Smart growth and investment in
Arizona
,
Colorado
,
New Mexico
and Nevada downtowns and main streets must occur now to secure the land that grows our food, according to
American Farmland Trust's
new report Farms Under Threat 2040: Choosing an Abundant Future and the accompanying web mapping tool.
AFT's Farms Under Threat research has shown that by 2040, as many as 1,486,341 acres of farmland may be lost to urban and low-density conversion across the four states. While this may seem small compared to the total amount of agricultural acreage in the region, most of that loss will be highly concentrated around urban centers experiencing rapid population growth, particularly in the
Albuquerque
,
Denver
,
Las Vegas
and
Phoenix
metro areas. This loss will disproportionately impact the region's most productive, versatile land, threaten the future for small and peri-urban farms and limit opportunities for new and beginning farmers.
By 2040, agriculture in the region will also be significantly constrained by water availability. Severe drought conditions will further deplete scarce irrigation resources. Couple those climatic factors with increased pressure from urban, low-density and solar development, and the land base will be squeezed from all sides.
Of the four states,
Arizona
will be the hardest hit, followed by
Colorado
,
New Mexico
and
Nevada
. In fact,
Arizona's
Maricopa County
is projected to lose the most farmland in the nation.
Colorado's
Broomfield County
is the nation's number-one county projected to convert the largest percentage of remaining agricultural land into development.
Nevada's
Clark County
is the nation's fifth-fastest to lose farmland.
Arizona
If recent trends continue, 444,500 acres of
Arizona's
farmland and ranchland will be paved over, fragmented, or converted to uses that jeopardize agriculture by 2040. That represents an area more than the size of
Phoenix
.
In the worst-case scenario of runaway sprawl,
Arizona
could lose as many as 518,700 acres of farmland.
56% of the conversion will occur on
Arizona's
best land.
By making smart growth choices and investing in farmland protection today,
Arizona
residents can save 216,100 acres of farmland and ranchland. That is the equivalent of saving 500 farms,
$99 million
in farm output and 700 jobs.
Maricopa
is the nation's most likely to lose farmland, followed by
Pinal County
(18th fastest in nation) and
Pima County
(42nd fastest in nation). This loss of farmland will impact
Arizona's
economy and food production.
According to the 2017 Census of Agriculture:
Arizona
remains a top state for vegetables and melons, ranking fifth out of all states.
Maricopa County
had the highest market value of products sold in the state, followed by
Yuma County
. Together with
Pinal County
, these three counties combined accounted for 83% of the total for the state.
The top three agricultural products by market value in
Arizona
represent 65% of all sales for the state. These were vegetables, melons, potatoes, and sweet potatoes followed by milk from cows and cattle and calves. Milk from cows is the top commodity for
Maricopa County
and it ranks sixth in the nation for all counties producing milk.
According to
Maricopa County's
Arizona Water Factsheet:
Located in the Sonoran Desert,
Maricopa County
receives less than 11 inches of rain per year. Despite the dryness, more than half of the state's population - some 4.5 million people - live in the county.
Until 1990, more water was used in the Phoenix AMA for agriculture than for cities. By 2019, half of all water was used by municipalities and only 30% was used for agriculture.
These water restrictions demonstrate another reason why
Arizona
must use smart growth practices to protect its valuable agricultural resources.
Colorado
If recent trends continue, 417,500 acres of
Colorado's
farmland and ranchland will be paved over, fragmented, or converted to uses that jeopardize agriculture by 2040. That represents an area more than four times larger than the city of
Denver
.
In the worst-case scenario of runaway sprawl,
Colorado
could lose as much as 525,300 acres of farmland.
53% of the conversion will occur on
Colorado's
best land.
By making smart growth choices and investing in farmland protection today,
Colorado
residents could save 258,100 acres of farmland and ranchland. That is the equivalent of saving 1,200 farms,
$53 million
in farm output, and 1,700 jobs.
The counties most likely to lose farmland are
El Paso
(first in state; 16th in nation), followed by
Douglas
(33rd in nation) and
Larimer
.
Colorado's
Broomfield County
is the nation's number-one county projected to convert the largest percentage of remaining agricultural land into development.
According to the
Colorado Farm Bureau
:
Colorado
agriculture is the second largest industry in the state, contributing over
40 billion dollars
to the economy each year through crops, feed, livestock, equipment, and more. Additionally, agriculture creates 170,000 jobs annually.
