TrueCar projects May new vehicle sales in US to drop 17% from a year ago to 1,221,790 units, with retail delivery of new cars, light trucks down 18% from a year ago to 1,062,452 units; demand cooling due to higher interest rates, jump in fuel prices
SANTA MONICA, California
,
May 26, 2022
(press release)
–
Increased affordability expected for used car prices in the month of May
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,221,790 units in May 2022, down 17% from a year ago and up 10% from April 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14 million, down 17% from May 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,062,452 units, down 18% from a year ago and up 7% from April 2022.
"This month we're continuing to see a struggle for supply among the industry however we're also now starting to see signs of demand adjusting. Higher interest rates combined with higher fuel prices present a headwind to demand cooling off, which may explain why average used list prices are decreasing, down 1.6% in May versus April 2022," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "In terms of price adjustments, compared to the beginning of the month we are seeing more vehicles being marked down than for the same period last year. This is truer for used where we are seeing over half of our used listings getting a downward price adjustment since the beginning of the month. This trend is led by the used full-size vehicle segment."
"This month we're not expecting fleet inventory to be down as much as retail, partly due to deferred fleet demand and the domestic OEM brands generally being in a better inventory situation than imported brands," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
Total sales for May 2022 are expected to be down 17% from a year ago and up 10% from April 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Fleet sales for May 2022 are expected to be down 6% from a year ago and up 34% from April 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Incentive spend is down 59% from last year.
Average transaction price is projected to be up 14% from a year ago and comparable to April 2022.
Total SAAR is expected to be down 17% from a year ago at 14 million units.
Used vehicle sales for May 2022 are expected to reach 3.1 million, down 19% from a year ago and down 8% from April 2022.
The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.1% compared to April 2022 at 4.8% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8%.
The average loan term on a new vehicle for May 2022 is about 71 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also about 71 months.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer
May 2022 Forecast
May 2021 Actual
Apr 2022 Actual
YoY % Change
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
29,590
39,204
28,678
-24.5%
-18.2%
3.2%
16.1%
Daimler
32,497
29,145
31,065
11.5%
20.8%
4.6%
17.7%
Ford
171,910
160,520
175,942
7.1%
16.0%
-2.3%
9.9%
GM
196,463
240,095
200,972
-18.2%
-11.4%
-2.2%
10.0%
