April 7, 2025 (Marketplace) –
On Monday, we'll get the Federal Reserve's February report on consumer credit — that's borrowing on all different kinds of loans, like mortgages, credit cards, auto and student loans.
Consumer credit was up 4.3% in January, after rising by double that in December.
Here's the glass-half-empty scenario, brought to you by Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman "Credit card balances are at record highs, up more than 50% from 2021."
Delinquency rates have been rising since 2022, and more than 10% of credit card bills are more than 90 days late.
"We're seeing more people using cards just to get by for groceries and gas," Rossman said.
OK, now for the glass-slightly-more-full perspective: "Overall levels of debt-to-income — it looks pretty good," said Curt Long, deputy chief economist at America's Credit Unions.
Most consumers can still afford to keep up, even with interest rates topping 20%. But that could change, he warned "if the labor market really starts to deteriorate." Delinquencies tend to rise in lock-step with unemployment.
And Ted Rossman's biggest worry? "Auto loans. Delinquencies there are worse than they were during the financial crisis."
People really try to pay that bill first. Because if you don't, they repossess.
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