,931 58,252 111,607 Combined Statistical Lexington – Richmond – Louisville – Lexington – Richmond – Louisville – Area Frankfort Elizabethtown – Ft. Knox Frankfort Elizabethtown – Ft. Knox Population 749,512 1,512,785 749,512 1,512,785 U.S. Rank 71 38 71 38 Metropolitan Statistical Lexington – Fayette Elizabethtown – Lexington – Fayette Elizabethtown – Area Fort Knox Fort Knox Population 517,846 156,766 517,846 156,766 U.S. Rank 109 271 109 271 Government Governance Mayor/Council Mayor/Council County Judge/Executive County Judge/Executive Fiscal Court Fiscal Court Eight councilmembers Six councilmembers elected at-large elected at-large Seven magistrates Eight magistrates elected elected by district by district 12 Boards & 11 Boards & Commissions Commissions 10 Boards & Commissions Annual Budget49 $91.8 million $97.2 million $43.4 million50 $55.3 million Key Revenue Sources General Fund: 43% General Fund: 56% General Expenditures: Federal Grants: 19% Special Revenues: 52% Special Revenues: 14% 80% General Fund: 45% Proprietary Funds: 5% Utility Revenues: 10% Road Expenditures: 10% Jail Fund: 12% Natural Gas Rev.: 20% Jail Expenditures: 10% Misc. 5% Some projects funded Road Fund: 6% through reserves Some projects funded Sol. Waste Fund: 12% through reserves State Grants: 1% Planning/Zoning Dept. YES YES YES YES Economic Development Scott County United Elizabethtown – Hardin Scott County United (SCU) County Industrial (SCU) SCU leads community Foundation (EHCIF) SCU leads community economic development; economic development; SCU operates from the City has a business SCU operates from the Georgetown – Scott development Georgetown – Scott County Chamber of department and partially County Chamber of Commerce offices funds EHCIF for industrial Commerce offices development. Hardin County Chamber of Commerce also supports commercial growth Public Safety Public Safety – Fire 51 Georgetown Fire Dept. Elizabethtown Fire Dept. Scott County Fire Dept. # Stations 3 3 653 2154 # Personnel 59 54 51 N/A Apparatus52 6 11 18 81 48 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2020 Census 49 Proposed total expenditures FY 2022 – 2023: City of Georgetown; City of Elizabethtown; Hardin County Government 50 Proposed expenditures FY 2021 – 2022 51 Sources: various jurisdictions 52 Source: KentuckyFireTrucks.com; Includes full time and reserve vehicles 53 Includes Scott County, Stamping Ground, and Toyota departments 54 Includes career departments (Fort Knox and Radcliff) and 12 volunteer fire departments Page | 117 Community Factor Georgetown Elizabethtown Scott County Hardin County Public Safety – Police 55 Georgetown Police Elizabethtown Police Scott County Sheriff Hardin County Sheriff Dept. Dept. # Personnel 62 7656 N/A 60 # Sworn Officers 57 54 N/A 35 EMS System Georgetown – Scott Hardin County County Emergency Emergency Medical Medical Services Services # Stations 3 3 # Ambulances 9 14 # Personnel 31 N/A Funding GSCEMS is managed by HCEMS’ FY 2022 – 2023 the County and is jointly budget totals $7 million, funded by the City ($3.1 which is funded primarily million) and the County by EMS patient fees ($6 (amount N/A) million), with shortfall covered by County Health Care Hospital System Georgetown Community Baptist Health Hardin Hospital (GCH); 75-bed (BHH); 300-bed regional community hospital hospital which serves 10 which is part of the counties with 400,000 LifePointe Health System people Facility provides Facility employs 2,700 healthcare in 18 workers; 445 physicians; specialty areas and provides healthcare in 40 employs 460 workers specialty areas with over 40 satellite locations; No public funding required Facility undergoing $250 million expansion No public funding required Education Community College Bluegrass Community & Elizabethtown Technical College (BCTC) Community & Technical College (ECTC) Seven campuses including satellite Total enrollment: 7,77357 campus located in (ranks third in KY Georgetown featuring 40 system); areas of study Five campuses; 30 education/career programs Colleges/Universities Georgetown College Western KY University Elizabethtown/ Private liberal arts Fort Knox college ECTC main campus also houses WKU campus 55 Sources: various jurisdictions 56 Source: Kentucky Law Enforcement magazine 57 School Year 2020 - 2021 Page | 118 Community Factor Georgetown Elizabethtown Scott County Hardin County Local Schools Elizabethtown Scott County Schools Hardin County Schools Independent Schools (Consolidated system) 2,473 students 14,655 students 9,440 students One high school Five high schools One middle school Four high schools Six middle schools Two elementary schools Three middle schools Seven elementary Nine elementary schools schools Transportation Airport Georgetown – Scott Elizabethtown Regional Georgetown – Scott County Regional Airport Airport at Addington County Regional Airport (27K) Field (EKX) (27K) General aviation airport General aviation airport General aviation airport 5,500-foot runway 6,000-foot runway 5,500-foot runway ILS instrument approach Airport funded through Airport funded through user fees and with some Airport funded through user fees and with some support from the City user fees and some support from the City and the County support from the City and the County Transit System GTran Transit Authority of Transit Authority of Central Kentucky (TACK) Central Kentucky (TACK) Operates two routes on a deviated route system On-demand system On-demand system Miscellaneous Library System Scott County Public Hardin County Public Library Library One location One location Established as an Funded by the County, Authority with taxing plus various fees privileges which funds operations, plus various Governed by the Hardin fees County Public Library Board of Trustees Governed by the Scott County Public Library Board of Trustees YMCA None None None None Page | 119 Lessons Learned Following are comments shared by site visit meeting participants regarding “lessons learned” from the growth brought by Toyota: • Messaging to the community needed to be better • Need good communication between city leaders and citizens • 911 tax could/should be used to fund technology changes • Communities can "live off of" occupational taxes and property taxes; net profits tax should be used to fund capital improvements • Communities should institute zero-based budgeting • Capital budget/tax is needed to pay for infrastructure improvements • Set key performance goals for the community and monitor performance and communicate ongoing progress reports/results • BlueOval SK needs to quickly designate someone to serve as the company’s community leader while the plants are under construction and beyond; this person can be a well-respected Elizabethtown or Hardin County citizen…this person can serve as a bridge between the community and the companies and address issues as they arise Page | 120 Reno, Nevada Reno is in Western Nevada, along the California border. The region is a major tourist destination, with Lake Tahoe, world-class ski areas, mountain activities, along with gaming. More recently, the Reno area has become known for its new high-tech industries, including the first electric vehicle battery plant, which was opened by Tesla. The Tesla plant is located 23 miles east of downtown Reno in the Tahoe – Reno Industrial Center, an industrial park alongside I-80 which includes 30,000 acres of developable property. Tahoe – Reno Industrial Center Located in Area Circled in Red; Tesla Giga Nevada Plant is In the Center Page | 121 Boomtown Economic Driver Reno’s growing economy is part of a defined shift to reduce the historical dependence on gaming. When the economy is strong, the gaming/tourism industry is strong; however, any significant downfalls can lead to severe unemployment in the gaming industry. Reno is also experiencing a migration of residents from nearby California, who are fed up with long commutes to work, unaffordable housing, poor schools, and high taxes. As part of its economic development strategy, Reno touts its high quality of life. As such, the shift to high tech. Proximity to the Bay Area/Silicon Valley (approximate four-hour drive) and the dry high desert climate contribute to the region’s success in recruiting high tech industry. Reno has good commercial air service to other high-tech hubs, including nonstop flights to Austin, Portland, San Jose, and Seattle. Tesla Giga Nevada Plant, Storey County, NV (Phase One: 1.8 million Square Feet) Source: Google Image To more vertically integrate its business, Tesla decided to start building its own electric vehicle batteries. Tesla’s Giga Nevada plant is the company’s first and is a joint venture with Panasonic. The Reno location, which won out over several competing states, was driven by its proximity to Tesla’s existing auto assembly plant in Fremont, California, the relative low cost of land and the arid climate. Page | 122 Tesla By the Numbers TESLA NEVADA • Plant location: Tahoe – Reno Industrial Center (30,000-acre park) GIGAFACTORY • Plant footprint (Phase One): 1.8 million square feet • Year construction started: 2014 In every key measurement, • Plant opened: 2017 Tesla’s actual investment, projected number of full-time o Projected 2018 Number of Employees: 6,0005859 workers, and payroll exceeded o Projected Capital Investment: $4.95 billion projections given prior to the o Projected Annual Payroll: $353.6 million execution of the incentive agreement with the State of o Actual 2020 Number of Employees: 7,80560 Nevada. o Actual Capital Investment (2020): $5.2 billion o Actual Annual Payroll: $572.2 million Tesla has been the catalyst to recent growth across Western • Projected Economic Benefit to Nevada: $100 billion over 20 years61 Nevada. • Projected Tax Base: $1.9 billion over 20 years • Job Multiplier Number: 2.8462 With respect to the incentive agreement originally negotiated with the State of Nevada, there is no question whatsoever that Tesla has exceeded all performance measurements. Rendering – Tesla Gigafactory Nevada Fully Built Out Source: Google Image 58 Source: Nevada Office of Economic Development 2018 Economic Impact of Tesla on Washoe and Storey Counties 59 Includes both Tesla and Panasonic workers, along with a smaller number of co-located supplier workers 60 Source: Nevada Office of Economic Development Annual Report Projects with Capital Investments of $3.5 Billion 61 Source: Former Governor Brian Sandoval 62 Source: Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada Page | 123 Community Profile There is no denying that Tesla’s investment in Reno has served as a catalyst for additional growth in the region. Tesla announces Gigafactory 1; Construction completed in 2016 with Mass production of batteries begins in construction begins; construction 1.9 MM square foot facility 2017 workforce totaled nearly 8,000 over three years (source: USA Today) Population Growth Washoe County, NV 493,492 450,486 445,551 439,914 422,010 425,495 429,985 435,019 464,182 412,844 417,855 456,936 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Population 850 Tesla plant workers 3,249 Tesla plant workers 7,000 Tesla plant 7,557 Tesla plant workers (source: Electrek) (source: NV Dept. of Econ. workers (source: (source: NV Dept. of Econ. Dev.) Reno Gazette Journal) Dev. Page | 124 Population Change - Reno/Washoe County, NV (1980 - 2020) 600,000 486,492 500,000 421,407 339,486 400,000 254,667 300,000 193,623 200,000 264,175 236,728 100,000 199,177 133,850 100,756 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Reno Washoe County • Reno’s rate of population growth (1980 – 2020): 162% • Washoe County’s population growth (1980 – 2020): 151% Building Permits Issued - City of Reno (2015 - 2021) 12,000 10,000 10,101 10,513 10,323 9,608 8,000 9,060 8,000 6,000 6,848 4,000 2,000 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Building Permits Issued Page | 125 New Construction Valuation - City of Reno (2015 - 2021) (In Thousands) 1,800,000 1,696,466 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,233,023 1,000,000 1,160,152 800,000 1,015,808 600,000 873,647 725,416 400,000 200,000 455,328 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 New Construction Valuation Page | 126 Jurisdiction /Demographics63/Comparisons Community Factor Reno Elizabethtown Washoe County Hardin County Population 268,851 31,931 493,392 111,607 Geography Population (Sq. Mile) 2,426 1,155.1 74 177.6 Land Area (Sq. Mile) 111.72 27.18 6,542 623.4 Population Demographics Age/Sex Under 5 Years 5.9% 6.4% 5.4% 6.3% Under 18 Years 20.9% 23.6% 21.2% 24.7% 65 Years and Over 15.1% 15.0% 17.2% 14.7% Female 49.6% 51.9% 49.3% 49.9% Race White 60.3% 76.9% 60.9% 80.4% African American 3.2% 12.1% 2.9% 12.4% Hispanic 24.0% 4.9% 25.9% 6.1% Housing Housing Units 13,039 212,930 47,324 Owner-Occupied 47.7% 45.6% 57.9% 61.0% Median Value/O-O $361,100 $175,400 $360,500 $157,700 Median Gross Rent $1,107 $765 $1,150 $811 Building Permits N/A 5,312 353 Computer/Internet Use Homes with Computer 93.6% 87.0% 94.5% 91.2% Homes with Internet 85.4% 76.1% 87.2% 80.1% Education High School Graduate + 89.9% 92.2% 88.9% 91.7% Bachelor’s Degree + 34.5% 27.7% 31.7% 22.0% Transportation Mean Trav. Time Work 20.6 Min. 20.2 Min. 22.3 Min. 22.3 Min Income & Poverty Med. HH Income $61,860 $47,270 68,272 $57,101 Per Capita Income $36,358 $30,424 37,689 $30,779 Persons in Poverty 12.6% 13.4% 10.2% 11.2% 63 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2021 Statistics & Estimates Page | 127 Jurisdiction Governance, Operations & Miscellaneous/Comparisons Community Factor Reno Elizabethtown Washoe County Hardin County Population64 268,851 31,931 493,392 111,607 Combined Statistical Reno – Carson City – Louisville – Reno – Carson City – Louisville – Area Fernley Elizabethtown – Ft. Knox Fernley Elizabethtown – Ft. Knox Population 667,301 1,512,785 667,301 1,512,785 U.S. Rank 76 38 76 38 Metropolitan Statistical Reno Elizabethtown – Reno Elizabethtown – Area Fort Knox Fort Knox Population 497,535 156,766 497,535 156,766 U.S. Rank 114 271 114 271 Government Governance Mayor/Council Mayor/Council County Manager/ County Judge/Executive Board of Supervisors Fiscal Court Six councilmembers Six councilmembers elected by district elected at-large Five commissioners Eight magistrates elected elected by district by district 26 Boards & 11 Boards & Commissions Commissions 53 Boards & 10 Boards & Commissions Commissions Annual Budget65 $660 million $97.2 million $1 billion $55.3 million Key Revenue Sources Services Charges: 25% General Fund: 56% Property Taxes: 48% Federal Grants: 19% Other Sources: 17% Special Revenues: 14% C Tax: 36% General Fund: 45% C Tax: 15% Utility Revenues: 10% Jail Fund: 12% Property: 14% Natural Gas Rev.: 20% Various fees/funds Misc. 5% Road Fund: 6% Various Fees/Funds Some projects funded Sol. Waste Fund: 12% through reserves State Grants: 1% Planning/Zoning Dept. YES YES YES YES Economic Development Economic Development Elizabethtown – Hardin Economic Development Authority of Western County Industrial Authority of Western Nevada (EDAWN) Foundation (EHCIF) Nevada (EDAWN) $2.9 million annual City has a business $2.9 million annual budget (2021); funded development budget (2021); funded by contributions; department and partially by contributions; responsible for new funds EHCIF for industrial responsible for new business and industrial development; business and industrial development development Hardin County Chamber of Commerce also supports commercial growth Public Safety Public Safety – Fire 66 Reno Fire Dept. Elizabethtown Fire Dept. Truckee Meadows FD # Stations 14 3 1168 2169 # Personnel 297 54 N/A N/A Apparatus67 31 11 38 81 64 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2020 Census 65 Proposed total expenditures FY 2022 - 2023 66 Sources: various jurisdictions 67 Source: KentuckyFireTrucks.com; Includes full time and reserve vehicles 68 Truckee Meadows Fire Department…covers all unincorporated Washoe County (6,000 square mile area); professional department 69 Includes career departments (Fort Knox and Radcliff) and 12 volunteer fire departments Page | 128 Community Factor Reno Elizabethtown Washoe County Hardin County Public Safety – Police 70 Reno Police Dept. Elizabethtown Police Washoe County Sheriff Hardin County Sheriff Dept. # Personnel 431 7671 781 60 # Sworn Officers 339 54 365 35 Sheriff’s office also manages the county jail EMS System Regional Emergency Hardin County Medical Services Emergency Medical Authority (REMSA) Services # Stations None72 3 # Ambulances 42 ambulances/4 aircraft 14 # Personnel 478 F/T & P/T N/A Funding REMSA is the exclusive HCEMS’ FY 2022 – 2023 EMS services provider in budget totals $7 million, Washoe County; REMSA which is funded primarily provides ground and air- by EMS patient fees ($6 based services million), with shortfall throughout the region; covered by County funding is provided solely through user fees with no tax subsidies or funding; oversight provided by Washoe County Health Department Health Care 70 Sources: various jurisdictions 71 Source: Kentucky Law Enforcement magazine 72 REMSA uses system status management deployment model; ambulances are deployed to various locations throughout Washoe County based on where people are at any given time; deployment locations are closer to employment centers during the day and residential areas during evenings; this system provides faster response times Page | 129 Community Factor Reno Elizabethtown Washoe County Hardin County Hospital System Northern Nevada Baptist Health Hardin