Honda
84,399
176,815
93,250
-52.3%
-48.3%
-9.5%
1.8%
Hyundai
63,145
93,745
66,707
-32.6%
-27.0%
-5.3%
6.5%
Kia
54,806
80,298
59,063
-31.7%
-26.1%
-7.2%
4.4%
Nissan
64,910
110,374
74,668
-41.2%
-36.3%
-13.1%
-2.2%
Stellantis
139,300
182,966
143,078
-23.9%
-17.5%
-2.6%
9.5%
Subaru
47,475
56,558
45,748
-16.1%
-9.1%
3.8%
16.7%
Tesla
47,852
28,790
48,432
66.2%
80.1%
-1.2%
11.2%
Toyota
188,637
241,003
186,510
-21.7%
-15.2%
1.1%
13.8%
Volkswagen Group
51,907
72,527
45,949
-28.4%
-22.5%
13.0%
27.1%
Industry
1,221,790
1,586,748
1,254,597
-23.0%
-16.6%
-2.6%
9.6%
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer
May 2022 Forecast
May 2021 Actual
Apr 2022 Actual
YoY % Change
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
29,025
37,474
28,168
-22.5%
-16.1%
3.0%
15.9%
Daimler
31,451
27,938
30,430
12.6%
22.0%
3.4%
16.3%
Ford
127,065
124,561
143,183
2.0%
10.5%
-11.3%
-0.2%
GM
156,341
208,133
174,521
-24.9%
-18.6%
-10.4%
0.8%
Honda
83,371
170,217
92,860
-51.0%
-46.9%
-10.2%
1.0%
Hyundai
63,040
86,835
66,001
-27.4%
-21.4%
-4.5%
7.5%
Kia
50,714
72,881
56,866
-30.4%
-24.6%
-10.8%
0.3%
Nissan
53,846
87,667
61,645
-38.6%
-33.5%
-12.7%
-1.7%
Stellantis
111,246
162,041
118,354
-31.3%
-25.6%
-6.0%
5.7%
Subaru
46,221
55,170
44,042
-16.2%
-9.2%
4.9%
18.1%
Tesla
47,312
28,790
48,415
64.3%
78.0%
-2.3%
9.9%
Toyota
170,085
204,785
164,585
-16.9%
-10.0%
3.3%
16.3%
Volkswagen Group
51,118
67,738
45,293
-24.5%
-18.2%
12.9%
27.0%
Industry
1,062,452
1,402,283
1,120,603
-24.2%
-17.9%
-5.2%
6.7%
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer
May 2022 Forecast
May 2021 Actual
Apr 2022 Actual
YoY % Change
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
565
1,730
510
-67.3%
-64.6%
10.7%
24.6%
Daimler
1,046
1,207
635
-13.3%
-6.1%
64.6%
85.2%
Ford
44,845
35,959
32,759
24.7%
35.1%
36.9%
54.0%
GM
40,122
31,962
26,451
25.5%
36.0%
51.7%
70.6%
Honda
1,028
6,598
390
-84.4%
-83.1%
163.6%
196.5%
Hyundai
105
6,910
706
-98.5%
-98.4%
-85.1%
-83.3%
Kia
4,092
7,417
2,197
-44.8%
-40.2%
86.2%
109.5%
Nissan
11,064
22,707
13,023
-51.3%
-47.2%
-15.0%
-4.4%
Stellantis
28,054
20,925
24,724
34.1%
45.2%
13.5%
27.7%
Subaru
1,254
1,388
1,706
-9.6%
-2.1%
-26.5%
-17.3%
Tesla
540
-
17
3170.3%
3579.1%
Toyota
18,552
36,218
21,925
-48.8%
-44.5%
-15.4%
-4.8%
Volkswagen Group
789
4,789
656
-83.5%
-82.2%
20.2%
35.2%
Industry
159,338
184,465
133,994
-13.6%
-6.4%
18.9%
33.8%
Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer
May 2022 Forecast
May 2021 Actual
Apr 2022 Actual
YoY % Change
MoM % Change
BMW
1.9%
4.4%
1.8%
-56.7%
7.3%
Daimler
3.2%
4.1%
2.0%
-22.3%
57.4%
Ford
26.1%
22.4%
18.6%
16.4%
40.1%
GM
20.4%
13.3%
13.2%
53.4%
55.2%
Honda
1.2%
3.7%
0.4%
-67.4%
191.2%
Hyundai
0.2%
7.4%
1.1%
-97.7%
-84.3%
Kia
7.5%
9.2%
3.7%
-19.2%
100.7%
Nissan
17.0%
20.6%
17.4%
-17.1%
-2.3%
Stellantis
20.1%
11.4%
17.3%
76.1%
16.5%
Subaru
2.6%
2.5%
3.7%
7.6%
-29.1%
Tesla
1.1%
0.0%
0.0%
3209.9%
Toyota
9.8%
15.0%
11.8%
-34.6%
-16.3%
Volkswagen Group
1.5%
6.6%
1.4%
-77.0%
6.4%
Industry
13.0%
11.6%
10.7%
12.2%
22.1%
