April 17, 2025 (press release) –
CREA released its previous forecast on January 15. While it was too early to incorporate the potential and significant downside risks of a trade war into the forecast at that time, the forecast did state that tariffs targeting the Canadian economy would put what had been expected to be a recovery hear for housing in Canada in jeopardy.
With buyers increasingly fleeing to, or remaining on, the sidelines amid tariff uncertainty, and with the associated economic damage only beginning, sales have continued to fall. Prices in some parts of the country are following suit.
Since CREA briefly paused forecasting at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, this latest CREA forecast constitutes the largest revision in between quarterly forecasts on record going back to the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
Amid ongoing unpredictability and given the fact that it is still far from clear what interest rates will do this year amid a potential stagflation, all forecasts continue to be subject to unprecedented levels of uncertainty.
At this point, some 482,673 residential properties are forecast to trade hands via Canadian MLS® Systems in 2025, representing a 0.02% decline (no change) from 2024. This represents a large downward revision to the 8.6% increase previously forecasted in January.
The national average home price is forecast to decrease a slight 0.3% on an annual basis to $687,898 in 2025, which is about $30,000 lower than forecast back in early January. British Columbia and Ontario are expected to see small declines in average home prices, while in other provinces, expected increases in average home prices have been scaled back to the 3% to 5% range for 2025.
In 2026, national home sales are forecast to improve by 2.9% to 496,487. Sales would fail to crack the half million mark for the fourth straight year. Historically, since 2007, national home sales have surpassed 500,000 units seven times. The national average home price is forecast to edge up by 1.2% from 2025 to $696,074 in 2026.
Each quarter, CREA updates its forecast for home sales activity and average home prices via Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations. CREA’s next forecast will be published on Tuesday, July 15, 2025.
* All content is copyrighted by Industry Intelligence, or the original respective author or source. You may not recirculate, redistribute or publish the analysis and presentation included in the service without Industry Intelligence's prior written consent. Please review our terms of use.