Medical Center (BHH); 300-bed regional (NNMC); 124-bed acute hospital which serves 10 care hospital (operated counties with 400,000 by Universal Health people Services); provides healthcare in 13 Facility employs 2,700 specialty areas workers; 445 physicians; provides healthcare in 40 Renown Health specialty areas with over 946-bed hospital system 40 satellite locations; with 7,200 employees; provides all major areas Facility undergoing $250 of care over five million expansion hospitals and numerous outpatient facilities No public funding required St. Mary’s Health 380-bed hospital offering 31 specialty areas of care; system has 10 provider locations and is owned by Prime Healthcare Services (Which operates 15 hospitals) Education Community College Truckee Meadows Elizabethtown Community College Community & Technical (TMCC) College (ECTC) Total enrollment: 13,000 Total enrollment: 7,77373 (ranks third in KY Five campuses; 50 system); education/career programs Five campuses; 30 education/career programs Colleges/Universities University of Western KY University Nevada/Reno Elizabethtown/ Fort Knox Total enrollment: 21,453 ECTC main campus also 18 colleges offering houses WKU campus multiple graduate degrees Local Schools Elizabethtown Washoe County Schools Hardin County Schools Independent Schools District 2,473 students Consolidated system 14,655 students One high school 64,000 students Five high schools One middle school Six middle schools Two elementary schools 17 high schools Seven elementary 17 middle schools schools 66 elementary schools 73 School Year 2020 - 2021 Page | 130 Community Factor Reno Elizabethtown Washoe County Hardin County Transportation Airport Reno – Tahoe Elizabethtown Regional International Airport Airport at Addington (RNO) Field (EKX) Commercial airport General aviation airport 11,000-foot runway 6,000-foot runway ILS instrument approach ILS instrument approach Airport is self-funded Airport funded through through its Authority user fees and some support from the City Transit System Transit Authority of Regional Transportation Transit Authority of Central Kentucky (TACK) Commission of Washoe Central Kentucky (TACK) County (RTC) On-demand system On-demand system Operates multiple fixed- route intracity and intercity routes, along with on-demand services Miscellaneous Library System Washoe County Library Hardin County Public System Library 10 locations One location Governed by the Washoe Funded by the County, County Library Board of plus various fees Trustees; Governed by the Hardin $10.3 million budget County Public Library supported by county Board of Trustees funds, plus various fees and grants YMCA YES – 3 locations None YES – 3 locations None Lessons Learned Mike Kazmierski, President & CEO of the Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada (EDAWN) provided considerable insight into growth issues, given that Reno has just gone through the initial growth phase of the Tesla plant, including: • When first announced in 2015, Tesla’s footprint was expected to cover: o $10 billion investment (when facility is fully built out) o 10 million square feet o 6,500 jobs (average wage of over $25/hour) o $100 billion economic impact over 20 years • Current structure totals 1.8 million square feet (four levels); includes Tesla and Panasonic advanced manufacturing facilities • The Tesla plant impacts a region extending 30 miles in all directions, but primarily 25 miles to the West in Reno and Washoe County (the Tahoe – Reno Industrial Center (TRIC) lies just over the Storey County line; Storey County, with the exception of TRIC, is very rural with desert, low rolling hills, and sagebrush; Storey Page | 131 County in 2010 had a population of 4,010, which grew to 4,104 in 2020, which indicates that virtually all of the growth impact was targeted towards Washoe County) • TRIC encompasses 107,000 acres and is the largest industrial park in the U.S. (30,000 acres are developable) • TRIC has one access point along I-80 and is home to several distribution centers, fulfillment centers, along with Tesla and related Tesla suppliers; employment in TRIC totals 25,000 workers • Traffic is a huge issue; although Reno has a transit system, it does not serve TRIC; Tesla contracts with a private company and charters 125 buses each day to bring workers to/from Reno • Tenants in TRIC have staggered start times to alleviate some of the traffic tie-ups • Mike Kazmierski strongly encouraged Elizabethtown and the Commonwealth of Kentucky to “get its arms around” traffic before the BlueOval SK facility opens…all options should be explored: o HOV lane on I-65 o Development of a full-service transit system o Commuter rail to bring workers in from Louisville and other surrounding areas • Tesla’s investment has led to numerous community “success” points, including: o Tesla has rebranded Reno o Attraction of advanced manufacturing is now easier o Job growth continues at the rate of 4% (10,000 new jobs per year) o Unemployment has declined from 14% to 4% o Easier to attract talent to the Reno region o Reinforced the city’s effort to attract technology clients o Increased average wages throughout the region • Tesla created a job multiplier effect of 2.84 for each direct job created Challenges • Workforce Development & Attraction o Cast a wide net – EDAWN is looking to Sacramento to find workers o Help/listen to legacy companies o Activate K-12/STEM and educate parents o Consider all industries including construction companies o Coordinate the effort across many agencies Page | 132 • Housing – Expedite & Encourage More Housing o Especially affordable housing for workforce o This is a government problem o Failure to act will cause many more problems • PR – Media o “Negatives” will be covered very well o Positives – you may need professional help o Target the entire state • Transportation o Hot spots develop quickly – major traffic congestion takes time to fix o Start planning now for transit/HOV lanes • Time & Complacency is Your Enemy o This is a long-term challenge o Key people and elected officials change o Maintain a coordinated and committed effort • Cost of Everything is Going Up o Labor shortages = pay increases for everyone o Housing shortages = rent/housing price increases o Construction costs likely to increase • Business as Usual Mentality o Many will doubt what is coming…some are slow to believe o This makes it hard to resolve issues and use resources Page | 133 • Cultural Differences – BlueOval SK and South Korea o Understand the differences o Seek to develop a welcoming environment Page | 134 Meridian, Idaho Meridian is in Southwest Idaho, just west of Boise, alongside Interstate 84. Meridian has three exits along Interstate 84. Downtown Boise is 12 miles away. Meridian is in Ada County (largest in Idaho) which also includes the county seat city of Boise (largest in Idaho). Page | 135 Meridian Economic Drivers Meridian’s super-hot economy is driven by the following: • High tech industry economic development investments by Micron Technology and Hewlett-Packard • Significant migration of people from California Micron Technology Boise Campus Source: Google Image Micron Technology is a high-tech company headquartered in nearby Boise. The company manufactures digital storage units. The company employs over 5,000 workers at its Boise campus (corporate headquarters, major manufacturing site, along with research and development). Founded in 1978, the company has grown significantly which has contributed to much of the recent growth in Meridian. Micron Technology also operates a satellite facility in Meridian. Boise HP Campus Source: Idaho Stateman Hewlett Packard (HP) also has a large manufacturing presence in the Boise/Meridian area, which employs around 2,000 workers. The real driver of growth in Meridian has been the migration of California residents relocating to the Boise/Meridian area. Idaho, one of the country’s “most-Republican” states, is primarily drawing residents from California’s more conservative areas: Orange County, Riverside County, and San Diego County, with others coming from Northern California, such as Placer County (between Sacramento and Reno). Californians are fleeing what has become a deteriorating quality of life, in terms of affordable housing, long commutes to work, crime, poor schools, etc. Conversely, Idaho’s affordable high quality of life has become a magnet for Californians. The high rate of Page | 136 migration is also driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and workers who are now working from home has produced astounding rates of growth: Net Migration Pathways to Idaho Source: Bill Lane Center for the American West/Stanford University Population Change - Ada County/Boise/Meridian (1980 - 2020) 600,000 500,000 494,567 392,365 400,000 300,904 300,000 205,775 205,671 185,787 235,684 200,000 100,000 125,738 34,919 117,635 9,596 75,092 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 Ada County Boise Meridian Population Rates of Growth (1980 – 2000): Ada County: 140.3%; Boise: 87.4%; Meridian: 1,125.8% Page | 137 The Village Shopping Center Urban Lifestyle Center with Numerous Shops, Restaurants, and a Cinema Source: Google Image The City of Meridian has two primary sources of income: the General Fund and the Enterprise Fund. Revenue sources for each fund are shown in the chart below: General Fund Enterprise Fund Property Taxes Water Services Intergovernmental Fees • Water Utility Sales • Water Connection Revenue • State Sales Tax Revenue Sharing • Water Meter Sales • State Liquor Sales Revenue Sharing • Rural Fire Agreement Sewer Services • Grant Revenues • Sewer Utility Sales Franchise Fees • Sewer Connection Revenue • Gas Services Other Revenue Services • Cable TV Services • Power/Electricity Services • Investment Interest Revenue • Trash Billing Services Revenue Licenses & Permits • Engineering Fees • Community Building Permits • Dog Licenses • Alcoholic Permit Revenue Development Impact Fees • Fire Impact Fee Revenue • Parks Impact Fee Revenue • Police Impact Fee Revenue Three indicators of growth in Meridian can be found in the chart which follows: Total General Fund, Total Enterprise Fund, and Property Tax Collections. Page | 138 General Fund, Enterprise Fund, and Property Tax Collection Trends ($) 80,000,000 70,000,000 68,000,000 60,000,000 25,000,000 33,000,000 50,000,000 19,000,000 32,000,000 48,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 33,000,000 30,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 15,000,000 19,000,000 25,000,000 0 FY 2004 FY 2008 FY 2012 FY 2016 FY 2020 Meridian General Fund Meridian Enterprise Fund Meridian Property Tax Source: City of Meridian Website; Amounts Shown are Rounded New Class A Office Building in Meridian (Located Along I-84) Source: Google Image/Ten Mile Developers General Comments A group of Meridian community leaders were asked what they liked most about living in Meridian, along with what they liked the least about living in Meridian. The chart which follows provides a summary of the group’s comments. Page | 139 Most Like About Living in Meridian Least Like About Living in Meridian • Great quality of life…you can ski and whitewater raft all • Meridian (and the entire Treasure Valley) has become a in one day; skiing is 30 minutes away heat island, with the temperature increase of 5 + degrees • Great natural areas close to the metro over the past five years • 16 city parks • City’s rate of growth is a challenge; planning should have • Family-friendly activities started sooner • Four seasons • Ada County controls ALL road development plans for the • City (and state) is business-friendly entire county – including the cities • Small businesses are the heartbeat of the city • Overwhelming number of people are moving here • Excellent schools • Lack of vision for growth • Low utility costs and reasonable tax rates • Some of the growth has occurred in non-priority areas – • Politically conservative area infrastructure is still catching up • State of Idaho has made it harder and harder for local governments/groups to plan and implement (less state funding to support growth) • Changing demographic dynamics of migrants (families vs. retirees) • Massive use of the regional Boise Trail System by residents has resulted in an increase in vandalism and graffiti Union 93 Mixed Use Development Under Construction Downtown Source: Google Image/Jackson Main Architecture • Housing prices have skyrocketed across the metro area…to maximize the value of the land, the City of Meridian has minimal height requirements for buildings proposed to be built in the downtown and commercial areas • Today, the City relies on a Comprehensive Plan to drive and implement growth • State legislature limits what cities can do to provide affordable housing as part of the overall mix • Building material costs have impacted overall costs • Rental rates have doubled • Prior to the recession, 360 single-family homes were permitted each month by the City • Now, permitting is one to one single-family vs. multi-family housing • 20% of the current available housing stock is multi-family • COVID pandemic pushed migration from California with the growth in “working from home” Page | 140 Jurisdiction /Demographics74/Comparisons Community Factor Meridian Elizabethtown Ada County Hardin County Population 125,963 31,931 511,931 111,607 Geography Population (Sq. Mile) 3,353.3 1,155.1 470.5 177.6 Land Area (Sq. Mile) 35.08 27.18 1,052.01 623.4 Population Demographics Age/Sex Under 5 Years 6.8% 6.4% 5.1% 6.3% Under 18 Years 28.2% 23.6% 28.2% 24.7% 65 Years and Over 12.4% 15.0% 15.6% 14.7% Female 50.3% 51.9% 49.7% 49.9% Race White 89.5% 76.9% 91.7% 80.4% African American 1.0% 12.1% 1.3% 12.4% Hispanic 8.0% 4.9% 9.1% 6.1% Housing Housing Units N/A 13,039 204,585 47,324 Owner-Occupied 76.8% 45.6% 70.2% 61.0% Median Value/O-O $304,500 $175,400 $298,600 $157,700 Median Gross Rent $1,200 $765 $1,062 $811 Building Permits N/A N/A 7,487 353 Computer/Internet Use Homes with Computer 96.0% 87.0% 94.7% 91.2% Homes with Internet 91.4% 76.1% 88.0% 80.1% Education High School Graduate + 96.4% 92.2% 95.3% 91.7% Bachelor’s Degree + 41.1% 27.7% 40.1% 22.0% Transportation Mean Trav. Time Work 22.6 Min. 20.2 Min. 20.9 Min. 22.3 Min Income & Poverty Med. HH Income $76,403 $47,270 $69,952 $57,101 Per Capita Income $36,614 $30,424 $37,333 $30,779 Persons in Poverty 6.5% 13.4% 7.7% 11.2% 74 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2021 Statistics & Estimates Page | 141 Jurisdiction Governance, Operations & Miscellaneous/Comparisons Community Factor Meridian Elizabethtown Ada County Hardin County Population75 117,635 31,931 494,567 111,607 Combined Statistical Boise – Mountain Home Louisville – Boise – Mountain Home Louisville – Area – Ontario Elizabethtown – Ft. Knox – Ontario Elizabethtown – Ft. Knox Population 882,138 1,512,785 882,138 1,512,785 U.S. Rank 65 38 65 38 Metropolitan Statistical Boise Elizabethtown – Boise Elizabethtown – Area Fort Knox Fort Knox Population 795,268 156,766 795,268 156,766 U.S. Rank 75 271 75 271 Government Governance Mayor/Council Mayor/Council Chief Operating Officer/ County Judge/Executive Board of Commissioners Fiscal Court Six councilmembers Six councilmembers elected at large but elected at-large Three commissioners Eight magistrates elected changing to districts in elected by district by district 2023 11 Boards & Commissions 12 Boards & 10 Boards & 7 Boards & Commissions Commissions Commissions Annual Budget76 $136 million $97.2 million $342 million $55.3 million Key Revenue Sources General Fund: 63.5% General Fund: 56% General Fund:77 86% Federal Grants: 19% (Property Special Revenues: 14% General Fund: 45% Taxes/Fees/Impact Fees) Utility Revenues: 10% Self-Supporting:78 14% Jail Fund: 12% Enterprise Fund: 36.5% Natural Gas Rev.: 20% Misc. 5% (Utility Revenues) Road Fund: 6% Some projects funded Sol. Waste Fund: 12% through reserves State Grants: 1% Planning/Zoning Dept. YES YES YES YES Economic Development Meridian Development Elizabethtown – Hardin Hardin County Planning Corporation County Industrial Commission (Responsible for Foundation (EHCIF) Downtown County planning Development) City has a development commission and staff department and partially review development City also has an funds EHCIF for industrial plans for unincorporated economic development development; parts of Hardin County department for business and provide permits development Hardin County Chamber of Commerce also supports commercial growth Public Safety Public Safety – Fire 79 Meridian Fire Dept. Elizabethtown Fire Dept. # Stations 6 3 2181 # Personnel 125 54 N/A Apparatus80 N/A 11 81 75 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2020 Census 76 Proposed total expenditures FY 2022 - 2023 77 Supported by various taxes, including property taxes, special levy and special districts 78 Supported by various fees such as special revenue and business taxes/fees 79 Sources: various jurisdictions 80 Source: KentuckyFireTrucks.com; Includes full time and reserve vehicles 81 Includes career departments (Fort Knox and Radcliff) and 12 volunteer fire departments Page | 142 Community Factor Meridian Elizabethtown Ada County Hardin County Public Safety – Police 82 Meridian Police Elizabethtown Police Ada County Sheriff Hardin County Sheriff Department Dept. # Personnel 43 2883 800 60 # Sworn Officers 143 54 400 35 Department also manages the Ada County Jail EMS System Ada County Paramedics Hardin County Emergency Medical Services # Stations 14 3 # Ambulances 28 14 # Personnel 147 N/A Funding ACP is a property-based HCEMS’ FY 2022 – 2023 ambulance taxing district budget totals $7 million, which provides 30% of which is funded primarily the annual operating by EMS patient fees ($6 budget, with the balance million), with shortfall made up with ambulance covered by County fees and annual membership called Vital Ride ACP covers all of Ada County and works in partnership with five area fire departments (including Meridian Fire) Health Care Hospital System St. Luke’s Meridian Baptist Health Hardin St. Alphonsus (Part of the St. Luke’s (BHH); 300-bed regional (Part of the Trinity Health System; eight hospital which serves 10 Health System; 381 beds; hospitals with 1,008 beds counties with 400,000 the only Level II Trauma and other outpatient people Center in the region with facilities) Meridian 25 specialty areas of hospital statistics: Facility employs 2,700 treatment); 252 workers; 445 physicians; locations in Idaho and Opened: 2001 provides healthcare in 40 Oregon # Beds: 174 specialty areas with over 2022 Admissions: 9,048 40 satellite locations; St. Luke’s Boise 2022 ER Visits: 54,721 (Part of the St. Luke’s 2022 Outpatient Visits: Facility undergoing $250 Health System; eight 199,309 million expansion hospitals with 1,008 beds 2022 Surgeries: 8,771 and other outpatient 2022 Newborns: 873 No public funding facilities) Boise hospital required statistics: No public funding required # Beds: 437 All major specialties No public funding required 82 Sources: various jurisdictions 83 Source: Kentucky Law Enforcement magazine Page | 143 Community Factor Meridian Elizabethtown Ada County Hardin County Education Community College Elizabethtown College of Western Community & Technical Idaho College (ECTC) One of two Total enrollment: 7,77384 comprehensive (ranks third in KY community colleges system); systems in Idaho; serves Ada and Canyon counties Five campuses; 30 education/career Total enrollment: 20,561 programs Four campuses in nearby Boise and Nampa; six schools with 27 majors Colleges/Universities Western KY University Following institutions Elizabethtown/ have campuses in nearby Fort Knox Boise: ECTC main campus also Boise State University houses WKU campus Enrollment: 24,103 100 graduate programs Idaho State University and the University of Idaho maintain satellite campuses in Boise Local Schools West Ada School District Elizabethtown Boise School District Hardin County Schools Independent Schools Serves West Ada County, 26,000 students including Meridian, West 2,473 students 14,655 students Boise and Eagle (largest Four high schools school district in Idaho) One high school Eight middle schools Five high schools One middle school 32 elementary schools Six middle schools 36,140 students Two elementary schools Seven elementary Kuna Joint Sch. Dist. 3 schools 11 high schools 11 middle schools Melba Sch. Dist. 136 34 elementary schools West Ada School Dist. 36,140 students 11 high schools 11 middle schools 34 elementary schools Transportation Airport Elizabethtown Regional Boise Air Terminal (BOI) Airport at Addington Field (EKX) Commercial airport in nearby Boise; 10,000- General aviation airport foot runway; ILS 6,000-foot runway instrument approach ILS instrument approach Operated by the city Airport funded through user fees and some support from the City 84 School Year 2020 - 2021 Page | 144 Community Factor Meridian Elizabethtown Ada County Hardin County Transit System Valley Regional Transit Transit Authority of Valley Regional Transit Transit Authority of Central Kentucky (TACK) Central Kentucky (TACK) Regional mass transit Regional mass transit fixed route/on-demand On-demand system fixed route/on-demand On-demand system system which serves the system which serves the cities of Boise, Meridian, cities of Boise, Meridian, Nampa and Ada County Nampa and Ada County Miscellaneous Library System Meridian Library District Hardin County Public Library Four locations One location Funded by property taxes administered by Funded by the County, the Meridian Free Library plus various fees District (approved by the voters in 1974) Governed by the Hardin County Public Library Annual budget: $6.9 Board of Trustees million YMCA Treasure Valley YMCA None Treasure Valley YMCA None Six locations with two in Six locations with two in Meridian Meridian Lessons Learned • As the I-84 freeway was expanded across the Valley, including through and around Meridian, frontage roads should have been added on both sides to accommodate growth along the interstate corridor • Development of the Eagle Road commercial corridor was poorly managed • City (and residents) need to have a realistic vision and understanding of what is coming (e.g., better messaging and communication) • Invest in infrastructure early • Invest in amenities such as parks and libraries • An interurban rail line should have been developed to connect the cities in the Valley to work, education, and medical facilities to reduce traffic • Understand and manage the competition which will arise when you have two primary retail areas (downtown and Meridian’s village shopping areas) Page | 145 Round Rock, Texas Round Rock is in Central Texas, just north of Austin alongside Interstate 35. Round Rock has eight exits along Interstate 35. Downtown Austin is 19 miles away. Page | 146 Round Rock is a fast-growing city located in Central Texas. Round Rock is located 19 miles north of the capital city of Austin. For years, Round Rock, located in Williamson County (Austin is in Travis County) served as a small bedroom community to Austin. Then, in 1984, everything began to change. Dell Technologies started growing and moving its operations from Austin to Round Rock. Corporate headquarters moved from Austin to Round Rock in 1994. What started out as a vision on the part of first-year University of Texas student Michael Dell evolved into one of the world’s largest technology companies. Michael Dell dropped out of college after his freshman year to focus full time on his vision for computing. Michael Dell’s initial personal investment of $1,000 to start PCs Unlimited in 1984 has grown to today’s Dell Technologies, with 2022 annual revenue of $101 billion and a market capitalization of $33.69 billion. Dell Technologies today operates on a global scale and is one of the largest providers of personal computers in the world. Today, Dell Technologies’ corporate offices, key manufacturing and sales centers are in Round Rock. The impact on the city has been enormous. The company today employs 16,000 workers at its various Round Rock facilities. Round Rock Population Change (1970 - 2020) 140000 120000 99887 100000 61636 119468 80000 30923 60000 40000 12740 20000 2811 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Round Rock Dell begins its transition from Austin to Round La Frontera commercial center breaks ground in Rock in 1984 1998 Dell moves its corporate headquarters from Austin to Round Rock in 1994. Page | 147 Dell Technologies Corporate Headquarters – Round Rock Source: Google Image Additional Dell Technologies Facility – Round Rock Source: KVUE-TV Over the years, Dell’s growth in Round Rock was exponential. As the company grew, so did the city and the need for services. By 1988, significant growth was underway, and the city needed to find a funding solution that would help to pay for investments in infrastructure. By leveraging Dell’s direct sales to customers function – based in Round Rock – the city asked voters in 1988 to agree to implementing a half cent sales tax. By doing this, the city would receive tax proceeds from every Dell sales transaction. To sell this to the voters, the city agreed to offset the new sales tax with a corresponding decrease in the property tax rate. Voters approved the new tax, and the city found its funding source. At present, the combined sales tax is 8.25%, and is broken down as follows: Page | 148 Round Rock Combined Sales Tax: 8.25% 1 1 6.25 Texas Round Rock Williamson County City of Round Rock Annual Sales Tax Revenue (2014 - 2023) $48,937,000 50000000 $37,631,725 45000000 40000000 $24,330,110 35000000 30000000 25000000 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 Annual Sales Tax Revenue 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 The city’s share of the sales tax is further divided as follows: 0.50 of the proceeds goes towards a reduction in the city’s property tax, while the remaining 0.50 is dedicated towards transportation and economic development projects. Page | 149 Early on, the city also decided that as Dell continued to grow it did not want to become a Dell “company town,” and it decided to begin efforts to diversify its economy. As such, the city began to focus on commercial development, hotels and conventions. La Frontera Apartment Complex Austin Marriott North Hotel (located in Round Rock) Source: Google Image Source: Google Image One such development is La Frontera, which is located on the city’s southside. This complex includes hotels, apartments, shopping and restaurants (over one million square feet of development). To manage the growth, the city has continuously annexed land to expand the city’s boundaries. Under Texas law, cities are allowed to annex land and can also serve unincorporated areas with water and sewer and annex the unincorporated land later. Round Rock also has an impact fee system, which requires payment by developers for connecting to the city’s utility system. The rationale behind the impact fee system is that existing citizens should not have to pay for utility expansion due to growth and development – the developers (and their customers) should bear this cost. Round Rock has 10 Municipal Utility Districts (also known as MUD’s). MUDs are typically started by developers as land is developed. Muds function as singular utility districts which can charge fees by users. MUDs enable developers to recoup costs and are typically sold to or merged with the city’s utility district upon buildout. Transportation is another huge issue in Round Rock, due to all the growth. Over time, Interstate 35 has been expanded through the city. A new loop was built along the southside of the city, tying in with the expressway system around the north side of Austin. Texas’ expressway systems also include frontage roads along both sides of the expressway, which fosters commercial growth and ease of access on and off I-35. Interchange I-35 at Loop 1 (Built During Road Expansion) Source: Google Image/Wikipedia Round Rock’s development is led by the Round Rock Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber aggressively recruits new business and industry which conform to the city’s strategic plan and vision. The Chamber also manages Momentum – the Chamber’s Five-Year Economic Development strategy. Page | 150 During the past 10 years, through the Momentum strategy and platform, the Chamber has achieved the following milestones: Momentum – 10-Year Milestones/Achievements • 75 total project wins • 6,644 new direct jobs • 10,371 direct and indirect new jobs • $1.8 billion direct capital investment • $2.6 billion total investment • $3.4 million in incremental sales tax • $96.9 million in incremental property tax • $100 + million in new revenue to Round Rock Independent School District, the town of Wilco and the City of Round Rock The next new development is The District, which is located on the southside of Round Rock, adjacent to booming North Austin. The District will include luxury apartments, Class A office space, and retail components. Rendering: The District Source: Austin Business Journal/Google Image Downtown Round Rock is also growing. In 1980, the city’s population was just over 12,000 people. Round Rock was primarily a bedroom community to nearby Austin. As such, the city’s downtown area was small. As the growth related to Dell and subsequent commercial development occurred, it was mostly on the city’s perimeter and along I-35. Page | 151 The city has been intentional about preserving’s the downtown area’s older buildings (many of which feature an attractive limestone façade, which is unique to Central Texas communities). Downtown serves as the city’s government center (nearby Georgetown is the county seat of Williamson County). City Hall has been expanded as the city has grown to include an attractive plaza area which is used for outdoor concerts. A parking garage has been built behind City Hall. Many of the older buildings along Main Street have been converted into bars, coffee shops, and restaurants, thereby making Downtown Round Rock an entertainment destination. The city also just opened a new and expanded public library downtown. Round Rock Civic Plaza (Above) Downtown Round Rock Sources: Google Image New Round Rock Library Source: Google Image Page | 152 Jurisdiction /Demographics85/Comparisons Community Factor Round Rock Elizabethtown Williamson County Hardin County Population 123,676 31,931 643,026 111,607 Geography Population (Sq. Mile) 3,174.0 1,155.1 546.6 177.6 Land Area (Sq. Mile) 37.64 27.18 1,115.83 623.4 Population Demographics Age/Sex Under 5 Years 5.9% 6.4% 5.9% 6.3% Under 18 Years 25.9% 23.6% 24.5% 24.7% 65 Years and Over 9.1% 15.0% 12.6% 14.7% Female 50.7% 51.9% 50.3% 49.9% Race White 71.2% 76.9% 79.0% 80.4% African American 9.6% 12.1% 7.7% 12.4% Hispanic 28.7% 4.9% 25.4% 6.1% Housing Housing Units N/A 13,039 249,308 47,324 Owner-Occupied 58.6% 45.6% 68.2% 61.0% Median Value/O-O $259,400 $175,400 $282,700 $157,700 Median Gross Rent $1,345 $765 $1,368 $811 Building Permits N/A N/A 15,036 353 Computer/Internet Use Homes with Computer 98.1% 87.0% 97.3% 91.2% Homes with Internet 95.4% 76.1% 94.1% 80.1% Education High School Graduate + 93.0% 92.2% 93.3% 91.7% Bachelor’s Degree + 41.3% 27.7% 41.9% 22.0% Transportation Mean Trav. Time Work 25.3 Min. 20.2 Min. 28.0 Min. 22.3 Min Income & Poverty Med. HH Income $86,121 $47,270 $90,834 $57,101 Per Capita Income $37,131 $30,424 $38,494 $30,779 Persons in Poverty 6.2% 13.4% 5.6% 11.2% 85 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2021 Statistics & Estimates Page | 153 Jurisdiction Governance, Operations & Miscellaneous/Comparisons Community Factor Round Rock Elizabethtown Williamson County Hardin County Population86 123,676 31,931 643,026 111,607 Combined Statistical Louisville – Louisville – Area Elizabethtown – Ft. Knox Elizabethtown – Ft. Knox Population 1,512,785 1,512,785 U.S. Rank 38 38 Metropolitan Statistical Austin – Round Rock – Elizabethtown – Austin – Round Rock – Elizabethtown – Area Georgetown Fort Knox Georgetown Fort Knox Population 2,352,426 156,766 2,352,426 156,766 U.S. Rank 28 271 28 271 Government Governance Council/Manager Mayor/Council County Judge/ County Judge/Executive Commissioners Court Fiscal Court Six councilmembers Six councilmembers elected by district elected at-large Four commissioners Eight magistrates elected elected by district by district Nine Boards & 11 Boards & Commissions Commissions Six Boards & Committees 10 Boards & Commissions Annual Budget87 $555.5 million $97.2 million $453.9 million $55.3 million Key Revenue Sources Property Tax: 13% General Fund: 56% General Fund: 53% Federal Grants: 19% Sales Tax: 20% Special Revenues: 14% Road & Bridge Fund: 10% General Fund: 45% Hotel Occupancy: 2% Utility Revenues: 10% Debt Service Fund: 34% Jail Fund: 12% Utility Fees: 11% Natural Gas Rev.: 20% Misc. 5% Contracts: 13% Road Fund: 6% Self-Funded Proj.: 30% Some projects funded Sol. Waste Fund: 12% through reserves State Grants: 1% Planning/Zoning Dept. YES YES YES Economic Development Round Rock Elizabethtown – Hardin Williamson County Hardin County Planning Chamber of Commerce County Industrial Economic Development Commission Foundation (EHCIF) Partnership The Chamber serves as County planning the lead agency for City has a development Self-funded collaboration commission and staff business and industrial department and partially group of around 15 review development development funds EHCIF for industrial communities in the plans for unincorporated development; county, including Round parts of Hardin County Rock…focus is primarily and provide permits Hardin County Chamber on partnering where able of Commerce also to develop new business supports commercial opportunities growth Public Safety Public Safety – Fire 88 Round Rock Fire Dept. Elizabethtown Fire Dept. There are numerous municipal fire # Stations 9 3 departments located 2191 # Personnel 13090 54 throughout Williamson N/A Apparatus89 15 11 County 81 86 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2020 Census 87 Proposed total expenditures FY 2022 - 2023 88 Sources: various jurisdictions 89 Source: KentuckyFireTrucks.com; Includes full time and reserve vehicles 90 Source: Round Rock International Association of Fire Fighters 91 Includes career departments (Fort Knox and Radcliff) and 12 volunteer fire departments Page | 154 Community Factor Round Rock Elizabethtown Williamson County Hardin County Public Safety – Police 92 Round Rock Police Dept. Elizabethtown Police Williamson County Hardin County Sheriff Dept. Sheriff # Personnel N/A 2894 N/A 60 # Sworn Officers 14593 54 N/A 35 EMS System Williamson County Hardin County Emergency Medical Emergency Medical Services Services # Stations 18 3 # Ambulances 17 14 # Personnel 145 N/A Funding EMS service is funded by HCEMS’ FY 2022 – 2023 user fees and funds budget totals $7 million, provided by the county which is funded primarily raised by taxes by EMS patient fees ($6 million), with shortfall covered by County Health Care Hospital System St. David’s Round