Total Market Share
Manufacturer
May 2022 Forecast
May 2021 Actual
Apr 2022 Actual
BMW
2.4%
2.5%
2.3%
Daimler
2.7%
1.8%
2.5%
Ford
14.1%
10.1%
14.0%
GM
16.1%
15.1%
16.0%
Honda
6.9%
11.1%
7.4%
Hyundai
5.2%
5.9%
5.3%
Kia
4.5%
5.1%
4.7%
Nissan
5.3%
7.0%
6.0%
Stellantis
11.4%
11.5%
11.4%
Subaru
3.9%
3.6%
3.6%
Tesla
3.9%
1.8%
3.9%
Toyota
15.4%
15.2%
14.9%
Volkswagen Group
4.2%
4.6%
3.7%
96.0%
95.3%
95.7%
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer
May 2022 Forecast
May 2021 Actual
Apr 2022 Actual
BMW
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
Daimler
3.0%
2.0%
2.7%
Ford
12.0%
8.9%
12.8%
GM
14.7%
14.8%
15.6%
Honda
7.8%
12.1%
8.3%
Hyundai
5.9%
6.2%
5.9%
Kia
4.8%
5.2%
5.1%
Nissan
5.1%
6.3%
5.5%
Stellantis
10.5%
11.6%
10.6%
Subaru
4.4%
3.9%
3.9%
Tesla
4.5%
2.1%
4.3%
Toyota
16.0%
14.6%
14.7%
Volkswagen Group
4.8%
4.8%
4.0%
96.1%
95.1%
95.9%
ATP
Manufacturer
May 2022 Forecast
May 2021 Actual
Apr 2022 Actual
YOY
MOM
BMW
$67,092
$60,621
$68,146
10.7%
-1.5%
Daimler
$65,924
$61,985
$68,337
6.4%
-3.5%
Ford
$51,037
$43,388
$49,070
17.6%
4.0%
GM
$50,566
$46,352
$50,420
9.1%
0.3%
Honda
$37,352
$32,145
$36,550
16.2%
2.2%
Hyundai
$36,958
$31,800
$37,190
16.2%
-0.6%
Kia
$35,091
$30,179
$34,719
16.3%
1.1%
Nissan
$36,156
$31,031
$35,810
16.5%
1.0%
Stellantis
$53,370
$46,593
$53,466
14.5%
-0.2%
Subaru
$35,583
$32,307
$34,908
10.1%
1.9%
Toyota
$39,073
$36,641
$39,957
6.6%
-2.2%
Volkswagen Group
$46,455
$43,928
$47,011
5.8%
-1.2%
Industry
$44,254
$38,694
$44,043
14.4%
0.5%
$5,560
$211
Incentives
Manufacturer
May 2022 Forecast
May 2021 Actual
Apr 2022 Actual
YOY
MOM
BMW
$1,117
$4,814
$1,309
-76.8%
-14.6%
Daimler
$1,452
$3,650
$1,354
-60.2%
7.2%
Ford
$1,435
$2,352
$1,458
-39.0%
-1.6%
GM
$1,677
$4,535
$1,926
-63.0%
-12.9%
Honda
$905
$2,133
$960
-57.6%
-5.7%
Hyundai
$704
$2,019
$775
-65.1%
-9.2%
Kia
$619
$2,483
$669
-75.1%
-7.5%
Nissan
$1,381
$3,698
$1,595
-62.7%
-13.5%
Stellantis
$1,892
$3,892
$1,925
-51.4%
-1.7%
Subaru
$737
$1,299
$719
-43.2%
2.5%
Toyota
$818
$2,246
$844
-63.6%
-3.0%
Volkswagen Group
$1,155
$3,846
$1,252
-70.0%
-7.8%
Industry
$1,251
$3,055
$1,327
-59.1%
-5.8%
-$1,804
-$77
Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer
May 2022 Forecast
May 2021 Actual
Apr 2022 Actual
YOY
MOM
BMW
1.7%
7.9%
1.9%
-79.0%
-13.3%
Daimler
2.2%
5.9%
2.0%
-62.6%
11.2%
Ford
2.8%
5.4%
3.0%
-48.1%
-5.4%
GM
3.3%
9.8%
3.8%
-66.1%
-13.2%
Honda
2.4%
6.6%
2.6%
-63.5%
-7.7%
Hyundai
1.9%
6.3%
2.1%
-70.0%
-8.6%
Kia
1.8%
8.2%
1.9%
-78.6%
-8.5%
Nissan
3.8%
11.9%
4.5%
-68.0%
-14.3%
Stellantis
3.5%
8.4%
3.6%
-57.5%
-1.5%
Subaru
2.1%
4.0%
2.1%
-48.5%
0.6%
Toyota
2.1%
6.1%
2.1%
-65.8%
-0.8%
Volkswagen Group
2.5%
8.8%
2.7%
-71.6%
-6.6%
Industry
2.8%
7.9%
3.0%
-64.2%
-6.2%
Revenue
Manufacturer
May 2022 Forecast
May 2021 Actual
Apr 2022 Actual
YOY
MOM
Industry
$54,068,972,589
$61,398,057,586
$55,256,423,309
-11.9%
-2.1%
(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.
For further information: TrueCar media email: pr@truecar.com
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