CEPEA: Brazilian soybean prices in state of Paraná up 5.93% month-over-month to 48.60 reais/60-kg bag in February; exports up 52.02% to 1.56 million tons--a February record

Andrew Rogers

Andrew Rogers

Mar 5, 2012 – Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada (Cepea)

PIRACICABA, Brazil , March 5, 2012 (press release) – Week after week, it seems that estimates for the soybean season in Brazil, mainly in the South, need to be revised down. Despite recent rains, crops do not signal improvement and the yield may be even lower than previous forecasts. However, in one same region, crops may display distinct conditions, turning it difficult to make estimates. Meanwhile, prices kept the upward trend in Brazil in February.

In Rio Grande do Sul state, the harvesting has not started until late February; however, low soil humidity and high temperatures verified since late 2011 have damaged the crops, which may not be possible to reverse with recent rains, frustrating expectations of a satisfactory yield.

In Paraná, data from Seab/Deral (Secretariat of Agricultural Products Supply of Paraná state) released in late February indicate that losses in the western area of the state may reach 57% on average and, in the central-western region, 42%.

In the Southeastern region of Brazil, São Paulo producers are optimistic with the recent start of the harvesting.

Trades in the Brazilian market were sluggish in late February, due to the carnaval holiday.

In the accumulated of February, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná state – reference for trades in the Brazilian market) for soybean increased 5.93% and closed at 48.60 reais or 28.32 dollars per 60-kilo bag on Feb. 29. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for the product delivered at Paranaguá port upped 4.73% in the same period, and closed at 50.50 reais or 29.43 dollars per 60-kilo bag.

According to Secex, in February 2012, soybean shipments totaled 1.56 million tons, 52.02% above that registered in January and a record for February.

As for the soy meal, 996 thousand tons were shipped in February, 5.22% lower than in January 2012 and a record for February. Soy oil exports totaled 93 thousand tons, an increase of 6.1% in relation to January.

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