MACROECONOMY & END-USE MARKETS
Running tab of macro indicators: 8 out of 20
The number of new jobless claims rose by 13,000 to 242,000 during the week ending June 8. Continuing claims increased by 30,000 to 1.82 million, and the insured unemployment rate for the week ending June 1 was unchanged at 1.2%.
Month-on-month growth in consumer prices was flat in May as lower prices for energy, new vehicles, apparel, and transportation services offset higher prices in other segments. Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices were up 0.2%, the smallest monthly gain since October. On an annual basis, headline consumer prices were up 3.3% and core consumer prices were up by 3.4%. Both comparisons were lower than the previous two months.
Headline producer prices eased by 0.2% in May, led by lower prices for energy goods and transportation & warehousing services. Excluding food and energy, prices for core goods rose 0.3. Compared to a year ago, headline producer prices were up 2.2% (slightly lower than the April comparison) while core prices were up 3.2% Y/Y, the same as last month.
Import prices fell by 0.4% in May, the first monthly decline since December. The decline reflected lower prices for imported fuels and nonfuel imports. Export prices fell 0.6% as a decline in prices for nonagricultural exports offset a gain in agricultural export prices. Compared to a year ago, export prices were up 0.6% while import prices were higher by 1.1% Y/Y.
In April, non-mortgage consumer debt increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.5%. Revolving credit (e.g., credit cards) decreased at an annual rate of 0.4%, while nonrevolving credit (e.g., car and student loans) increased at an annual rate of 2.2%. Car loan and credit card data through February (the latest) show the climb in interest rates on new loans may have begun flattening in the first quarter though remain at historically high levels.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reached the highest reading of the year in May, up by 0.8 points to 90.5. Despite the gain, small business optimism remained below its historical average for a 29th consecutive month. The uncertainty index rose to its highest level since November 2020 and inflation remained the top business concern among business owners.
ENERGY
Oil prices were higher than a week ago but eased toward the end of the week following the Fed’s cautious rate outlook (only one rate cut in 2024) and an unexpected build in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories. U.S. natural gas prices rose compared to last week on the return of hot temperatures across much of the U.S. The combined rig count fell by six to 590 during the week ending June 7.
CHEMICALS
Chemical railcar loadings were up to 32,489 for the week ending June 8. Loadings were up 0.1% Y/Y (13-week MA), up 3.9% YTD/YTD and have been on the rise for seven of the last 13 weeks.
U.S. chemical exports were down 2.1% in April and down 2.4% YTD/YTD. The headline drop in chemical exports largely reflects a decline in petrochemical derivatives exports in April following a jump in March. Chemical imports rose 8.1% in April but were down 6.3% YTD/YTD. A decline in imports of inorganics was offset by gains in other chemical sectors. As imports rose notably and exports declined in April, the chemicals trade surplus dropped by $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion in April. The volume of plastic resin exports eased in April to 1.96 million metric tons, down from March’s record of 2.12 million metric tons. Plastic export volumes were 6.8% higher than last April, however.
U.S. production of major plastic resins totaled 8.2 billion pounds during April 2024, a decrease of 4.9% compared to the prior month, and an increase of 6.8% Y/Y, according to ACC statistics. Year-to-date production was 33.2 billion pounds, a 4.6% increase as compared to the same period in 2023.
Sales and captive (internal) use of major plastic resins totaled 8.4 billion pounds during April 2024, an increase of 0.5% compared to the prior month, and an increase of 13.7% Y/Y. Year-to-date sales and captive use were 33.5 billion pounds, a 9.3% increase Y/Y.
Chemical producer prices were higher for a fourth consecutive month in May, up by 0.3%. Higher prices for synthetic rubber, plastic resins, manufactured fibers, consumer products, coatings, and other specialty chemicals were partially offset by lower prices for agricultural chemicals and organic chemicals. Prices for inorganic chemicals were flat. Compared to a year ago, chemical prices were lower by 4.1%.
Import prices for chemicals were lower for a fourth consecutive month in May, off by 0.3%. Export prices were also lower by 0.6%. Compared to a year ago, chemical import prices were off 4.1% while export prices were lower by 3.3% Y/Y.
