Global broiler meat production to rise 3% year-over-year to 83.1 million tons in 2012, driven by strong domestic demand in China, Brazil; growth will be slowed by rising feed costs, lower U.S. production, USDA says
November 3, 2011
Global production is forecast up nearly 3 percent to 83.1 million tons, driven by strong domestic demand in China and Brazil. However, growth will be slower than the previous two years given the rising cost of feed and a slowdown in U.S. production.
Slight Reductions for the United States and Mexico
The United States, the world’s largest broiler meat producer, is forecast to decline 1 percent to 16.6 million tons, as lower broiler prices and relatively high costs constrain profitability. Relatively high production costs are also forecast to adversely impact Mexico’s production, down 1 percent to 2.9 million tons.
Brazil and China Propel World Expansion
Brazil and China are both forecast up 5 percent to 13.6 and 13.8 million tons respectively. Both are driven by stronger domestic demand, greater disposable income, economic growth, an expanding middle class and competitive prices which favor poultry over red meats. Brazil is also benefiting from more stable production costs due to ample feed supplies.
In China, expansion is supported by lower rates of reported disease and improving economies of scale through continuing vertical integration. Rising broiler meat prices will be more than offset by relatively high feed costs. A larger inventory of grandparent- generation (GPG) breeding broilers is paving the way for expanded and more efficient commercial production.
Russian Support Leads to Greater Output
Subsidized feed costs, import restrictions and continued investment are forecast to drive Russia production 9 percent higher to 2.8 million tons. Continuing reductions in tariff rates quota (TRQ) volumes will limit imports and therefore support elevated prices for domestic producers.
Increased Global Demand Boosts Output by Minor Suppliers Robust profitability, strong investment and rising domestic and foreign demand has stimulated production in Argentina, Thailand, Turkey and Ukraine.
Global exports are forecast 5 percent stronger to a record of 9.6 million tons with greater demand from emerging markets, most notably the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Sub Saharan Africa.
U.S. exports are forecast to rebound 2 percent to 3.0 million tons as growth is expected in the Mexican and Asian markets (South Korea and Hong Kong). Mounting demand from emerging markets particularly in Sub Saharan Africa will continue to support expanded shipments. However, exports to Russia are constrained and are likely to decline due to the lower TRQ quantity.
Brazil remains the leading exporter climbing 5 percent to 3.5 million tons. The Middle East will be the primary driver for export expansion, fueled by anticipated economic growth and a rising population. Brazil is able to ship significant quantities of whole birds as well as halal product. The largest poultry processor and exporter (Brasil Foods) is constructing a processing plant in the UAE which is expected to generate demand for imports. Shipments to Venezuela are expected to expand, despite commercial challenges.
The EU is forecast at 1.1 million tons, up 2 percent. Additional expansion of exports is limited by high feed costs, escalating competition and fading shipments to Russia due to a lower TRQ volume.
China and Thailand continue to be constrained by disease related restrictions, and thus are limited to shipping prepared/preserved products. Key destinations for China are likely to remain Japan, Hong Kong and Malaysia. In addition to Asian markets, Thailand will continue to benefit from its access to the EU. China and Thailand are expected grow 9 percent to 445,000 and 500,000 tons respectively.
Turkey gains 27 percent to 193,000 tons, primarily on Middle East demand (Iraq and Iran) as domestic production continues to grow, generating more exportable supplies.
TURKEY MEAT: 2012 FORECAST OVERVIEW
World production is virtually unchanged at 5.3 million tons. Brazil production is forecast up 5 percent, and offset by less production in the EU and U.S., forecast down 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
Lackluster import demand will keep world trade flat. EU, Brazil and Canada exports are forecast to remain relatively stable. A 5 percent drop for U.S. exports is forecast based largely on soft demand from several markets. China imports are forecast higher as elevated domestic prices for pork and broiler meat make turkey meat a price competitive alternative.