Australia's rice production to grow 554.5% to 898,600 tonnes by 2014/2015, report says; milk output to rise 1.3% to 9.3 million tonnes in 2011/2012; sugar exports to fall 31% year-over-year to 2.4 million tonnes in 2010/2011

Andrew Rogers

Andrew Rogers

Nov 3, 2011 – Business Wire

DUBLIN , November 3, 2011 (press release) – Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Australia Agribusiness Report Q4 2011" report to their offering. The wettest year on record in 2010 should boost yields and output significantly of numerous agriculture commodities such as rice, cotton, livestock and dairy over the next two years. For some crops such as wheat, production patterns are also expected to return to more normal patterns. A higher Australian dollar should boost export values and keep agricultural exports as an important contributor to the country's earnings.

Key Forecasts

Rice Production growth to 2014/15: 554.5% to 898,600 tonnes. Weather-permitting, we expect the Australian rice sector to expand considerably although it will still remain below 2005/06 levels.
Wheat Production growth to 2014/15: 27.6% to 27.9 tonnes. Australia will remain an important player in the wheat market, as the fourth largest exporter in the world.
2011 Real GDP Growth: 1.8% (down from 2.6% in 2010; predicted to average 2.4% from 2010 to 2015).
2011 Real Interest Rate (% ave): 5.1% (Down from 5.6% in 2010).

Industry Developments

Forecasts for fluid milk output to grow by 1.4% and 1.3% to 9.1mn tonnes and 9.3mn tonnes in 2010/11 and 2011/12 respectively. These growth rates are markedly higher than the average growth rate of -15.2% between 2002/03 and 2009/10. We believe that this improvement in milk production comes on the back of better pasture conditions after the record floods in Australia in Q110.

Australia accounted for roughly 7% of world sugar exports in 2009/10, making it the third largest exporter globally. For 2010/11, exports are expected to dip on the back of the weaker crop. According to ABARES, export volumes are projected to fall by 31% to 2.4mn tonnes, in contrast to an average of 3.7mn tonnes between 2004/05 and 2009/10.

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