June 19, 2024
(press release)
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Demand, shipments to dip in 2024 amid pullback from high 2023 base prices, recover long term US demand for bread and bakery products is forecast to increase less than 1.0% per year in nominal terms through 2028, according to Bread & Bakery Products: United States, a report recently released by Freedonia Focus Reports. Population growth, rising disposable income levels, and the introduction of novel and healthy products will drive demand. Price increases will support gains in value terms, as industrial bakeries continue to invest in new capital equipment in order to deal with a shortage of labor and higher labor costs in the industry. Market maturity and ongoing concerns over the nutritional content of traditional bread and bakery products will curb faster growth. In addition, the popularity of homemade bread and baked goods will continue to strain demand, as will purchases from establishments that engage in retailing for immediate consumption (such as restaurants, which are excluded from the scope of this report). Demand is expected to fall 6.9% in 2024 from a high base in 2023 amid a decline in personal spending on bakery products as consumers shift spending towards more affordable options in the face of recent inflation. US shipments of bread and bakery products are forecast to see minimal annual declines through 2028. All losses will occur in 2024, as falling prices weigh on shipments in value terms. Further losses will be restrained by rising domestic demand and slight growth in prices over the rest of the forecast period. These and other key insights are featured in Bread & Bakery Products: United States. This report forecasts to 2028 US bread and bakery products demand and shipments in nominal US dollars at the manufacturer level. Total demand and shipments are segmented by type in terms of: To illustrate historical trends, total demand, total shipments, the various segments, and trade are provided in annual series from 2013 to 2023. Bread and rolls include both frozen and non-frozen products. Retailing for immediate consumption is excluded from this report. Re-exports of bread and bakery products are excluded from demand and trade figures. This report includes the results of a proprietary national online consumer survey of US adults (age 18+). This Freedonia Focus Reports National Online Consumer Survey has a sample size of approximately 1,500, screened for response quality, and representative of the US population on the demographic measures of age, gender, geographic region, race/ethnicity, household income, and the presence/absence of children in the household. More information about the report is available at: https://www.freedoniagroup.com/freedonia-focus/bread-bakery-products-united-states-ff10056.htm About Freedonia Focus Reports Each month, The Freedonia Group publishes over 20 new or updated Freedonia Focus Reports, providing fresh, unbiased analysis on a wide variety of markets and industries. Published in 20-30 pages, Focus Report coverage ranges from raw materials to finished manufactured goods and related services such as freight and construction. Additional Food & Beverage reports can be purchased at Freedonia Focus Reports. Analysis is intended to guide the busy reader through pertinent topics in rapid succession, including:
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