Rock Baptist Health Hardin Baylor Scott & White Medical Center (BHH); 300-bed regional Medical Center 175-bed hospital with hospital which serves 10 Taylor Level II Trauma Center; counties with 400,000 Part of 52-hospital facility offers various people system stretching from services including Dallas/Ft. Worth to San Williamson County’s first Facility employs 2,700 Antonio; 25-bed hospital specialized cardiac workers; 445 physicians; facility provides healthcare in 40 Cedar Park Regional specialty areas with over Medical Center Baylor Scott & White 40 satellite locations; 126-bed hospital; 16 Medical Center primary specialties Round Rock Facility undergoing $250 Part of 52-hospital million expansion system stretching from St. David’s Georgetown Dallas/Ft. Worth to San No public funding Hospital Antonio; 101 beds and required 114-bed facility with 40 primary care areas Level IV Trauma Center; Ascension Seton No public funding Williamson required for any of the 181-bed hospital; part of above hospitals 139-hospital system in 19 states; Level II Trauma Center; 16 primary specialty areas; No public funding required for any of the above hospitals 92 Sources: various jurisdictions 93 Source: Round Rock Police Officers Association 94 Source: Kentucky Law Enforcement magazine Page | 155 Community Factor Round Rock Elizabethtown Williamson County Hardin County Education Community College Austin Community Elizabethtown College Community & Technical College (ECTC) Total enrollment: 70,000 across 11 campuses Total enrollment: 7,77395 including one in Round (ranks third in KY Rock; 100 degrees over system); 11 primary study areas Five campuses; 30 education/career programs Colleges/Universities Texas State University Western KY University Round Rock Elizabethtown/ Fort Knox Branch of Texas State University (located 48 ECTC main campus also miles from the main houses WKU campus campus in San Marcos); TSURR is designed for students taking upper- level courses, transitioning from community college and offers bachelors, masters, and doctoral degrees in 13 primary study areas Local Schools Round Rock Elizabethtown There are 16 Hardin County Schools Independent Independent Schools independent school School District districts which serve 2,473 students parts of Williamson 14,655 students 46,989 students County, including the One high school Round Rock Independent Five high schools Seven high schools One middle school School District Six middle schools 11 middle schools Two elementary schools Seven elementary 35 elementary schools schools Transportation Airport Elizabethtown Regional Airport at Addington Field (EKX) General aviation airport 6,000-foot runway ILS instrument approach Airport funded through user fees and some support from the City Transit System Capital Metro Transit Authority of Transit Authority of Central Kentucky (TACK) Central Kentucky (TACK) Fixed route system serving Austin metro On-demand system On-demand system area including Round Rock 95 School Year 2020 - 2021 Page | 156 Community Factor Round Rock Elizabethtown Williamson County Hardin County Miscellaneous Library System Round Rock Public There are nine separate Hardin County Public Library libraries in Williamson Library County, including one in One location; new Round Rock One location building in downtown Round Rock which also Funded by the County, includes a new 300-car plus various fees parking garage; library averages 30,000 monthly Governed by the Hardin visits (2019) and in 2019 County Public Library had an annual budget of Board of Trustees $2.9 million; library is operated by the city YMCA YES None YES None Lessons Learned • Fully understand how public/private partnerships work (or should work) • Maintaining a high quality of life is paramount • Obtain transportation rights of way sooner rather than later • During depressed times, build more infrastructure to take advantage of lower costs (downtown Round Rock Civic Plaza parking garage was built during a “down” market and cost $1.5 million) • Companies and site selectors should see Round Rock as a great city to live in and work in Page | 157 Page | 158 Key Stakeholder Engagement – Pre/Post-Project SWOT Analysis & Surveys/Interviews A major component of the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Transformation Project revolves around key stakeholder research. Simply put, as BlueOval SK continues to build out its site in Hardin County and fully staff up for its 2025 facility opening, it is important to know and understand how metro community leaders perceive the value of the project and its impact on the region. Research (using both online surveys and in-person interviews/in- person video interviews) focused on two primary groups: • Elizabethtown/Hardin County Community Leadership Group • Outer County Community Leadership Groups In every instance, all survey responses were aggregated. No individual responses are shown in the data which follows. Pre/Post-Project Community Leader SWOT Analysis To ascertain community leader positions on the “front end,” of this project regarding the new battery park, a pre- project SWOT analysis was conducted in August 2022, which identified Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. Later, and as part of the online survey, community leaders were also asked to identify SWOT matrixes facing the community. Both the Pre and Post SWOT Analysis charts can be found on the following two pages. Page | 159 Pre-Project SWOT Elizabethtown/Hardin County Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats August 16, 2022 Strengths Weaknesses •Existing solid infrastructure will support BlueOval SK •Lack of regional transit •Ongoing Baptist Health Hardin expansion is a real plus •County/state roads in Glendale area - can they handle for community heavy truck traffic? •ECTC/University Center (under development) - great •Is infrastructure in place for massive growth in connection for transitioning military workers and Elizabethtown? trailing spouses •Is City prepared to annex adjacent areas to control its destiny? •Is City prepared to amend its building height moratorium to accomodate denser growth? Opportunities Threats •Great existing political capital on state/federal levels •Lack of unified government may lead to poor decision •Housing - will require thoughtful development making across jurisdictions •Competitively position Elizabethtown for R & D •Segmentation of urban and rural traditions development opportunities •Level of sophistication of decision making by some in •BlueOval SK is the accelerator government •BMW in Spartanburg has a partnership with local •Workforce availability community college with an R & D component •Existing plants will be competing with BlueOval SK for •Fort Knox energy independence/proposed solar farms the same workers •Opporunity for NEW community communications and •Parts of the MSA still have NO access to the Internet branding •Need for an understanding of the Korean culture Post-Online Community Leader Survey SWOT Analysis Elizabethtown/Hardin County Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats April 1, 2023 Strengths Weaknesses •Location, regional medical center, educational opportunities •Lack of sewer in outlying areas •Balanced economy •Unprepared for labor, housing, and infrastructure needs for •Good people/good leadership what's coming •City is poised to lead growth for BOSK with southern •Workforce availability to fill thousands of new jobs annexation; police and fire can handle annexation •Not going big •Lack of unified government Opportunities Threats •Develop high tech research center with ECTC and battery •Current state of volunteer fire departments/EMS industry •Lack of new industrial land to recruit battery supply chain •BOSK will catalyze growth of new retail and restaurants •Lack of vision from community leaders •Recruit EV battery plant supply chain •Residents/community leaders who are resistant to change •Annex south and expand services to accomodate growth •Residential growth that does not align with tax structure to •Expand educational opportunities, medical facilities for fund infrastructure expansion premium job growth •BOSK will threaten existing industry workforce •Transform community into advanced manufacturing •Other communities becoming more progressive and powerhouse gaining new opportunities ahead of Elizabethtown Page | 161 Key Community Leader Surveys & Interviews A total of 141 in-depth online surveys were sent out to Hardin County leaders. Ninety-one leaders responded, providing for a 65% response rate – a very good response rate for a survey of this type. Additionally, 34 community leaders participated in confidential one-on-one interviews. Key Community Leader Online Survey Summary Overall, most all the 91 respondents to the online survey were in lockstep on key community issues and perceptions. The online survey covered the following areas: • Quality of Life Issues • Overall Growth Issues • Economic Development Issues • BlueOval SK Battery Park Issues • Future Industrial Development/New Jobs Issues • The Next Big Project Issue • Fort Knox Following is a summary of the key majority viewpoints: Quality of Life Issues • People like living in Hardin County and appreciate the collaboration, collegiality, support and comradery that exists between government, education, healthcare, and business leaders • People appreciate the low crime rate and the fact that the community is growing and is a good place to raise a family • On the other end of the spectrum, people would like more “premium” restaurants, department stores and better retail opportunities • Concern was expressed about the new leadership team in Hardin County Government and their lack of preparedness for the growth and influx that is coming • Concern was also expressed about the lack of convention/meeting space, public transit and cultural opportunities • Strong majorities expressed satisfaction when it comes to education providers (all levels) in the community, along with the quality of healthcare providers and public safety agencies, and park systems • While majorities expressed satisfaction with retail opportunities in Downtown Elizabethtown and the North Dixie retail corridor (excluding Towne Mall), significant dissatisfaction was expressed about the current status of Towne Mall and retail opportunities in Radcliff and Vine Grove • Crowne Point Theater and the Elizabethtown Sports Park scored very high marks in terms of satisfaction of opportunities provided to citizens Overall Growth Issues • Strong majorities supported and/or recognized the following when it comes to future growth: o Managing growth both in the City of Elizabethtown and beyond with smart growth strategies o Land values will increase resulting in more dense housing developments o The community should begin planning for new utility corridors to accommodate future growth o The community should begin planning for extending professional (full-time) firefighting protection services to outlying areas near the BOSK plant o The City of Elizabethtown should consider developing a strategic annexation plan, recognizing that thousands of people already live just outside the city limits, work in and use/enjoy city services/amenities Kentucky’s 10 Largest Cities (2020 Census): 1. Louisville 633,045 2. Lexington 322,570 3. Bowling Green 72,294 4. Owensboro 60,183 5. Covington 40,961 6. Georgetown 37,086 7. Richmond 34,585 8. Florence 31,946 9. Elizabethtown 31,394 10. Hopkinsville 31,180 2021 Population Statistics Elizabethtown Estimated Population: 31,931 Ninth largest in Kentucky Zip Code Estimated Population: 52,279 Fourth largest in Kentucky Page | 163 Economic Development Issues • Strong majorities supported and/or recognized the following when it comes to economic development: o Elizabethtown/Hardin County will be one of the five growth centers/economic powerhouses of Kentucky going forward o It is important to maintain growth and development of new jobs to retain local talent and recruit new talent to the community going forward o New regional transit system to efficiently move people and workers around Hardin County o New community branding is needed for current and future economic development/market promotion o Appropriately planned solar energy projects should become part of the community’s power mix • One area of concern: majority of respondents to not believe that community leaders are aligned properly to implement the existing growth, and plan for and manage future growth BlueOval SK Issues • Strong majorities agreed that BOSK will become a key and valued component of the community, support the active recruitment of BOSK supplier plants to the community, and that the community should formally engage with BOSK to support future expansion of the battery park Future Industrial Development/New Jobs Strong majorities agreed on the following: • Support Elizabethtown/Hardin County Industrial Foundation efforts to secure new industrial development land to compete with regional communities and create new jobs • Take steps in the foreseeable future to secure land for the next “big project,” which might require a new mega site Key Community Leader In-Person Interviews/Key Community Leader Video Interviews In addition to the extensive online survey, an additional group of community leaders were invited to participate in follow-up interviews – either in one-on-one in-person interviews conducted in Elizabethtown, or via one-on-one Page | 164 video interviews. Each of these 34 people participated in a confidential 30-minute interview. Each were asked the following three questions and all responses were aggregated: 1. From your perspective, what is missing in the community today? 2. What would you like the community to look like in five to ten years? 3. To achieve your vision for the community, how do we get there? A summary of the responses to the in-person and video interviews begins on the next page. A summary of each of the four outer county group sessions then follows. Page | 165 Key Community Leader In-Person/In-Person Video Interview Summaries – Categorized by Author 1. From your perspective, what is missing in the community today? Community Leadership Education Government Infrastructure/Transportation Community Quality of Life Community Collaboration & Advanced Government Leadership Housing Downtown Elizabethtown Leadership Manufacturing/Engineering • Lack of good working • Adequate number of • Recreational issues – • One voice from a • High school students relationship between the housing units need more vibrant regional perspective ready to move into City and County downtown and arts scene advanced • Affordable housing (for • Lots of good groups manufacturing • Community is too Fort Knox soldiers and • Public gathering space doing good things positions – work divided…long run, this BOSK workers alike) downtown backed with good ready for other than won’t play well when the people but are not college need to move quickly on • Housing – needs to be • Need more parking always working an issue comes up defined as to type/market downtown together; some • More advanced level/quantities groups tend to work manufacturing • Overall quality of in silos classes to feed metro leadership is not where it • Lack of industry needs (all needs to be…City infrastructure…can’t build • Lack of singular districts/ industries) government tends to be large subdivision that leadership “voice” “cliquish” when it comes doesn’t have sewer and (either an individual • College engineering to appointments and water…same goes for or organization) to school/pathway to other issues schools represent engineering (no KY community; community college • Political will to do what is • More mixed use, more community is full of has an engineering needed is lacking walkable, more attractive great people, but pathway) developments who is the natural leader? • Need to integrate green space into future development • More housing/entertainment downtown Page | 166 Community Leadership Education Government Infrastructure/Transportation Community Quality of Life Community Branding Workforce Development Public Safety & Related Tax Issues Roads/Regional Transit Greater Elizabethtown • Lack of community • Linkage between • Volunteer fire • Community needs a • Arts community needs branding; need to DOD-schools and the departments are having comprehensive plan further development promote community EC3 facility (Fort Knox serious problems finding (L’Enfant’s master plan for as the EV battery can’t afford technical volunteer fire Washington, D.C. was • Too many gaps by being capital/energy center studies area) – issues fighters…staffing is referenced) – how will so close to Louisville of the world are busing related minimal roads be laid out, utilities? to/from high schools • Community has evolved and dollar cost (EC3 is • Ability to get around to a more executive area • Lack of first-class EMS and maxed out in space); without a car – regional – 16 generals at Fort Knox paid county fire protection EC3 will need to transit, bicycle lanes have made it an executive expand not only for and the ability to pay for post Fort Knox but for county fire protection • Regional transit system; BOSK workers and parents don’t • Elizabethtown is not yet have an opportunity to an executive community • Need another 30,000 • Lack of taxing district to easily transit the area people to move to fund EMS and county fire • Lack of good this area to fill jobs fighting • With coming growth, conference/meeting infrastructure could facilities • Workforce become more of an issue recruitment (roads)…do we have what • Younger people want we need? Louisville amenities and will live there if Elizabethtown doesn’t provide it Page | 167 Community Leadership Education Government Infrastructure/Transportation Community Quality of Life Miscellaneous Workforce Development Regionalization Amenities/Retail • Four-year university • How do we ensure that • Lack outside of the box • More high-end we’ll have the workers – thinking restaurants (Jeff Ruby’s) • Need stronger/more with the skillsets – that schools will be needed? • Need for • Grocery store in Glendale; regionalization/regional along with medical • Affordable land for • How do we ensure that planning services new schools (last workforces at existing school – previous industrial plants won’t be • Critical problem of water • YMCA price: $11,000/acre; cannibalized by BOSK? supply across a multi- now: $65,000) county region • Childcare facilities • Collaboration is needed to make this work but does • Need for regional water • 24-hour vet services not currently exist system • Good country club • A talent attraction • HCWD 1/2 - lynchpin environment program – led by between Louisville Water government – is needed and other jurisdictions – • Lack of an area where equipment age prevents executives can mix expansion for industrial socially development • Lack of Class A office • HCWD 2 can’t add sewer space line without City approval • Lack of fiber Airport capacity/redundancy in some areas of the county • Airport needs to expand – need commercial • Quality of life – music flights/larger aircraft venues • Need more retail stores – still must go to Louisville for good men’s clothing • Needs Dillard’s/Johnson & Murphy • Better quality of grocery stores (Whole Food/Trader Joes) Page | 168 Key Community Leader In-Person/In-Person Video Interview Summaries – Categorized by Author 2. What would you like the community to look like in five to ten years? Category Specific Amenities • More grocery stores – Publix would be good • Need better restaurants – for entertaining customers/global company leaders – we have to go to Louisville now • Need more greenspace – will provide a more prosperous look • Recreation – need bicycle lanes • Better retail corridor • More recreational opportunities Community Leadership/Visionary • Visionary planning is a must • Engage younger professionals in community issues • Intentionally incorporate new people into community leadership positions • I want this to be a community that my kids would want to come back to after college (larger city of more interest to mid-20-year-olds, but not a huge city) • I like the “hometown” feel • A well-planned community that has capitalized on the growth • Public safety/education – growth needs to be managed in order to maintain a safe city with good schools • Minimize loss of quality of place • Minimize political issues • How do we keep the crime rate low? • How do we keep quality of schools/medical care? Page | 169 Category Specific Cultural Issues • More opportunities for cultural events – we need to up our game and bring in nationally recognized talent • TED Talk – initiate events from the community Downtown Elizabethtown • Vibrant downtown, such as Greenville, SC or Bowling Green – existing efforts to grow downtown Elizabethtown need to happen faster • Replicate downtown Greenville, SC – modern yet historic – beautiful downtown Education • More schools • New private school (religious and/or not religious) • Full four-year branch of Western Kentucky University • Attract other university engineering programs (Purdue) to Elizabethtown Community & Technical College • Vigorous program to educate high school students about the value of advanced manufacturing jobs (as an alternative to college) • Community with good schools • More balanced distribution of students across county school district Glendale • Maintain “village” atmosphere (as much as possible)…most likely will have more shops and restaurants • Grow village in the right way to maintain the environment/ambience that has made Glendale famous Page | 170 Category Specific Greater Elizabethtown • Elizabethtown – maintain community feel vs. becoming a “big city” – don’t want it to look like Louisville • BOSK – productive and doing what its designed to do • Improve area south of downtown • Minimize political issues • City that has maintained its low crime rate, along with its high-quality schools and medical care • A community that put in upgrades in infrastructure to handle BOSK and other new plants • Increase in spousal employment opportunities • New partnerships to make things happen • New “brand” of being more of a metro area • Thriving/sustainable market • A community that did not become another “factory town” • A community that successfully attracted a younger demographic • Become a progressive community by making progressive investments in the community • Want the community to feel like it does today – sense of community • “Fill in the blanks…” – south side of Elizabethtown needs development • Going from 36,000 people to becoming a larger city • Multiple choices/types of places to live • Strong churches/schools Page | 171 Category Specific Transportation • New regional transit system • New transportation infrastructure opportunities such as Uber • A community that has successfully managed traffic and growth • Airport– upgrade FBO, which serves as the community’s front door • Airport – expand airport with new commercial flights/air cargo options/new hangars • Identify the next big “Ring Road” project? • Build new outer loop around Elizabethtown (10-mile radius) Page | 172 Key Community Leader In-Person/In-Person Video Interview Summaries – Categorized by Author 3. In order to achieve your vision for the community, how do we get there? Leadership Government Vision Development Issues Coordination/Collaboration Issues • Goal: make this a community where people want to live • Need to work around the disjointedness of existing local governments or find a better way to deliver local government services • Need to manage and grow vision for the community • Need for comprehensive planning – need first class area planner to develop a • Eliminate good old boy networks and their current acceptability; set aside egos master plan for the Elizabethtown area to assure connectivity to BOSK and other new plants • Be intentional about letting go of control • Ensure that city services are in place for the growth that is coming • Need tons of collaboration • Focus on changing some of the regulations/restrictions to allow development of • Need strategic approach to fulfilling community quality of life needs housing and commercial projects (such as Elizabethtown’s building height cap) Vision Implementation/Management Issues Revenue Issues • Community leaders/elected officials need to send message: BOSK will bring change • Determine how to pay for these things which will benefit the entire community (need campaign) • New local taxation opportunities are needed in order to grow • Branding – build on BOSK • One example is Georgia’s Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax (SPLOST) • Leaders need to work in unison in planning for the region’s future Governing Issues • Assemble group from Elizabethtown and Glendale to talk about growth and how to get there • Unified government needs to be revisited • Assemble a group to recruit specific entities to the community • Need core group of people “who love this community…willing to lead/invest” • Need for group to set aside egos for the benefit of the community – servant mindset instead of money mindset • Everyone “takes a piece” – people with expertise take the lead on various components • Need strong group to lead future development of region Page | 173 Outer County Leadership Groups Introduction A key component of the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Transformation Project is the key stakeholder interview process. To fully understand the impact that the new BlueOval SK (BOSK) Battery Park is going to have on the metro area, it is important to gauge the mindsets of various key community leaders, both inside and outside of Hardin County. To that end, four interviews were conducted with community leadership groups in the following outer counties: • Grayson County • Hart County96 • Larue County • Meade County Each session revolved around a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) theme relative to the impact that the BOSK plant might have on the outer county. Each session included the following presentation agenda: • Welcome/self-introductions • BOSK project overview • Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Transformation Project overview • General discussion Following are summaries from each of the four sessions: Meade County Meeting attendees included the following people: • Annie Emond, Executive Director, Meade County Chamber of Commerce • Bryan Claycomb, Mayor-Elect, City of Brandenburg • David Pace, Chairman, Meade County Economic Development • Kenny Rambo, President, Heartland Communications Consultants • Luke Schmidt, President, L.B. Schmidt & Associates, LLC (project consultant) Much of the discussion centered on the Nucor Steel plant that is currently under construction (and nearly finished) in Brandenburg. The plant is expected to be fully operational by March 2023 and will employ 427 workers. The plant site totals 900 acres along the Ohio River, and the building footprint takes up about 200 acres. Prior to the plant’s construction, the vacant property’s value contributed approximately $8,000 per year in property tax to the local school district. With the buildout and improvements, the site now contributes between $700,000 and $1 million annually. 96 Hart County leadership group session was conducted via video conference Nucor Brandenburg Mill Source: The (Elizabethtown) News-Enterprise General Comments • Nucor now has 427 employees working on the site • Plant site is located outside of Brandenburg city limits • Nucor does not want to be annexed by the City of Brandenburg • Nucor’s work shed is pulling from six primary counties: Meade, Harrison (IN), Breckinridge, Hardin, Larue, and Grayson • KY 313 has improved access to Brandenburg/Meade County and helped to land the plant • Nucor does not plan to have a childcare facility on the site • Nucor expects up to 165 trucks per day to pick up product; as such, there is a need for a truck stop/service center to support drivers and serve as a place to line up for product pickup • Housing prices have risen with the arrival of the plant; former median house price: $135,000; now $265,000 - $303,000 for a single-family home • Median household income has also risen in Meade County with the arrival of Nucor; 3/19 median household income: $56,000; 12/21: $64,000 • Poverty rate of 14.8% remains in place • Population has grown by 3,000 over the past three years Strengths • BOSK is working with Meade County Schools to develop pathways for careers • KY 313 access to I-65 is a plus for attracting future industry, including possible BOSK suppliers • Meade County Industrial Authority is looking for new land on KY 313 • City of Brandenburg’s water system is expanding to 2 million gallons per day Page | 175 Weaknesses • KY 313 is considered to be a waste transport corridor; there is concern about transporting waste from the BOSK plant through Meade County in the event of an accident…this could turn into a haz-mat issue • Meade County needs more emergency responders • There is no existing tax base to support growth Opportunities • County would like to develop network of EV charging stations and make it a multi-county network • During COVID, Nucor established digital hotspots around the county which served to expand Internet access; hotspots remain in place Threats • Wage issue is real…originally due to Nucor and now due to both Nucor and BOSK…how with other local businesses and industry compete? • Small businesses are finding it harder to find/retain new employees • Lack of sewer service outside cities of Brandenburg and Muldraugh Additional Comments • People need to get facts straight about the development • BOSK might drive growth from Hardin County, down KY 313 to the Ohio River Bridge • City of Brandenburg needs to be in position to extend sewer lines if the need presents itself • Need to look beyond county boundaries for regional growth opportunities • Meade County Schools are key to retaining talent/residents • Meade County needs a couple of better restaurants and a new grocery store Grayson County Meeting attendees included the following people: • April Spalding, Executive Director, Grayson County Chamber of Commerce • Ashley Herrington, CEO, Twin Lakes Medical Center/Owensboro Health • Bonnie Henderson, Mayor, City of Clarkson • Doug Robinson, Superintendent, Grayson County Schools • Harold Miller, Mayor, City of Leitchfield • Ilsa Johnson, Tourism Director, City of Leitchfield • Kenny Rambo, President, Heartland Communications Consultants • Kevin Henderson, Judge/Executive, Grayson County • Loretta Woosley, City Clerk/Treasurer, City of Leitchfield • Luke Schmidt, President, L.B. Schmidt & Associates, LLC Much of the discussion centered on Leitchfield and Grayson County’s proximity to Elizabethtown and the expectation that many workers from Grayson County will pursue employment at BOSK. Page | 176 Twin Lakes Medical Center/Owensboro Health Source: Google Image General Comments • Current Leitchfield population is 6,500, with another 1,500 living just outside of the city • Most of Grayson County now has fiber access to the Internet • Many BOSK workers coming from urban areas may want to relocate in a rural area Strengths • BOSK team met with county school district leaders and established a pathway between BOSK and the community • The Western Kentucky Parkway provides an opportunity to move BOSK goods through Grayson County • Grayson County Schools are working to scale-up schools to supply students for “jobs of the future” • Grayson County offers less expensive/more affordable housing without countywide planning and zoning • City of Leitchfield does have planning and zoning Weaknesses • Lack of countywide planning and zoning • Current county workforce participation in the job market • Lack of housing for potential BOSK workers to purchase and commute to the plant Nolin Lake – Significant Source of Tourism Dollars in Grayson County Source: Google Image Page | 177 Opportunities • County leaders would like to see the Commonwealth develop a national job recruitment campaign encouraging former Kentuckians to return home to help fill the new positions • Develop sewer system in eastern Grayson County to accommodate new homes from Hardin County spillover • Develop regional transit system to shuttle Grayson County workers to Elizabethtown • Build on existing 25-acre industrial site to recruit BOSK supply chain companies • Build on existing plan to add new WK Parkway interchange at Big Clifty • Begin working regionally to promote the region for business and economic development Threats • Potential loss of Leitchfield industrial workers to BOSK Hart County Meeting (conducted via video conference) attendees included the following people: • Joe Choate, Judge/Executive, Hart County • Kaylie Butler, Executive Director, Hart County Chamber of Commerce • Kenny Rambo, President, Heartland Communications Consultants • Luke Schmidt, President, L.B. Schmidt & Associates, LLC • Nathan Smith, Superintendent, Hart County Schools • Randall Curry, Mayor, City of Horse Cave Hart County Blueway on the Green River Source: Google Image General Comments • County is in the Barren River Area Development District; BRADD is mostly influenced by Bowling Green and Warren County • Dart with 1,200 employees is the largest employer in Hart County • More workers commute into Hart County to work at the Marzetti plant Page | 178 • Existing industrial parks in Munfordville and Horse Cave are full • Hart County sits in the “middle” of various jurisdictions/issues which impact the county • The county is part of KYTC District # 4 (Elizabethtown) • The county is in the South Central Community College service area (Bowling Green) • Citizens in Munfordville and northern Hart County go to Elizabethtown for additional services • Citizens in Horse Cave and southern Hart County go to Bowling Green for additional services • The Medical Center (Bowling Green) now own Caverna Hospital • The county is in the Central Time Zone but has economic ties to the Eastern Time Zone as well Downtown Munfordville Source: Google Image Strengths • Hart County is located 15 miles from the BOSK site (Bonnieville exit) • County is located halfway between the BOSK site in Hardin County and the AESC site in Warren County which should drive interest by supply chain firms • County is considering regional water/sewer projects with Hardin and Larue counties • Existing sewer line runs north to Bonnieville; this could be extended to Upton and the industrial park that is under development at the I-65 exit (Larue County side of Upton) • Hart County Industrial Authority would like to develop an industrial park in the north end of Hart County to tie into the Glendale megasite opportunity; 100 + acres have been donated to the Authority in Bonnieville and the Authority has funding for initial excavation in hand. • Another 97 acres are available for industrial development in Horse Cave, also alongside I-65; two BOSK suppliers are looking at the Horse Cave site Weaknesses • Hart County has planning services but does not have zoning (Munfordville and Horse Cave do have planning and zoning); Bonnieville does not have either planning or zoning • The county is 30 minutes from major hospitals or shopping in Elizabethtown or Bowling Green • The county has infrastructure shortcomings Opportunities • Services need to be upgraded to better serve citizens (e.g., more doctors, etc.) • There is a need for a “bridge” between the two ADD districts and the two community colleges • Munfordville could be a great bedroom community – between the two battery plants • There is a concerted effort to bring veterans processing out of the Army at Fort Campbell to relocate to the Bowling Green area (BRADD initiative) Page | 179 • Build on existing infrastructure shortcomings • Consider the development of incentives to attract new businesses and services (but don’t duplicate existing services) in Munfordville • Community alignment in Hart County at present is strong – everyone is working together • Community needs to be able to pivot with the market when new opportunities arise Threats • None reported by the group Larue County Meeting attendees included the following people: • David Raleigh, Superintendent, Larue County Schools • Eric Allen, Director of Student Services, Larue County Schools • Kenny Rambo, President, Heartland Communications Consultants • Luke Schmidt, President, L.B. Schmidt & Associates, LLC • Nick Sullivan, Executive Director, Larue County Chamber of Commerce Abraham Lincoln Birthplace National Historic Site Source: Google Image Strengths • There is room for industrial expansion in Larue County…lots of open land • The county has a very low tax rate • The county has an excellent school district with high rates of achievement • Recreation and tourism opportunities are in place with 20 miles of nature trails and a national historic site Weaknesses • Cost to procure industrial land may serve as an impediment to development Page | 180 • Lack of available land to build housing • County’s low tax rate does not provide funding sources for infrastructure • Existing mobile home parks and other rental property won’t contribute to increasing the tax base…this could lead to higher poverty rates • County residents are resistant to change which impacts ability to grow • Housing and apartment costs and rental rates are increasing; duplex rent is now $1,600/month Opportunities • Growth in population and the economy can lead to smart growth • Grow recreation and tourism streams…keep tourists here after they visit Abraham Lincoln National Historic Site Threats • Incremental student enrollment increase without corresponding tax revenue won’t be enough to fund capital improvements…two of four Larue County schools are now operating at full capacity • County residents are resistant to change • Lack of an adequate workforce – where can we find people to fill existing jobs? • BOSK may poach some of our existing industrial and agricultural workers • The growth that comes to Larue County may be on the “low end” when it comes to growing the economy Page | 181 Page | 182 Overview – Competitive Community Economic Development Platforms As has been shown above, the impact of the new BlueOval SK Battery Park on Elizabethtown and Hardin County will be enormous. Of almost equal importance is the catalyzing effect that the BOSK facilities will have on the community for future growth. Not just community growth but future industrial development and new manufacturing jobs. The I-65 Corridor is now one of the two most important corridors in the nation when it comes to automobile assembly and suppliers to the automotive industry. Elizabethtown remains in a very strong position to recruit additional automotive suppliers to the region, and other types of manufacturing facilities as well. At the same time, other communities will want to attract their fair share of the business. Three growing communities along the I-65 Corridor have been identified as potential key competitors to Elizabethtown/Hardin County going forward: • Bowling Green, Kentucky • Columbia, Tennessee • Decatur, Alabama Following is a brief overview of how each community has organized its economic development assets. Bowling Green, Kentucky Bowling Green lies an hour south of Elizabethtown on I-65. Following is a brief comparison of the two cities: Category Bowling Green Elizabethtown County Warren Hardin County Seat YES YES Population/City 74,926 31,892 MSA Bowling Green Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA # Counties Four Three MSA Population/Rank 185,682/234th 157,026/272nd CSA Bowling Green – Glasgow Louisville – Elizabethtown – Fort Knox CSA Population/Rank 237,487/127th 1,512,785/38th Interstate Highway(s) I-65/I-165 I-65 Four Year University(s) Western Kentucky University None Community College South Central Community & Technical College Elizabethtown Community & Technical College Hospital/# Beds Greenwood Hospital/211 Baptist Health Hardin/300 The Medical Center/337 Airport/Longest Runway Bowling Green – Warren County Regional/6,500’ Elizabethtown Regional/6,000’ Industrial Parks Kentucky Transpark Hughes Center of Commerce & Industry T.J. Patterson Industrial Park Current Available Ind. Acreage97 9 Acres 27 Acres Lead Econ. Dev. Organization Bowling Green Area Chamber of Commerce Elizabethtown – Hardin County Industrial Foundation Note all population figures are 2022 U.S. Census Bureau estimates 97 Source: available acreage as shown in the respective state’s economic development website Page | 183 Bowling Green’s economy revolves primarily around two principal drivers: manufacturing and Western Kentucky University. AESC Envision is currently building an EV electric battery plant in the Kentucky Transpark. The Bowling Green Chamber (www.bgchamber.com) serves as the lead economic development organization not only Bowling Green and Warren County, but also leads a regional 10-county consortium known as South Central Kentucky. The Chamber has won numerous awards for economic development and last year hosted 20 new project announcements. The Bowling Green Chamber also provides “traditional” chamber services to its 1,200 members. Columbia, Tennessee Columbia lies 179 miles south of Elizabethtown on I-65. Columbia is the largest city between Nashville and Huntsville, Alabama. Following is a brief comparison of the two cities: Category Columbia Elizabethtown County Maury Hardin County Seat YES YES Population/City 41,690 (2020) 31,892 MSA Nashville – Davidson - Murfreesboro Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA # Counties 13 Three MSA Population/Rank 2,046,828/35th 157,026/272nd CSA Nashville – Davidson – Murfreesboro Louisville – Elizabethtown – Fort Knox CSA Population/Rank 2,143,407/32nd 1,512,785/38th Interstate Highway(s) I-65 I-65 Four Year University(s) None None Community College Columbia State Community College Elizabethtown Community & Technical College Hospital/# Beds Maury Regional Medical Center/305 Baptist Health Hardin/300 Airport/Longest Runway Maury County Regional/6,000’ Elizabethtown Regional/6,000’ Industrial Parks Hughes Center of Commerce & Industry T.J. Patterson Industrial Park Current Available Ind. Acreage98 150 Acres99 27 Acres Lead Econ. Dev. Organization Maury Alliance Elizabethtown – Hardin County Industrial Foundation Note all population figures are 2022 U.S. Census Bureau estimates Like Bowling Green, the chamber and economic development functions in Columbia are combined into one group – the Maury Alliance (www.mauryalliance.com). At present, only the State of Tennessee list one 150-acre site as available in Columbia. The economy is driven by the nearby GM assembly plant in Spring Hill, which includes an EV electric battery plant which is currently under construction. Source: Gresham-Smith 98 Source: available acreage as shown in the respective state’s economic development website 99 Single site; includes existing 87,000 square foot building Page | 184 Decatur, Alabama Decatur lies 249 miles south of Elizabethtown on I-65. The city is the anchor city of the Decatur Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and is adjacent to the Huntsville MSA. Following is a brief comparison of the two cities: Category Decatur Elizabethtown County Morgan Hardin County Seat YES YES Population/City 57,938 (2020) 31,892 MSA Decatur Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA # Counties Two Three MSA Population/Rank 157,425/271st 157,026/272nd CSA Huntsville – Decatur Louisville – Elizabethtown – Fort Knox CSA Population/Rank 659,486/78th 1,512,785/38th Interstate Highway(s) I-65/I-565 I-65 Four Year University(s) None None Community College Calhoun Community College System Elizabethtown Community & Technical College Hospital/# Beds Decatur Morgan Hospital/120 Baptist Health Hardin/300 Airport/Longest Runway Pryor Field Regional/6,107’ Elizabethtown Regional/6,000’ Industrial Parks Hughes Center of Commerce & Industry T.J. Patterson Industrial Park Current Available Ind. Acreage100 23 sites ranging in size from 5 – 238 Acres 27 Acres Lead Econ. Dev. Organization Morgan County Economic Development Elizabethtown – Hardin County Industrial Association Foundation Note all population figures are 2022 U.S. Census Bureau estimates The Morgan County Economic Development Association (www.mceda.org) leads the economic development function in the Decatur area as a stand- alone entity. Decatur’s economy revolves around its key location on the Tennessee River (it is the largest port on the Tennessee River in terms of cargo). Proximity to the port has led to the development of 12 Fortune 500 manufacturing facilities. Source: Google Image Proximity to nearby (and fast-growing) Huntsville – now the largest city in Alabama – has also resulted in more advanced manufacturing opportunities. Included in this is the Mazda-Toyota auto assembly plant located in adjacent Limestone County, which opened two years ago. Each of these three cities are expected to continue to provide worthy competition to Elizabethtown and Hardin County when it comes to future site selection for manufacturing facilities. Each has certain advantages over the others (e.g., Tennessee’s lack of personal income tax; Decatur’s extensive port facilities, Bowling Green’s four-year university, Hardin County’s soon to be largest EV electric battery manufacturing site in the world, etc.). The most important issue now facing Elizabethtown and Hardin County: securing new tracts of land for industrial development. 100 Source: available acreage as shown in the respective state’s economic development website Page | 185 Page | 186 Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Geographical Expansion Research has been completed on an issue of interest to the sponsors of the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Transformation Project – that of the possible expansion of the current boundaries of the MSA itself. Following is a summary of the research: Background The Elizabethtown Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was first designated in 2000 by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). In its first delineation, the MSA included Hardin and LaRue counties. By 2013, OMB expanded the delineation of the MSA to include Meade County (which had been part of the nearby Louisville MSA). The MSA’s name was also changed at that time to the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox Metropolitan Statistical Area. (Only two of 384 MSAs include the name in the MSA title of a nearby military installation; Watertown – Fort Drum (NY) is the other one.) The Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA ranks 271st in population, with a 2021 estimated population of 156,766101 people, just behind Grand Junction (CO) and just ahead of Decatur (AL). The MSA is part of the Louisville – Elizabethtown – Bardstown Combined Statistical Area102, which ranks 37th in the nation with a population of 1,602,309 people. Kentucky MSAs103 Designation/Expansion of an MSA To understand how an MSA can be expanded, it is useful to first understand how an MSA is initially designated. The U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is the federal agency tasked with the delineation of “core based statistical areas.” Every core based statistical area has a “central” county, which always contains the county with the largest population. There are two types of core based statistical areas: micropolitan and metropolitan (the name of the core based statistical area is always based on the largest city in the defined geographical area). 101 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 102 The Combined Statistical Area includes adjoining core based statistical areas with overlapping commuting patterns; Bardstown is a separate micropolitan area which includes Nelson County 103 Source: Google Image Page | 187 • Micropolitan areas contain a central county with an overall smaller population, with an urban core area population of between 10,000 and 50,000 people; micropolitan areas can include more than one county (Campbellsville, Glasgow, and Somerset are examples of micropolitan statistical areas in Kentucky) • Metropolitan areas contain a central county with a larger population, with an urban core area population of 50,000 or more people; metropolitan areas can include more than one county (Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Elizabethtown – Fort Knox, and Owensboro are examples of metropolitan statistical areas in Kentucky) OMB every 10 years, following the census, determines which areas are designated metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas. Such designation is based entirely on census figures. OMB also decides if any existing MSA boundaries need to be revised. Such boundary revisions from one or more outlying counties adjacent to the central county are based on census data and five-year estimates provided in the American Community Survey (ACS). ACS data importantly illustrates commuting patterns between counties. If a county has most of its workers commuting to the central county, per OMB regulations, then that county is added to the MSA. As indicated above, due to commuting patterns, Meade County was added to the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA. By comparison, like Elizabethtown, Bowling Green achieved MSA status in 2000 with two original counties – Warren and Edmonson. Due to changing commuting patterns, two more counties – Allen and Butler – were added in 2010. Today, Bowling Green’s MSA’s 2021 estimated population is 182,594. Bowling Green’s MSA ranks as the 236th largest metro, just behind Kingston (NY) and just ahead of Joplin (MO). The Bowling Green MSA is part of the Bowling Green – Glasgow Combined Statistical Area104, which ranks 127th in the nation with a population of 234,410 people. Future Expansion of the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA At present, OMB is reviewing ACS data for every MSA in the country. Per the federal regulations related to this issue, OMB will announce sometime during June 2023 the delineation for each MSA – the addition of any new MSAs, and the expansion (or contraction) of any existing MSA. In the case of the current review, OMB will be reviewing ACS commuting data for the period of 2016 – 2020. The 2016 – 2020 data may show changes in the MSA commuting pattern to Elizabethtown. If so, then it can be assumed that one or more counties may be added to the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA. However, the period of 2016 through 2020 will not have the advantage of including what clearly will bring significant commuting changes into and out of the MSA. Once the BlueOval SK Blue Oval Battery Park is fully operational by 2026, it is expected that many new workers will be commuting to Elizabethtown from counties such as Green (11,291 population), Hart (19,460 population), and Grayson (26,524 population). The addition of just Hart and Grayson counties pushes the MSA population to 202,750 people. That would make Elizabethtown – Fort Knox the 225th largest metro, just behind Bend (OR) and just ahead of St. Cloud (MN). It would also place the metro in a new list – markets greater than 200,000 people – which could be significant when it comes to potential future economic development and growth. 104 The Glasgow Micropolitan Statistical Area includes Barren and Metcalfe counties Page | 188 OMB review of ACS commuting data for 2033 MSA delineation will take place in 2028 and will examine commuting patterns from 2023 – 2028. Advantages/Disadvantages to MSA Inclusion When the metro designation was first envisioned back in the 1940s and as it has been implemented by OMB, the primary intent of the designation (be it metropolitan or micropolitan) is simple: “The classification provides a nationally consistent set of delineations for collecting, tabulating, and publishing Federal statistics for geographic areas105.” It has never been the intent of OMB to use this system for the purpose of designating counties urban or rural. In fact, many rural counties have been routinely added to MSAs over the years. That said, “Although MSA classifications originally were intended to be used solely to describe a county, policymakers have used them to make policy on issues such as health care, education, and housing…For example, transportation, housing, health care and education policy all allocate federal funding using OMB classifications106.” The larger the MSA, the larger the potential federal grant may be. As important, aside from federal grants, economic development officials, corporate expansion executives, etc., routinely use the list of MSAs to target new markets. As an example, a restaurant company, looking to expand in the Midwest or Mid-South, may set as an entry threshold “any metropolitan area,” or, any MSA with a population of over 100,000 people. Counties located in the Midwest or Mid-South that may lie in smaller MSAs or in any micropolitan area, will miss the cut (and the investment/new jobs opportunity). Being a part of an MSA also provides a county with new branding opportunities when it comes to community promotion and economic development. As the project consultant has examined this issue, the only potential negative for a rural county to be added to an MSA may be the loss of some future U.S. Department of Agriculture loan/grant eligibility. 