Fairfield Public Schools projects 300-student enrollment growth over next decade; MP Planning Group forecasts 3.4% increase with highest impact at Fairfield Woods Middle School

May 17, 2025 (Journal Inquirer) –

May 17—FAIRFIELD — Public school enrollment is projected to grow by over 300 students in the next decade, according to a report by the school district's planning consultant.

While student enrollment has declined at Fairfield Public Schools by nearly 12% — or more than 1,200 students — since the early 2010s, MP Planning Group, LLC predicts a downward trend will continue for the next two years before rebounding to a few hundred students shy of 2019-20 enrollment. MP Planning Group's latest 10-year enrollment projections are based on population, childbirth and real estate data.

"I think the data continue to support what we as a board have been seeing on the ground for some time: that Fairfield remains a very attractive place for families to raise children," Fairfield Board of Education Chair Jeff Peterson said. "And while some towns in our state have had to grapple with notable decreases in enrollment, Fairfield's numbers remain firm-to-growing because of the attractiveness of our community."

The effect of the anticipated increase of nearly 3.4% over the next decade would be most pronounced at Fairfield Woods Middle School (13.4%) and the Roger Sherman (9.4%) and McKinley (7%) elementary schools, according to MP Planning Group . Those projections show enrollment above building capacity at McKinley, Fairfield's most crowded school, which neighbors several upcoming housing developments.

MP Planning Group reports that 61% of the housing units approved or under construction in Fairfield are in McKinley's attendance zone.

State data shows 470 students enrolled at McKinley the last two school years. The school has a "functional capacity" of 504, according to the school district's facilities plan. That number could reach 519 in the 2031-32 school year, according to MP Planning Group .

Fairfield's school board has raised concern about the strains housing development could inflict on its congested school buildings and has requested the Town Plan and Zoning Commission to better incorporate school facilities in the draft of Fairfield's 10-year planning document.

Peterson said a lack of land to build new facilities poses a "major challenge" for Fairfield and leaves the district with making the most of what it has. He said McKinley hosts 25 classrooms for K-5 students — one more than it was built to house.

"In short, as things stand, multifamily development may continue to funnel more children into our most crowded facilities," Peterson said in an email.

Fairfield's former Planning Director Jim Wendt , who retired last month, has said the number of residential units in Fairfield has increased by over 27% in the past 50 years, while enrollment has declined by nearly 21% during the same time frame.

Ten multifamily housing developments that have added 659 units to Fairfield since 2014 brought 48 students to the public school system, according to MP Planning Group . That equals about .07 students per unit. Wendt said the number of children per residential unit has dropped by 38% over the past several decades.

State data shows Fairfield's district-wide student enrollment totaled 9,139 this school year. That would be the lowest level in more than a decade based on MP Planning Group's numbers. Fairfield's total student enrollment reached a 10,360 peak in 2012-13, according to the group. The decline since then is on par with trends across Connecticut , where public school enrollment is at a 10-year low, down by about 6%.

Fairfield's enrollment could climb back to 9,474 students in 2033-34 before dipping to 9,449 the following school year, according to MP Planning Group . In 2019-20, there were 9,671 students enrolled at Fairfield Public Schools .

The projected numbers are MP Planning Group's "medium" projection, released alongside "high" and "low" estimates. The group credits the "medium" numbers as the most likely direction for enrollment because they're consistent with housing trends, demographics and the amount of students phasing into the district. The group encouraged the district to continue monitoring the projections if demographics or housing trends shift.

The low estimate projects 9,115 students in the school district by 2034-35, and the high estimate projects 9,798 students.

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