May 17, 2023
(press release)
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Novo Nordisk’s leading drug Ozempic (semaglutide) is forecast to demonstrate a growth of 23% in its sales to $12.5 billion in 2023, consolidating its position as the dominant market leader, as projected sales will be 54% greater than closest competitor Trulicity (dulaglutide) by Eli Lilly, which anticipates sales of $8 billion, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. Ozempic is a recombinant peptide indicated to lower the risk of major cardiovascular events, such as strokes, heart attacks, or mortality, among adults with type 2 diabetes and established heart disease. Originally granted approval in its largest market, the US, in 2017, Ozempic has subsequently obtained approval for three distinct dosages, 0.5mg, 1.0mg, and 2.0mg, for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Ikram Triki, Drugs Intelligence Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “In 2022, US sales of Ozempic contributed to 65% of global sales; this is expected to continue, with the US market forecast to continue capturing the majority of sales, generating $71 billion between 2023 and 29. It is forecast that Ozempic will sustain its sales growth over the next five years, with an expected annual sales figure of $17 billion in 2029. This represents a significant 83% increase in sales during 2022–29, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9%.” Triki continues: “Novo Nordisk and Sanofi’s announcement in March 2023 to join Eli Lilly in major price reductions for pre-filled insulin pens and vials may suggest a potential shift in the dynamic insulin market. Ozempic’s significance in the evolving pharmaceutical landscape is evident through its increasing popularity as a next-generation medication for diabetes, with notable attention towards its off-label application as a weight-loss agent.” The substantial weight loss that patients achieve with Ozempic and other GLP1-targeting drugs makes insulin requirements lower for patients with type 2 diabetes, incentivizing both patients and healthcare practitioners to consider this medication. This change in insulin access within the US market will therefore play a crucial role in Ozempic’s commercial success and may contribute to the observed revenue growth. Triki concludes: “The significant sales growth of Ozempic reinforces its continued dominance in the type 2 diabetes market. As attitudes towards insulin access evolve, Ozempic is well-positioned to provide support to a greater number of patients suffering from type 2 diabetes, facilitating improvements in their quality of life.”
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