105 Source: OMB website 106 Source: The Washington Post (4/19/21) Page | 189 Potential Future Threat to Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA While working on this project component, the consultant also spent time reviewing one of OMB’s process recommendations as to how the metropolitan/micropolitan designation works. As part of its 10-year review, OMB routinely requests suggestions or recommendations as to how the program should be changed/improved. OMB’s Standards Review Committee review these recommendations. Public comments are allowed after the recommendations are first published/posted. Then OMB formally acts on the recommendations. During the most recent round, one recommendation which OMB formally considered was: (1) The minimum urban area population to qualify as an MSA be increased from 50,000 to 100,000107 (emphasis added) OMB rejected this recommendation, but only after a lot of blowback from community leaders and Members of Congress. Had this recommendation been formally adopted, 144 MSAs would have been re-classified as Micropolitan Statistical Areas. This would have included Bowling Green, Elizabethtown, and Owensboro in Kentucky. According to an article in the Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer (3/20/21), OMB currently lists the core urban population for each of the three Kentucky metros as follows: • Bowling Green 78,306 • Elizabethtown 73,467 • Owensboro 70,543 The urban population figure for Elizabethtown most likely includes city limit populations for Elizabethtown, Radcliff, and Vine Grove, plus some of the outer suburbs of Elizabethtown currently in unincorporated areas (e.g., Cecilia, Rineyville, Glendale, etc.). What this means is that based on current population figures, Elizabethtown needs to grow its urban core by at least 30,000 people to circumvent this threat in the future. The project consultant recommends that discussions begin in the community to address this issue going forward. How Can the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA be Expanded? A review of the OMB regulations does not include a standardized method for a community to use to expand its MSA. Rather, OMB relies on a ten-year process which revolves around the census. Project consultant Luke Schmidt met with staff from the offices of Congressman Brett Guthrie, Senator Rand Paul, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It is the view of Leader McConnell’s staff that the community’s next best opportunity to expand the boundary of the MSA will occur in 2028. During 2028, OMB staff will do a deep dive into the previous five years of commuting patterns for each MSA (this will include the first two full years of commuting to the new BOSK plant). If the community is not successful in 2028 in expanding the boundary of the MSA, the next opportunity will occur in 2033 as part of the regular 10-year process described above. It is the view of Leader McConnell’s staff that in 107 Source: OMB Page | 190 2033, OMB staff will rely on data which include historical commuting patterns to the BOSK plant, beginning in 2025. Consultant Schmidt concurs with this view. Page | 191 Page | 192 Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkway Conversions to Interstate Status Preliminary research has been completed on an additional issue of interest to the sponsors of the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA Transformation Project – that being the possible conversion of two of Kentucky’s parkways to interstate status. Following is a summary of the research: Background Kentucky developed a system of turnpikes and parkways, beginning back in the late 1950s. Two of these highways – the Kentucky Turnpike and the Mountain Parkway – were built before the establishment of the federal interstate highway system. The parkway system was designed to bring four-lane limited access highways to all parts of the Commonwealth. The Kentucky Turnpike connected Louisville and Elizabethtown. The turnpike became part of Interstate 65. In 1963, the Western Kentucky Parkway (now known as the Wendell Ford Western Kentucky Parkway) was built from Elizabethtown to Princeton. (The parkway was extended from Princeton to I-24, providing an expressway from Elizabethtown to Paducah. Kentucky’s Parkway and Interstate System108 In 1965, the Bluegrass Parkway (now known as the Martha Layne Collins Bluegrass Parkway) was built from Elizabethtown eastward to Versailles, providing an expressway link between Elizabethtown and Lexington. Kentucky’s parkway system was built before and during the establishment of the federal interstate system. As such, the parkways, like interstates, are limited access highways. The parkways are built like interstate highways but may not meet all the standards of interstate highways. The parkways opened many parts of Kentucky that otherwise had been previously served with poor highways and have helped to facilitate economic development. (All parkways started as toll roads; however, once the bonds were paid off, the tolls were removed.) Elizabethtown has benefited enormously from its central location, at the hub of I-65 and the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky parkways. 108 Source: Google Image Page | 193 Ongoing Conversion of Kentucky Parkways to Auxiliary Interstate Highway Status Most of Kentucky’s parkways have either been converted or are in the process of being converted to auxiliary interstate highway status. An auxiliary interstate highway is defined as a spur, loop, or by-pass route which intersects with an interstate highway. An auxiliary interstate highway is one that has been built as a new highway or is an existing highway which has been converted and upgraded to meet interstate standards. Following is a list of parkways which have been converted or are being converted into auxiliary interstate highways: Parkway109 From To Conversion Status Audubon110 Henderson/I-69 Owensboro No conversion underway Bluegrass Elizabethtown/I-65 Versailles No conversion underway Cumberland Park City/I-65 Somerset Currently being converted to I-365 Daniel Boone London/I-75 Hazard Two-lane parkway; does not meet interstate standards Green River Bowling Green/I-65 Owensboro Converted to I-165 Mountain Winchester/I-64 Salyersville Section from Winchester to Campton is four lanes Section from Campton to Salyersville is being widened Parkway will be extended to Prestonsburg Pennyrile Henderson Hopkinsville Section from Henderson to WK Pkwy converted to I-69 Section from WK Pkwy to Hopkinsville converted to I-169 Purchase Calvert City/I-24 Fulton Converted to I-69 Western Kentucky Elizabethtown/I-65 Eddyville/I-24 Section from Pennyrile Pkwy to Eddyville converted to I-69 Section from I-69 to I-165 designated future I-569 I-165 to Elizabethtown – conversion study completed 2022 As the above chart indicates, all but four parkways have been converted (or are being converted) to interstate status. The Daniel Boone Parkway is two-lanes and would not qualify for conversion. The Mountain Parkway is undergoing a major expansion in terms of capacity (upgrading from two to four lanes) and is being extended eastward to Prestonsburg. Interstate conversion may occur at a future date. Formal discussion about conversion of the Audubon Parkway to I-369 has taken place. Parts of the Western Kentucky Parkway have been converted to I-69, and a section at the current western end of the parkway has been proposed for conversion to I-569 (from I-69 to I-165). This leaves the eastern most section of the Western Kentucky Parkway and the Bluegrass Parkway which have not been converted, both of which intersect I-65 at Elizabethtown. Process of Converting a Parkway to an Auxiliary Interstate Highway Converting a parkway to an auxiliary interstate highway includes a lot of moving parts, such as taking a highway currently under “state” management and converting it to “federal” management. One of the benefits to the state is that after conversion, 90% of maintenance costs become the responsibility of the federal government. Before a parkway can be converted, it must first be upgraded (where needed) to federal Interstate Design Standards. Broadly speaking, following are the 10 primary design standards which must be met prior to conversion (some waivers/exceptions may be permitted): 1. Design Speed 2. Lane Width 109 Parkway historical names listed 110 Proposal would convert Audubon Parkway to I-369 if it is upgraded to interstate standards Page | 194 3. Shoulder Width 4. Horizontal Curve Radius 5. Superelevation Rate (deals with steep grades) 6. Stopping Sight Distance 7. Maximum Grade 8. Cross Slope 9. Vertical Clearance (e.g., overpasses, overhead signs, etc.) 10. Design Loading Structural Capacity The process usually begins with a formal study, commissioned by the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, to determine what upgrades will be required to convert the highway. The study will look at such things as: • Do any existing interchanges need to be rebuilt? • Are shoulder widths adequate? • Is pavement strength adequate? • Are exits spaced properly? • Are medians wide enough, or is some type of crossover barrier needed in certain areas? The study will provide a detailed list of all needed improvements, along with an estimated cost. Funding sources are usually identified in such studies. As an example, the Cumberland Parkway between Park City/I-65 and Somerset is currently being converted to I- 365 (92-mile four-lane parkway). The upgrade study has been completed and the study’s Executive Summary follows the narrative in this section of the report. Estimated cost to bring the parkway up to interstate standards is $72.6 million. A redesign/rebuild of an interchange in Glasgow is the single most expensive upgrade item ($15 million). Conversion signage may be permitted once the upgrades are committed, completed or well underway. Assessment of Converting the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways Western Kentucky Parkway The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet completed a comprehensive study of converting the eastern most section of the Western Kentucky Parkway, from I-165 to Elizabethtown in May 2022. Initial conversion costs of the 60-mile stretch of parkway range from $56 million to $64 million. Initial conversion means that immediate safety/design issues will have been met; however, the parkway will still not meet “final” interstate design standards. It is possible at this point that the federal government will allow interstate signage to be installed. To meet final standards, the cost will range from $102 million to $127 million. According to the KYTC study, up to $70 million of this cost will center on a redesign and rebuild of much of the existing major interchange on the south side of Elizabethtown, where I-65, the Western Kentucky Parkway, US 31W, US 31W By-Pass, and the Lincoln Parkway meet. On the Parkway’s section of this interchange, none of it meets the federal interstate design standard. There are two full expressway interchanges and a grade level intersection all within one mile of each other. Full remedy of this situation could require new flyover ramps from I-65 to the parkway, along with other adjustments. Page | 195 Bluegrass Parkway According to KYTC, nothing outside of a few conversations has been done to start the conversion process of the Bluegrass Parkway to an interstate highway. Using the ongoing Cumberland Parkway conversion as a guide, it can be assumed that many of the same types of individual items found in their study (e.g., shoulder width expansions, length of ramp areas, etc.) will also be found in a study of the Bluegrass Parkway. On the Bluegrass Parkway, along with standard remedial issues, it is anticipated that the interchanges which once also served as toll plazas at Boston and Bloomfield will need to be redesigned and rebuilt. For the two parkways, these three interchange issues will be the most expensive part of their respective conversions. Conversion Benefits There are certain benefits which will accrue to the Elizabethtown community if either or both parkways are converted to auxiliary interstate highway status, including: 1. Implementation of road design enhancements which might take decades to achieve otherwise 2. Improvements in parkway safety 3. Putting Elizabethtown on three (3) different interstate highways, which will enhance economic development efforts and the creation of new jobs The first two benefits listed above will also accrue to communities located along the parkways, like Bardstown, Harrodsburg, Lawrenceburg, and Leitchfield with conversion. However, the most important benefit will be putting these communities on an interstate highway for the first time, which will enhance their respective efforts to create new jobs. Conversion Strategy/I-365 The process by which the Cumberland Parkway is currently being converted to I-365 follows below: As noted above, the Cumberland Parkway is in the process of being converted to I-365. To get this process off the ground, the Somerset – Pulaski County Economic Development Authority (SPEDA) took the lead in sharing the benefits of conversion to community leaders along the parkway. SPEDA was soon joined by South Kentucky RECC, Taylor County RECC, and Farmers RECC as additional sponsors to keep the project moving forward. Outreach to the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet also took place. Appropriate state and federal legislative support were developed up front. The sponsors successfully applied for $500,000 in federal BUILD funds to fund the upgrade study. The study has been completed and work is underway to fund and carry out the needed upgrades. The Cumberland Parkway has been designated a future interstate spur. Page | 196 Recommendations If community leaders in Elizabethtown decide to proceed with parkway conversion, several things will need to take place. Because two different parkways are involved, it will require two separate projects (both working to achieve the same outcome). Following is a preliminary list of what will be required: Project Management Because Elizabethtown is served by both parkways (and the community stands to benefit the most from conversion), it is suggested that the primary sponsor be based in Elizabethtown. The Hardin County Chamber of Commerce can serve as the primary sponsor and can recruit additional sponsors in Elizabethtown and along both parkways. A project facilitator should be selected to manage (on behalf of the sponsors) the projects and keep both moving forward, including initiation of discussions with the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet to fully develop an implantation plan. Starting with District # 4 officials, this will include KY Highway District officials in: • District # 2 (Madisonville) – Western Kentucky Parkway • District # 4 (Elizabethtown) – Western Kentucky Parkway/Bluegrass Parkway • District # 7 (Lexington) – Bluegrass Parkway Kentucky Highway Department Districts111 Finally, develop talking points and a PowerPoint presentation to “make the case” to various project constituents and build support for securing state and federal approvals as needed. Community Leaders Outreach Along each parkway, initiate outreach to the following organizations and individuals and build support: • Chambers of commerce • Economic development agencies • Mayors and county judge/executives • State representatives and state senators • Utilities which serve communities along the parkways 111 Source: Google Image Page | 197 Federal Leader Outreach112 • Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell • Senator Rand Paul • Congressman James Comer (KY 01) • Congressman Brett Guthrie (KY 02) • Congressman Thomas Massie (KY 04) • Congressman Andy Barr (KY 06) Part of any plan will need to include an understanding of what will be required of Congress and the Kentucky General Assembly when it comes to various approvals. This can be confirmed with the initial discussion with KYTC District # 4 officials. Conversion of the Bluegrass Parkway will be a “start from scratch” program as no work regarding conversion has been started, historically. It is expected that the Bluegrass Parkway will be designated I-565. Conversion of the Western Kentucky Parkway () should build on what has been done so far to convert part of the WK Parkway to I-569 in Muhlenberg and Ohio counties. It is expected that the remaining portion of the WK Parkway from I-165 in Ohio County to Elizabethtown will be also designated as I-569. 