About 38,800 farms, spread across 31.8 million acres, call
Colorado
home. The Centennial State is the number-one producer for millet in the country and ranks in the top 10 for another 20 commodities that
Colorado
grows.
The drought continues to challenge
Colorado
agriculture, too.
Douglas County
saw its driest year to date over the past 128 years (January-
April 2022
), according to the Drought Index.
New Mexico
If recent trends continue, 204,965 acres of
New Mexico's
farmland and ranchland will be paved over, fragmented, or converted to uses that jeopardize agriculture by 2040. That represents an area more than six times the size of
Santa Fe
.
In the worst-case scenario of runaway sprawl,
New Mexico
could lose as much as 263,673 acres of farmland.
52% of the conversion will occur on
New Mexico's
best land.
By making smart growth choices and investing in farmland protection today,
New Mexico
residents can save 154,700 acres of farmland and ranchland. That is the equivalent of saving 254 farms,
$16 million
in farm output, and 485 jobs.
Hardest-hit counties are
Bernalillo
(first in state; 47th fastest in nation),
Colfax
and
Dona Ana
.
According to
New Mexico Department of Agriculture
:
Agriculture is one of the state's principal industries with cash receipts approaching
$3 billion
annually and directly supports over 23,000 jobs in the state.
New Mexico
is the seventh highest milk and eighth highest cheese producing state in the nation.
New Mexico's
individual dairy herds are the largest in the country with milk production per cow second only to
Arizona
. Milk production supports several of the biggest cheese manufacturing plants in the country.
New Mexico
also boasts the highest concentration of pecan production in the world and one of top three pecan producing states in the nation.
New Mexico
leads in cash receipts for pecan production with superior quality nuts and some of the largest orchards.
New Mexico's
agriculture includes onions, potatoes, pumpkins, watermelons, lettuce, cabbage, corn, and beans. The state supplies 85% of the nation's fresh onions during June and remains the country's largest producer of her most famous export - chile peppers.
Farmers and ranchers provide habitat for 75 percent of the state's wildlife, reports New Mexico Agriculture.
Nevada
If recent trends continue, 155,724 acres of
Nevada's
farmland and ranchland will be paved over, fragmented, or converted to uses that jeopardize agriculture by 2040.
In the worst-case scenario of runaway sprawl,
Nevada
could lose as many as 178,668 acres of farmland.
23% of the conversion will occur on
Nevada's
best land.
By making smart growth choices and investing in farmland protection today,
Nevada
residents can save 74,600 acres of farmland and ranchland. That is the equivalent of saving 51 farms,
$4 million
in farm output and 129 jobs.
The counties most likely to lose farmland are
Clark County
(which was also the nation's fifth fastest), followed by
Washoe
and
Lyon
.
According to the
Nevada Department of Agriculture
:
Agriculture is one of the state's leading industries.
Nevada's
cattle and cow operations are the largest sector. The state's ranches rank third in size nationally, averaging 3,500 acres.
Other products include dairy, sheep, lambs, and hogs. Alfalfa is the leading cash crop.
On irrigated land, the state grows potatoes, barley, winter and spring wheat, corn, oats, onions, garlic, and honey, along with mint and fruits.
Nevada
agriculture (ranching and farming) contributed
$787.8 million
to the state economy in 2020, according to the 2021
Nevada Department of Agriculture
biennial report.
"As much of the country becomes increasingly inhospitable due to rising temperatures and drought, the states of
Arizona
,
Colorado
,
New Mexico
and
Nevada
may see even greater population pressure than Farms Under Threat was able to identify," said
Kara Heckert
, Resilient Agriculture West Advisor. "The decisions our communities make now, with respect to housing density and urban growth, will be essential in ensuring we can accommodate additional population increases without compromising more farmland and open space."
For a brief summary of national results: National media release (https://farmland.org/new-farms-under-threat-2040-report/).
Register for
August 2, 2022
, Arizona Webinar here: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4002082011242443536
Register for
September 8, 2022
, Colorado Webinar here: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/2688462484190127116
Register for
September 12, 2022
, New Mexico Webinar here: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3533853885042959116
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Original text here: https://farmland.org/new-report-smarter-land-use-planning-is-urgently-needed-to-safeguard-ag-land-in-arizona-colorado-new-mexico-and-nevada-amidst-historic-drought/