US corporate economists upbeat about prospects for economic growth in next year, less optimistic about hiring in survey taken before US government shutdown by National Assn. for Business Economics

Cindy Allen

Cindy Allen

October 21, 2013 () – Survey: US corporate economists see growing economy despite rising oil prices, interest rates

Despite uncertainty in Washington and rising oil prices and interest rates, companies are upbeat on the prospects for economic growth in the next year, according to a quarterly survey of business economists.

But economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics weren't as optimistic about hiring, according to the survey released Monday. Only 27 percent reported rising employment at their firms from July through September, down from 29 percent in the second quarter. And 37 percent expected their companies to expand payrolls in the next six months, down from 39 percent in the second quarter.

The slower hiring occurred even as sales and profit margins grew during the third quarter, according to the survey.

Still, optimism about future economic growth remained strong last quarter. Almost 70 percent of the economists in the survey predicted gross domestic product growth of 2-to-3 percent, with another 19 percent expecting growth of 1-to-2 percent. The figures are nearly identical to those from the second-quarter survey, released in July.

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate from April through June, an improvement from the first three months of the year. But many economists worry that the growth rate may be slowing.

The NABE surveyed 65 of its member economists between Sept. 16 and Oct. 1, with most of the survey finished prior to the partial government shutdown that began Oct. 1. The economists work for companies from a variety of industries, including manufacturing, transportation and utilities, finance, retail and other services.

Among the findings:

— Sales growth accelerated in the third quarter. Forty-two percent of the economists reported rising sales at their companies, up from 35 percent in July. Only 12 percent reported falling sales, down from 15 percent in July.

— Profit margins also rebounded. One-third of the economists said margins were up at their firms, up from 21 percent in July and the highest percentage in more than a year. Those reporting falling profit margins fell to 19 percent, down from 25 percent in the second quarter.

— Only 16 percent of economists said their firms were raising wages and salaries, down from 19 percent in July and 31 percent in April.

— Most economists, 81 percent, said the Affordable Care Act had no impact on employment during the past three months. But a "sizeable minority," 18 percent, reported a negative impact. And 22 percent expected a negative impact on employment in the next year, compared with only 2 percent expecting a positive impact. The responses also suggested a small shift toward more part-time and fewer full-time employees, according to the survey.

— Most economists, 80 percent, reported no impact on their businesses in the third quarter from rising long-term interest rates, according to the survey.

But a quarter of the economists expect rising interest rates and increasing oil prices to drag on sales during the next 12 months.

Twenty-five percent expect a negative impact from rising rates, but 62 percent expect no impact.

Also, 25 percent of panelists expect rising oil prices to hurt sales in the next year more than in the past three months, but a majority, 64 percent, expects no impact.

AS-image © 2024 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Share:

About Us

We deliver market news & information relevant to your business.

We monitor all your market drivers.

We aggregate, curate, filter and map your specific needs.

We deliver the right information to the right person at the right time.

Our Contacts

1990 S Bundy Dr. Suite #380,
Los Angeles, CA 90025

+1 (310) 553 0008

About Cookies On This Site

We collect data, including through use of cookies and similar technology ("cookies") that enchance the online experience. By clicking "I agree", you agree to our cookies, agree to bound by our Terms of Use, and acknowledge our Privacy Policy. For more information on our data practices and how to exercise your privacy rights, please see our Privacy Policy.