112 Amazingly, the Bluegrass Parkway cuts across four different congressional districts Page | 198 Project Recommendations Introduction The arrival of BlueOval SK, accompanying supplier plants, Krueger Packaging, and Nucor is an exciting time for the MSA. Many new opportunities such as commercial, retail, dining, etc. will arrive. Using the aggregated responses from the Key Stakeholder online surveys provides insight into the thought processes of community leaders as to the current state of the region and its future. Bottom line: strong majorities of community leaders who participated in the Key Stakeholder engagement process support seizing the opportunities provided by BlueOval SK and supporting future growth. As a reminder, following are summaries of the responses: Following is a summary of the key majority viewpoints: Quality of Life Issues • People like living in Hardin County and appreciate the collaboration, collegiality, support and comradery that exists between government, education, healthcare, and business leaders • People appreciate the low crime rate and the fact that the community is growing and is a good place to raise a family • On the other end of the spectrum, people would like more “premium” restaurants, department stores and better retail opportunities • Concern was expressed about the new leadership team in Hardin County Government and their lack of preparedness for the growth and influx that is coming • Concern was also expressed about the lack of convention/meeting space, public transit and cultural opportunities • Strong majorities expressed satisfaction when it comes to education providers (all levels) in the community, along with the quality of healthcare providers and public safety agencies, and park systems • While majorities expressed satisfaction with retail opportunities in Downtown Elizabethtown and the North Dixie retail corridor (excluding Towne Mall), significant dissatisfaction was expressed about the current status of Towne Mall and retail opportunities in Radcliff and Vine Grove • Crowne Point Theater and the Elizabethtown Sports Park scored very high marks in terms of satisfaction of opportunities provided to citizens Page | 199 Overall Growth Issues • Strong majorities supported and/or recognized the following when it comes to future growth: o Managing growth both in the City of Elizabethtown and beyond with smart growth strategies o Land values will increase resulting in more dense housing developments o The community should begin planning for new utility corridors to accommodate future growth o The community should begin planning for extending professional (full-time) firefighting protection services to outlying areas near the BOSK plant o The City of Elizabethtown should consider developing a strategic annexation plan, recognizing that thousands of people already live just outside the city limits, work in and use/enjoy city services/amenities Economic Development Issues • Strong majorities supported and/or recognized the following when it comes to economic development: o Elizabethtown/Hardin County will be one of the five growth centers/economic powerhouses of Kentucky going forward o It is important to maintain growth and development of new jobs to retain local talent and recruit new talent to the community going forward o New regional transit system to efficiently move people and workers around Hardin County o New community branding is needed for current and future economic development/market promotion o Appropriately planned solar energy projects should become part of the community’s power mix • One area of concern: majority of respondents to not believe that community leaders are aligned properly to implement the existing growth, and plan for and manage future growth BlueOval SK Issues • Strong majorities agreed that BOSK will become a key and valued component of the community, support the active recruitment of BOSK supplier plants to the community, and that the community should formally engage with BOSK to support future expansion of the battery park Page | 200 Future Industrial Development/New Jobs Strong majorities agreed on the following: • Support Elizabethtown/Hardin County Industrial Foundation efforts to secure new industrial development land to compete with regional communities and create new jobs • Take steps in the foreseeable future to secure land for the next “big project,” which might require a new mega site To tie this project together, the author has developed a series of recommendations for the consideration of community leaders. The recommendations are grouped as follows: • Community Branding/Promotion • Community Growth Management • MSA Future Planning • Quality of Life • Transportation • Community Leadership/Future Regional Planning & Project Facilitation Community Branding/Promotion BlueOval SK not only represents a “once in a lifetime” opportunity in terms of investment, new jobs, etc., for the community, it also brings new opportunities for the community to re-brand itself, to take advantage (among other things) of the fact that it will be the “EV electric battery manufacturing capital of the world.” This presents all new opportunities to position Elizabethtown, Hardin County, Central Kentucky, the I-65 Corridor, and indeed all of Kentucky on a global basis. Such repositioning/re-branding can lead to further opportunities for the community to grow in terms of new retail, dining, industrial development, and job creation. Recommendation: 1. Develop a steering committee of community leaders to examine this issue to determine how to proceed in a timely manner to fully maximize the opportunities currently presented by BOSK Page | 201 MSA Future Planning As part of the MSA boundary review process previously described in this report, community leaders should immediately recognize that the previously proposed (and rejected) OMB rule which would require a minimum urban core population of at least 100,000 people could again be proposed (and accepted), and, if the Elizabethtown urban population falls below 100,000 that the community could see its current MSA designation changed to that of Micropolitan Statistical Area, which will lead to a reduction in federal grants; as such, community leaders should immediately begin looking at opportunities which will enable Elizabethtown to increase its urban core population to at least 100,000 people Recommendations: 1. Recognize a possible future threat through a change in OMB MSA designation rules which would raise the urban core population requirement from 50,000 to 100,000 people a. Identify opportunities to increase Elizabethtown’s urban core population from 73,000 to 100,000 + 2. At the appropriate time in 2028, monitor U.S. OMB’s interim review of existing MSA boundary delineation and commuting patterns to ensure that the Elizabethtown – Fort Knox MSA is allowed to expand appropriately (the addition of Grayson and Hart counties alone would elevate the MSA’s population to over 200,000 and create a whole new market opportunity) Page | 202 Community Growth Management As indicated in the impact section of this report, significant growth is coming to the MSA, most all of it centered on the City of Elizabethtown and Hardin County. This growth brings new opportunities for both jurisdictions to examine how each intends to proceed when it comes to managing this growth and providing vital services in the most cost-efficient manner. Neither jurisdiction wants “hap-hazard” growth when it comes to new housing, commercial, and retail developments. At the same time, many of the thousands of newcomers who relocate to the region will do so with an expectation that efficient public services will be provided (including utilities, law enforcement, planning and zoning, EMS, and full-time professional firefighting). Given current revenue streams, the City and the County need to evaluate just how they can manage the coming growth, and implement smart growth strategies (e.g., is the County in position to provide full time fire protection, enhanced EMS service, develop new parks and other quality of life needs?). This, then, raises the overall issues of annexation and/or unified government (both of which were identified and supported during the key stakeholder engagement part of this impact project). Inclusion within the City of Elizabethtown, through annexation or unified government brings certain benefits to residents: Issue Solution/Benefit Thousands will be relocating to Elizabethtown and This raises the issues of annexation or unified Hardin County government, either of which will bring benefits: Neither jurisdiction wants “hap-hazard” growth 1. Professional, full-time police protection 2. Professional, full-time fire protection Given current revenue streams, the City and the 3. Attainment of higher insurance (ISO) ratings County need to evaluate how each can manage the 4. Corresponding decreases in insurance coming growth and implement smart growth premiums strategies 5. Expanded tax basis – the larger the jurisdiction, the lower the unit cost to For example, is the County in position to provide full provide services time fire protection, enhanced EMS service, develop 6. Access to multiple tax streams, such as new parks and other QOL needs? property, occupational, lodging, restaurant, etc. 7. Expansion of alcoholic beverage sales area to correspond with a growing city Page | 203 (Conversely, Hardin County, and cities like Radcliff have current limitations – due to state law – which limit their ability to levy certain types of taxes to help pay for needed public services and infrastructure as the overall community grows.) Recommendations: 1. City of Elizabethtown should consider the following: a. Annex immediate surrounding unincorporated suburban area b. Annex area south to new I-65/Ring Road interchange c. Annex the BOSK facility to provide future funding for City services, OR, 2. City and County should consider creating joint commission to explore benefits and develop plan for unified government to include City and unincorporated Hardin County to present to voters 3. Eliminate height moratorium on buildings in the City to allow for denser residential and commercial development, while respecting the historic Public Square area, recognizing increasing land costs 4. Plan utility expansion accordingly a. Consider the development of an impact fee to fund future infrastructure development What might unified government look like today in Hardin County? City of Elizabethtown 31,892 Hardin County 111,862 Communities Expected to Opt Out of Unification: Radcliff 22,953 Vine Grove 6,880 West Point 952 Sonora 565 Subtotal (31,350) Elizabethtown/Hardin County (unincorporated) 80,512 The preceding chart illustrates the population of a unified government jurisdiction as described above, (this does NOT include the thousands of expected newcomers). Elizabethtown would become the third largest city in Kentucky (it currently ranks 9th). Another important consideration is the streamlining of government services which could occur with unified government. The previous study conducted on unified government for Hardin County indicated that 94 existing government jurisdictions (e.g., departments, fire departments, planning departments, boards and commissions, etc.) could be reduced to nine departments to provide the efficient delivery of government services. Page | 204 Quality of Life Recommendations: 1. Build upon past success by reviewing current City design guidelines, planning and zoning requirements and amend where needed to ensure that future development will result in an overall aesthetic making the City the most attractive in Kentucky in which to live; this would include building design, lighting, landscaping, streetscapes, etc. 2. Build upon the excellent work underway in Downtown Elizabethtown by identifying other downtown areas which are both historic in nature yet growing and accommodating of both historic structures, the building of newer, more modern (and taller) structures with parking garages with a net result of a strong, vibrant downtown core a. Bentonville, AR b. Bowling Green, KY c. Greenville, SC 3. Build upon the existing retail shopping district along North Dixie Avenue by replacing Towne Mall with a lifestyle center with more upscale stores (similar to The Paddock in Louisville)…this could include a new hotel, new dining options, new residential options 4. Explore opportunities to develop new parks in unincorporated Hardin County 5. The City should investigate new/alternative funding systems to fund new infrastructure and recruit new developers, businesses and services with incentives, TIF districts, etc. Page | 205 Transportation Elizabethtown/Hardin County’s central location has been the cornerstone to the community’s success in growing and recruiting new business and industry to the area. Access to key transportation infrastructure is essential to the community’s growth going forward and directly contributes to new jobs and investment. There are several things the community can do to facilitate further and improved links to the transportation eco-system. Recommendations: 1. Interstates/Parkways a. Convert remainder of Western Kentucky Parkway to I-569 b. Convert Bluegrass Parkway to I-565 c. Monitor KYTC plans to widen I-65 from I-265 2. Develop community EV electric charging station plan 3. Support facilitation of funding for the feasibility study and expeditious construction of a new all- weather 8,000-foot runway at Elizabethtown Regional Airport (EKX) to support Fort Knox, capable of handling C-17 transport aircraft for U.S. Army training/deployment needs, thereby opening up new air cargo capability for the I-65 Corridor 4. Investigate regional transit system needs a. Hardin/surrounding counties b. Commuter rail along the I-65 Corridor (Louisville – Bowling Green) c. Future Louisville – Nashville Amtrak route 5. Recruit Uber and Lyft rideshare services to the area Page | 206 Workforce Recruitment Recommendations: 1. Recognizing the need to source thousands of workers to fill the new positions at BlueOval SK – and the additional direct and indirect jobs which will follow, the community should work with BOSK to develop a workforce development campaign in areas outside of the immediate region, encouraging those who are looking for new employment opportunities to relocate to the Elizabethtown metro area 2. Along with this concept, consider (as other growing communities have done) the development of some type of incentive program to encourage workers to relocate Community Leadership/Future Regional Planning & Project Facilitation Many of the above referenced goals and objectives will require thoughtful consideration. If the community agrees with many of these and wishes to pursue implementation, it will require a platform from which to advocate, plan, and implement the ideas incorporated in the goals. How the community (and region) decide to do this will set the tone (literally) for the next 50 years. The community and the region need to develop a new platform, commonly found in other successful, larger regions which can serve as the catalyst for strategic planning, collaboration and project implementation. Recommendation: 1. Develop new central platform which further integrates existing groups for the purpose of catalyzing strategic planning, community collaboration, community visioning, and, project implementation This platform can take many shapes and be either created from “scratch,” or developed as an adjunct to one or more existing organizations, including (1) a build out of the Hardin County Chamber’s Presidents Circle, (2) a new, stand-alone entity, or (3) another concept, such as a civic council found in larger markets. The platform can address the following areas as shown in the chart below: Page | 207 How to get there: • Consider other groups to be added (e.g., tourism, etc.) • Develop steering committee to fully evaluate concept/need • Develop Mission Statement/Goals & Objectives • Build out Hardin County Chamber of Commerce’s Presidents Council, or, • Consider civic council concept, or, • Something else Page | 208, the project is estimated to:

  • Generate $1.6 billion in construction payroll.
  • Create 5,000 jobs by the end of 2025.
  • Require 3,100 additional housing units to accommodate new workers.

Top Five MSAs for Construction Growth (2018–2023):

Metro Area CAGR (%) Average Contribution (Percentage Points)
Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY 14.4 0.45
Clarksville, TN-KY 10.8 0.03
Punta Gorda, FL 10.6 1.12
Jacksonville, NC 10.2 0.32
The Villages, FL 10.1 1.23

Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Growth (2018–2023)

The real estate, rental, and leasing sector also showed robust growth in many regions, with 209 MSAs experiencing positive growth during the five-year period. The Villages, FL, recorded the highest CAGR at 14.1%, reflecting its status as the nation’s largest community designed for an aging population.

Other MSAs like Jonesboro, AR, saw significant real estate growth due to proximity to Arkansas State University, while Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX, benefited from a population influx because of its thriving tech economy.

Top Five MSAs for Real Estate Growth (2018–2023):

Metro Area CAGR (%) Average Contribution (Percentage Points)
The Villages, FL 14.1 3.6
Jonesboro, AR 12.1 1.2
Twin Falls, ID 10.8 1.1
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX 10.7 1.4
El Centro, CA 10.6 0.6

Visit NAHB’s dashboard for additional data and visualizations on demographics, housing market and the economy for all metro areas.

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