TrueCar expects January new vehicle sales to drop 9% from last year at 1,006,325 units, down 7% from December 2021, with fleet sales to fall 5% and new vehicle retail delivery down 10% at 893,077 units; industry conditions remain volatile

Sample article from our Automobile Industry

SANTA MONICA, California , January 28, 2022 (press release) –

Microchip shortage continues to challenge auto industry

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,006,325 units in January 2022, down 9% from a year ago and down 7% from December 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 15.3 million, down 9% from January 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 893,077 units, down 10% from a year ago and down 8% from December 2021.

"After nine months of consecutive increases in new vehicle transaction prices, we are finally seeing a slight decrease in January. While December often represents a peak due to a richer vehicle mix, at the brand level the declines could also point to a slight recovery in supply. As the supply of chips recovers we expect to see manufacturers balance their vehicle mix back to historic norms," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, industry conditions remain volatile and we'll need to see these and other trends continue for several months, which will likely take the bulk of the year."

"Last month we saw industry sales decline 25% year-over-year, this month we are expecting sales to be down 9%. We're cautiously optimistic due to the slight sales increase this month compared to the end of last year along with the small uptick in inventory, however the chip shortage will continue to affect the industry in 2022," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

Total sales for January 2022 are expected to be down 9% from a year ago and down 7% from December 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Fleet sales for January 2022 are expected to be down 5% from a year ago and on par with December 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Incentive spend is down 57% from last year.
Average transaction price is projected to be up 16% from a year ago and down about 2% from December 2021.
Total SAAR is expected to be down 9% from a year ago at 15.3 million units.
Used vehicle sales for January 2022 are expected to reach 2.9 million, down 9% from a year ago and down 2% from December 2021.
The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.
The average loan term on a new vehicle for January 2022 is 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 70 months.
Full year 2022 sales are expected at 15.4 million units

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Dan Rivard
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