Share of US homebuyers looking to move to a different metro at record 33.9% in August, up from 32.6% in Q2; San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York saw the most homebuyers looking to leave while Miami, Sacramento, San Diego saw the highest inflow: Redfin

Sample article from our Housing & Economy

SEATTLE , September 20, 2022 (press release) –

High mortgage rates, persistent inflation and economic woes are making expensive parts of the country less attractive and relatively affordable places more popular

A record 33.9% of Redfin.com users nationwide looked to move from one metro to another in July and August, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s up from 32.6% in the second quarter and about 26% before the pandemic.

The U.S. housing market has slowed considerably from the height of the pandemic homebuying frenzy, and home sales are down 20% from a year ago. But the share of relocating buyers out of all buyers is at its highest level since at least 2017, when Redfin started tracking migration data.

“The overall slowdown and the popularity of relocating are both due to high home prices and mortgage rates that have doubled since last year,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Six percent mortgage rates are exacerbating already-high home prices and motivating homebuyers–especially remote workers–to leave expensive areas for more affordable ones. Persistent inflation and slumping stocks are also cutting into buyers’ budgets, making relatively affordable areas even more attractive.”

Homebuyers are leaving expensive coastal areas at higher rates than a year ago

More homebuyers left the Bay Area than any other metro in July and August. That’s determined by net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to leave a metro than move in. Next come Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Boston, all expensive job centers highly populated by remote workers with the flexibility to relocate.

Migration out of four of those five places–Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Boston–increased from a year earlier. That’s partly because of high mortgage rates and economic woes, including inflation, making it more difficult to afford homes in those places.

The number of homebuyers looking to move out of the Bay Area declined, likely because it’s one of the only parts of the U.S. where home prices are dropping year over year, giving buyers in the perennially expensive area a bit of relief. Prices fell 8% year over year in San Francisco, 1.6% in Oakland and 0.2% in San Jose.

Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations

Rank

Metro*

Net Outflow, July and August 2022

Net Outflow, July and August 2021

Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, July and August 2022

Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, July and August 2021

Top Destination

Top Out-of-State
Destination

 

1

San Francisco, CA

40,432

52,854

24.1%

25.2%

Sacramento, CA

Seattle, WA

2

Los Angeles, CA

34,832

30,754

20.0%

18.1%

San Diego, CA

Las Vegas, NV

3

New York, NY

26,786

25,725

28.7%

27.3%

Philadelphia, PA

Philadelphia, PA

4

Washington, DC

20,542

16,405

17.7%

15.1%

Salisbury, MD

Salisbury, MD

5

Boston, MA

11,543

9,253

19.8%

16.8%

Portland, ME

Portland, ME

6

Chicago, IL

6,883

5,504

16.6%

12.3%

Los Angeles, CA

Los Angeles, CA

7

Detroit, MI

5,330

3,300

34.4%

28.2%

Cleveland, OH

Cleveland, OH

8

Seattle, WA

4,143

3,766

17.1%

14.5%

Los Angeles, CA

Los Angeles, CA

9

Minneapolis, MN

3,740

1,777

31.0%

21.8%

Chicago, IL

Chicago, IL 

10

Denver, CO

3,739

4,662

24%

20.1%

Chicago, IL

Chicago, IL

*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in July and August 2022

†Among the two million users sampled for this analysis only

 

Warm Sun Belt metros are most popular for relocating homebuyers

Miami was the most popular migration destination, continuing a year-plus streak of the South Florida metro taking the number-one spot. Popularity is measured by net inflow, or how many more Redfin.com users looked to move into an area than leave.

Next come two California metros: Sacramento, perennially popular for homebuyers moving from one metro to another, and San Diego, which only recently jumped onto the list of most popular destinations. Las Vegas and Tampa, FL round out the top five. They’re followed by Phoenix, Cape Coral, FL, North Port, FL, Portland, ME and San Antonio, TX.

Nine of the 10 most popular destinations are warm-weather metros located in the Sun Belt (Portland is the exception). Eight of the 10 have median sale prices below $500,000; Sacramento ($570,000) and San Diego ($800,000) are the exceptions. And six of them are located in places with no state income tax, which lowers the overall cost of living. Although home prices in many of the popular destinations have increased significantly throughout the pandemic, they’re still more affordable than the places homebuyers are coming from. The typical home in Las Vegas, for instance, sold for $416,000 in August, half of the $845,000 median in Los Angeles, the number-one origin for people moving in.

Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins

Rank

Metro*

Net Inflow, July and August 2022

Net Inflow, July and August 2021

Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, July and August 2022

Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, July and August 2021

Top Origin

Top Out-of-State Origin

 

1

Miami, FL

8,845

10,435

33.2%

33.1%

New York, NY

New York, NY

2

Sacramento, CA

8,504

8,327

43.9%

42.1%

San Francisco, CA

Reno, NV

3

San Diego, CA

7,811

3,598

33.6%

28.4%

Los Angeles, CA

Seattle, WA

4

Las Vegas, NV

7,323

6,739

47.2%

41.8%

Los Angeles, CA

Los Angeles, CA

5

Tampa, FL

7,145

6,240

48.1%

46.9%

Orlando, FL

New York, NY

6

Phoenix, AZ

6,447

8,411

36.0%

35.4%

Los Angeles, CA

Los Angeles, CA

7

Cape Coral, FL

4,951

4,234

68.5%

69.4%

Chicago, IL

Chicago, IL

8

North Port, FL

4,700

3,983

67.3%

67.8%

Chicago, IL

Chicago, IL

9

Portland, ME

3,876

3,692

64.9%

65.2%

Boston, MA

Boston, MA

10

San Antonio, TX

3,235

4,396

38.9%

42.0%

Austin, TX

Los Angeles, CA 

*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in July and August 2022

†Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the two million users sampled for this analysis only

 

To read the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/august-2022-housing-migration-trends

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.


View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220920005465/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:
Erin Osgood, 206-588-6863
press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

Released September 20, 2022

 

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